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Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485

 
Anonymous Coward
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09/14/2021 10:46 PM
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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
10's of millions of people on earth would be wiped out in a matter of some hours. The sad part about it is that the majority of those people are on social media discussing the most mundane and idiotic topics, or watching sports and tv shows in blissful ignorance...smh hiding
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79523846


So if this happens, The Cowboys may finally win the NFC east. eq
 Quoting: Intruth


I live here in NYC....got myself a nice big jug bottle of vodka not too long ago. If and when the shit hits the fan i'll be too hammered to do anything about it when it gets here...congrats on winning the NFC east lol.
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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
Your basing this on the Ward-Day 2001 model. Later studies showed minimal tidal effect along east coast even in a worse case scenario.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77071969


Link? Please? hf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79903136


I found an article that explains in this alternative modeling scenario that a 2 meter (6.5 foot) wave is more likely.

[link to blogs.agu.org (secure)]

I would much prefer this scenario!!
 Quoting: LaGata


you me both
"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.." E. Burke

“As long as there is a breath in your body....there is hope”
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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
If it goes, for those on the coast and inward, fill your bathtubs, fill the car, just in case it's a nothing-burger, but manages to take water & gas out for a few. Move escape tools to the attic for a possible bust out, and don't forget some foodstuffs.

Now, though, search for the highest point in your state or inland state for places to camp, just in case. If it goes, make reservations on the spot.

Pack car and prepare to leave with gas and water, then bugout bag, clothing, more food, fire, shelter. Move what you can up to the attic. Maybe the building will survive tsunami and flood havoc.

Should it lose strength, but still be on the way, move tools to your attic to escape, fill bathtub, expect flooding, start making and freezing extra ice, buy ice now.
 Quoting: TXGLP2


Why would I fill the bathtub if it floods, do I put the tub in the attic?
LaGata

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09/14/2021 10:51 PM
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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
Your basing this on the Ward-Day 2001 model. Later studies showed minimal tidal effect along east coast even in a worse case scenario.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77071969


Link? Please? hf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79903136


I found an article that explains in this alternative modeling scenario that a 2 meter (6.5 foot) wave is more likely.

[link to blogs.agu.org (secure)]

I would much prefer this scenario!!
 Quoting: LaGata


you me both
 Quoting: Disenfranchised Godzilla1980


Here's the statement that sums it up for those who need a little doom relief:

"A change (reduction) in any of these parameters would yield a much smaller tsunami. For example, subsequent work (Abadie et al. 2012) has taken the ““credible worst case scenario” (derived using slope stability analysis), to have a volume of 80 cubic kilometres (but note the factor of safety of the slope was found to be considerably higher than one, indicating that the slope is not particularly unstable).

Modelling of the tsunami generated by such a landslide, using a more refined tsunami simulation, does generate a very significant wave close to La Palma. This wave would be significant as it crossed the continental shelf off the east coast of North America, but would lose a great deal of energy due to frictional effects in this region. Thus, for a 80 cubic kilometre “credible worst case scenario” flank collapse on La Palma, wave heights on the east coast of the USA were found by Tehranirad et al. (2015) to be less than 2 metres along the coastline.

This is not the disastrous scenario that the newspapers have so enjoyed featuring."
~~*NOT* a very nice kitty!~~


"Plan for the worst, hope for the best, and don't live in fear."
Anonymous Coward
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09/14/2021 10:51 PM
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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
9/23
 Quoting: Sentient Transient


around full moon?
LaGata

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09/14/2021 10:52 PM
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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
If it goes, for those on the coast and inward, fill your bathtubs, fill the car, just in case it's a nothing-burger, but manages to take water & gas out for a few. Move escape tools to the attic for a possible bust out, and don't forget some foodstuffs.

Now, though, search for the highest point in your state or inland state for places to camp, just in case. If it goes, make reservations on the spot.

Pack car and prepare to leave with gas and water, then bugout bag, clothing, more food, fire, shelter. Move what you can up to the attic. Maybe the building will survive tsunami and flood havoc.

Should it lose strength, but still be on the way, move tools to your attic to escape, fill bathtub, expect flooding, start making and freezing extra ice, buy ice now.
 Quoting: TXGLP2


Why would I fill the bathtub if it floods, do I put the tub in the attic?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71861255


During floods drinking water is often polluted.

If you can put the tub in the attic you are a person I want on my survival team, haha. :)
~~*NOT* a very nice kitty!~~


"Plan for the worst, hope for the best, and don't live in fear."
Glaxnor
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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
O.K. ,this is slow motion doom ...How long ? 1dunno1 Can the quake tards bring closure here ?poorjohnny
 Quoting: blackdiamond


It's moved from an average of 10km underground to an average of 8km underground in just about 24 hours.

Unless it speeds up, it could easily be another 4 days.

The question is will it find a way to release pressure, like a pre-existing tube, or will it be punching straight through solid rock the whole way.

I'm suspicious we may get a new cone north-north-west of the main one.

That would take 4 days.
Empty Men offer Empty Words and Empty Hearts.
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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
...


Link? Please? hf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79903136


I found an article that explains in this alternative modeling scenario that a 2 meter (6.5 foot) wave is more likely.

[link to blogs.agu.org (secure)]

I would much prefer this scenario!!
 Quoting: LaGata


you me both
 Quoting: Disenfranchised Godzilla1980


Here's the statement that sums it up for those who need a little doom relief:

"A change (reduction) in any of these parameters would yield a much smaller tsunami. For example, subsequent work (Abadie et al. 2012) has taken the ““credible worst case scenario” (derived using slope stability analysis), to have a volume of 80 cubic kilometres (but note the factor of safety of the slope was found to be considerably higher than one, indicating that the slope is not particularly unstable).

Modelling of the tsunami generated by such a landslide, using a more refined tsunami simulation, does generate a very significant wave close to La Palma. This wave would be significant as it crossed the continental shelf off the east coast of North America, but would lose a great deal of energy due to frictional effects in this region. Thus, for a 80 cubic kilometre “credible worst case scenario” flank collapse on La Palma, wave heights on the east coast of the USA were found by Tehranirad et al. (2015) to be less than 2 metres along the coastline.

This is not the disastrous scenario that the newspapers have so enjoyed featuring."
 Quoting: LaGata


that sounds much better than the worse possible scenario, having said that how many scientists back this is that known?
"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.." E. Burke

“As long as there is a breath in your body....there is hope”
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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
O.K. ,this is slow motion doom ...How long ? 1dunno1 Can the quake tards bring closure here ?poorjohnny
 Quoting: blackdiamond


It's moved from an average of 10km underground to an average of 8km underground in just about 24 hours.

Unless it speeds up, it could easily be another 4 days.

The question is will it find a way to release pressure, like a pre-existing tube, or will it be punching straight through solid rock the whole way.

I'm suspicious we may get a new cone north-north-west of the main one.

That would take 4 days.
 Quoting: Glaxnor


we'll know more on that last part once the next analysis of deformation comes out if any
"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.." E. Burke

“As long as there is a breath in your body....there is hope”
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09/14/2021 10:56 PM
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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
9/23
 Quoting: Sentient Transient


Explain. Did you see it?
pish
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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
So how much warning time would we get?
Yes, she knows it's a multipass. Anyway, we're in love.
Anonymous Coward
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09/14/2021 10:58 PM
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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
9/23
 Quoting: Sentient Transient


Explain. Did you see it?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74567769


that is around the full moon
Anonymous Coward
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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
O.K. ,this is slow motion doom ...How long ? 1dunno1 Can the quake tards bring closure here ?poorjohnny
 Quoting: blackdiamond


Ah, one of the secrets of life is to come to the realization that everything happens either not at all, or at the same time.
 Quoting: William Poole


That’s so true.
Glaxnor
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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
O.K. ,this is slow motion doom ...How long ? 1dunno1 Can the quake tards bring closure here ?poorjohnny
 Quoting: blackdiamond


It's moved from an average of 10km underground to an average of 8km underground in just about 24 hours.

Unless it speeds up, it could easily be another 4 days.

The question is will it find a way to release pressure, like a pre-existing tube, or will it be punching straight through solid rock the whole way.

I'm suspicious we may get a new cone north-north-west of the main one.

That would take 4 days.
 Quoting: Glaxnor


we'll know more on that last part once the next analysis of deformation comes out if any
 Quoting: Disenfranchised Godzilla1980


Part of me is super jealous that they are on the ground for something like this, I would love to be able to see this first hand.

A much more significant part of me is glad i am no where near this.
Empty Men offer Empty Words and Empty Hearts.
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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
So how much warning time would we get?
 Quoting: pish


I don't think anyone can answer that with any real certainty, could be hours, days, weeks, months or even years there are so many factors involved and I don't think we are there yet on the science to make anything remotely accurate as far as predicting, everyone is just going off of historical evidence and even then it's a crapshoot
"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.." E. Burke

“As long as there is a breath in your body....there is hope”
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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
O.K. ,this is slow motion doom ...How long ? 1dunno1 Can the quake tards bring closure here ?poorjohnny
 Quoting: blackdiamond


It's moved from an average of 10km underground to an average of 8km underground in just about 24 hours.

Unless it speeds up, it could easily be another 4 days.

The question is will it find a way to release pressure, like a pre-existing tube, or will it be punching straight through solid rock the whole way.

I'm suspicious we may get a new cone north-north-west of the main one.

That would take 4 days.
 Quoting: Glaxnor


we'll know more on that last part once the next analysis of deformation comes out if any
 Quoting: Disenfranchised Godzilla1980


Part of me is super jealous that they are on the ground for something like this, I would love to be able to see this first hand.

A much more significant part of me is glad i am no where near this.
 Quoting: Glaxnor


you me both the science fascinates me, but mother nature isn't to be trifled with
"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.." E. Burke

“As long as there is a breath in your body....there is hope”
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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
A Krakatoa event is absolutely possible. Once magma is exposed to cold water.
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09/14/2021 11:01 PM

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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
Previous eruptions were effusive in nature.Just lava coming out of vents.And it created instability and visible crack along Cumbre Vieja volcanic ridge .Best scenario is nothing happening but with these quakes non stop eruption risk is rising every day.
 Quoting: Mister Pillarr


agreed and the more magma filling that chamber the bigger the chance for a seriously explosive eruption is that right?
 Quoting: Disenfranchised Godzilla1980


Yes that's right.And also quakes create more fractures in the Island of La Palma
 Quoting: Mister Pillarr


Some of these quakes will be the result of super heated deep ground water creating cracks. This is letting the magma have an easier route to the surface and it picks up speed.

If the world makes it's quarter turn this year, September 23rd would make sense. Equinox marks the spot in orbit (or the opposite) for whatever hit us to tilt the planet.
Chaos is a ladder...only The Climb is real.
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09/14/2021 11:03 PM
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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
GREAT Information here-

"Quote" But for U. S. mid-Atlantic communities there is the possibility for surprise tsunamis that may be generated locally and without warning. As presented at the beginning of this article, sediments along the outer continental margin are so soggy and gas charged that they can slump spontaneously. Marine geologists identified fresh slump scars last year off New Jersey, and Driscoll, and others, recently found a 25-mile-long system of cracks along the shelf edge off southern Virginia. These cracks lie just north of the approximately 16,000-year-old (Albemarle) submarine landslide."

[link to www.huttoncommentaries.com (secure)]
pish
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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
So how much warning time would we get?
 Quoting: pish


I don't think anyone can answer that with any real certainty, could be hours, days, weeks, months or even years there are so many factors involved and I don't think we are there yet on the science to make anything remotely accurate as far as predicting, everyone is just going off of historical evidence and even then it's a crapshoot
 Quoting: Disenfranchised Godzilla1980


Sorry, not for the eruption.

Assuming it happens, how long does it take the wave to travel to the east coast?
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Disenfranchised Godzilla1980
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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
So how much warning time would we get?
 Quoting: pish


I don't think anyone can answer that with any real certainty, could be hours, days, weeks, months or even years there are so many factors involved and I don't think we are there yet on the science to make anything remotely accurate as far as predicting, everyone is just going off of historical evidence and even then it's a crapshoot
 Quoting: Disenfranchised Godzilla1980


Sorry, not for the eruption.

Assuming it happens, how long does it take the wave to travel to the east coast?
 Quoting: pish


between 7-9 hours are the estimates
"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.." E. Burke

“As long as there is a breath in your body....there is hope”
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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
Is 30 miles approx from the coast too close? Elevation 170 ft...
.
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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
Is 30 miles approx from the coast too close? Elevation 170 ft...
 Quoting: Beefree1000



I think you'll be ok
"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.." E. Burke

“As long as there is a breath in your body....there is hope”
Anonymous Coward
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09/14/2021 11:06 PM
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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
So how much warning time would we get?
 Quoting: pish


I don't think anyone can answer that with any real certainty, could be hours, days, weeks, months or even years there are so many factors involved and I don't think we are there yet on the science to make anything remotely accurate as far as predicting, everyone is just going off of historical evidence and even then it's a crapshoot
 Quoting: Disenfranchised Godzilla1980


Sorry, not for the eruption.

Assuming it happens, how long does it take the wave to travel to the east coast?
 Quoting: pish


Roughly 7 to 9 hours.
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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
Any nuclear power plants to worry about on the east coast of Africa or in southern Europe?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 80863141


There are no (0) nuclear power plants in the whole continent of Africa.
 Quoting: A Jackson


The South Africans had nuclear weapons for a time. Do they have no reactors now?
Chaos is a ladder...only The Climb is real.
Anonymous Coward
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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
So how much warning time would we get?
 Quoting: pish


I don't think anyone can answer that with any real certainty, could be hours, days, weeks, months or even years there are so many factors involved and I don't think we are there yet on the science to make anything remotely accurate as far as predicting, everyone is just going off of historical evidence and even then it's a crapshoot
 Quoting: Disenfranchised Godzilla1980


Sorry, not for the eruption.

Assuming it happens, how long does it take the wave to travel to the east coast?
 Quoting: pish


They say about 6 hours going at 450 mph!
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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
havent seen any updates on the ign site in over a half hour is that normal?
"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.." E. Burke

“As long as there is a breath in your body....there is hope”
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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
O.K. ,this is slow motion doom ...How long ? 1dunno1 Can the quake tards bring closure here ?poorjohnny
 Quoting: blackdiamond


It's moved from an average of 10km underground to an average of 8km underground in just about 24 hours.

Unless it speeds up, it could easily be another 4 days.

The question is will it find a way to release pressure, like a pre-existing tube, or will it be punching straight through solid rock the whole way.

I'm suspicious we may get a new cone north-north-west of the main one.

That would take 4 days.
 Quoting: Glaxnor


we'll know more on that last part once the next analysis of deformation comes out if any
 Quoting: Disenfranchised Godzilla1980


Part of me is super jealous that they are on the ground for something like this, I would love to be able to see this first hand.

A much more significant part of me is glad i am no where near this.
 Quoting: Glaxnor


Just saw a YT vidro from La Palma. The speakers sounded really scared in spite of the fact they were telling people to calm down.
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09/14/2021 11:08 PM
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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
Remember that dude who attached balloons to his lawn chair & floated away?

What a great escape from a tsunami.
VQC

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09/14/2021 11:08 PM

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Re: Cumbre Vieja volcano unrest! More explosive activity today ,with large amounts of ash! pg 485
I have a problem with some of these estimates of
The tsunami that would hit the east coast
The kinetic energy would dissipate over the distance and spread over the Atlantic basin
Plus the opposing currents would act like speed bumps...
 Quoting: Apocalypse now


Me too. Way overblown.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 75866855


> The kinetic energy would dissipate over the distance and spread over the Atlantic basin

That's taken into account with models.

>Plus the opposing currents would act like speed bumps...

That's not how wave propagation works.
 Quoting: VQC


Many factors play a role the kinetic energy involved distance spread and including water currants wind currents high tide low tide ect.
 Quoting: Apocalypse now


You're not understanding complexity type thinking (the math field). That shit you just mentioned is important if you are going fishing and it's a bit bumpy. Doesn't fucking matter at all at the SCALE we are discussing.
Chaos is a ladder...only The Climb is real.





GLP