ALERT: Pandemic update in Thailand. Department of Disease Control says the worst is yet to come. Deaths not peaking until late September

The chief of the Department of Disease Control Dr Opas Kankawinpong gave the latest predictions for the upcoming months based on SEIR mathematical modeling.

Despite the current lockdown measures in place already it made for the stark realisation that when it comes to the pandemic as a whole in Thailand the worst is yet to come.

Dr Opas said that without lockdown measures there would be 40,000 cases a day, reported Sanook yesterday.

The peak would be September 14th.

With lockdown effective to 20-25% over a month there would be 30,000 cases a day.

The worst numbers would be in August.

With lockdown effectiveness of 20-25% over two months cases could be brought down to 20,000 a day.

This was the best case scenario he could offer.

As far as deaths go he said that without lockdown this would be 500 a day with the worst day predicted as September 28th.

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