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Officialdom - Economy Is DOA, Recession Is Here

 
Inanna of Sumeria
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User ID: 320070
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12/13/2007 06:50 PM
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Officialdom - Economy Is DOA, Recession Is Here
[link to www.telegraph.co.uk]

Morgan Stanley Issues Full US Recession Alert
by Telegraph UK - snip:
12/13/07

Morgan Stanley has issued a full recession alert for the US economy, warning of a sharp slowdown in business investment and a "perfect storm" for consumers as the housing slump spreads. In a report "Recession Coming" released today, the bank's US team said the credit crunch had started to inflict serious damage on US companies. "Slipping sales and tightening credit are pushing companies into liquidation mode, especially in motor vehicles," it said. "Three-month dollar Libor spreads have jumped by 60 to 80 basis points over the last month. High yield spreads have widened even more significantly. The absolute cost of borrowing is higher than in June." "As delinquencies and defaults soar, lenders are tightening credit for commercial, credit card and auto lending, as well as for all mortgage borrowers," said the report, written by the bank's chief US economist Dick Berner. He said the foreclosure rate on residential mortgages had reached a 19-year high of 5.59pc in the third quarter while the glut of unsold properties would lead to a 40pc crash in housing construction. "We think overall housing starts will run below one million units in each of the next two years -- a level not seen in the history of the modern data since 1959," he said.... Morgan Stanley is the first major Wall Street bank to warn that it is may now be too late to stop a recession, though most have shifted to an ultra-cautious stance in recent weeks. The bank at first treated the August crunch as a "mid-cycle correction", much like the financial storm after Russia's default in 1998. But the collapse of the US commercial paper market has now continued for seventeen weeks, suggesting a "fundamental deleveraging of the banking system"...
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 338225
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12/13/2007 06:57 PM
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Re: Officialdom - Economy Is DOA, Recession Is Here
Business is not so good for Banks. Nothing new there. Consumer non-durables are more than a steady diet of Micky D's...)

Lame duck presidencies have a tendency to lack economic steam or presidential concern, we saw that with Clinton and the 2000 market bust and we are seeing major signs of it now. The next President can blame the previous one for 4 years and hopefully get re-elected, but it seems we have been set back 100 years in the last 8.


Good taste in AVs there, OP...)
paladin

User ID: 339602
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12/13/2007 07:16 PM
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Re: Officialdom - Economy Is DOA, Recession Is Here
hey Inanna..

we all here at GLP saw this comming.....

great post
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 337252
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12/13/2007 07:18 PM
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Re: Officialdom - Economy Is DOA, Recession Is Here
yes,, for sure.They threw out their last ditch attempt today.But it will fail.Desperation.I think they got really nervous when gold almost hit 850 yesturday
paladin

User ID: 339602
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12/13/2007 07:27 PM
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Re: Officialdom - Economy Is DOA, Recession Is Here
holly cow batman...hold the press..


Thursday, December 13, 2007
WSJ: Citi to Move SIVs to Balance Sheet

From the WSJ: Citigroup to Bring $49 Billion From SIVs Onto Its Balance Sheet

Citigroup ..., is bailing out seven struggling investment entities, bringing $49 billion onto its beleaguered balance sheet and further denting its depleted capital base.
...
The move could be the death knell for an industry-wide effort to create a rescue fund for the SIVs. ...

The move underscores how quickly Vikram Pandit, who was named Citi's new chief executive on Tuesday, is moving to tackle the myriad problems facing Citigroup. Just two days into his tenure, Mr. Pandit decided to bring the SIV assets onto the bank's balance sheet ...
...
By bringing the SIV assets on its balance sheet, Citigroup's already-depleted capital levels will come under further stress.
...
A Citigroup spokeswoman declined to comment on possible dividend cuts or capital-raising plans.


[link to calculatedrisk.blogspot.com]
Enlilson

User ID: 337505
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12/13/2007 07:33 PM
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Re: Officialdom - Economy Is DOA, Recession Is Here
What you really needs to be watched is the Carry Trade and the implication of on the global economy and since the FED does not publish M2 numbers anymore in the US we have no real idea how fast their feet are paddling under the water surface.

Here is the current news on the carry trade --

[link to www.bloomberg.com]

Here is what was said about it this summer ---

[link to www.forbes.com]

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
It doesn't matter who I m it's who U R so ChoOse
von Doom
User ID: 273970
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12/13/2007 09:38 PM
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Re: Officialdom - Economy Is DOA, Recession Is Here
Also watch the patterns, the stock market being the most notable.

As the fluctuations, both down and up, increase in stature, this is a sure sign of the inevitable impotency of the control mechanisms.
Anonymous Coward
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12/13/2007 09:58 PM
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Re: Officialdom - Economy Is DOA, Recession Is Here
Did these come out after market close?? or before?? hiding
Inanna (OP)
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12/14/2007 09:09 PM
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Re: Officialdom - Economy Is DOA, Recession Is Here
bump





GLP