FOR CORONACOASTER: COVID-19 News, Info, Discussion /// Tracking the Spread of the Virus and its Effects

i head on the radio yesterday that they now admit the 6 foot rule for SD is not enuf. they did say that 6ft wasn't even enuf outside.

since we never got a chart to show us the probable deaths via population changes by using societal data such as cell phone usage,food sales,etc, these excess deaths are our best guide to what the real totals are. do we have enuf of this info by now to see the excess deaths for all countries back to 2019?

has anyone placed a chart of excess deaths against the countries covid case graph? how far out before we see deaths starting from those 1st infected? i figure we should see those infected starting to die in mass within 2ys. those who "recovered" are still being damaged internally by the virus.

Here's the latest situation animated over the last 8 weeks or so.

Week 47
=======
Weekly CASE DoubleVax vs. Unvax
[link to ibb.co (secure)]

Weekly CASE AnyVax vs. Unvax
[link to ibb.co (secure)]

(Note ^ this one is my own (HSA does not publish))

Now, Deaths...

First: the replication plot of HSA Deaths by age-group and vaccination status (inset is the official HSA plot, freezes at week 42.):
[link to ibb.co (secure)]

Next my own plot showing a 'worst-case' where we add the weekly "mystery deaths" to the vaccinated column (the idea being to look for the worst-case in terms of vaccine-induced deaths).
[link to ibb.co (secure)]


As pointed out, there's pregnancy data in this report.

Also I sense a shifting of cases from older-to-younger age groups in the last 3 weeks or so. Not much, though..
EDIT could be effect of boosters (currently being rolled out in over 40s..)

Last Edited by S-man on 11/25/2021 11:16 AM

They will double down on the vac though.

But if its as reported massively more transmissible we are all doomed

I was blissfully ignorant until the first week of February 2020. Then I got smacked with it.

Potentially some stability in UK numbers..

https://twitter.com/_/status/1463909856876838914

Great work as always. Thanks.

SA vaccinations at 40 doses per 100, so does not necessarily point towards vaccine-induced ADE, to me.

COULD still be COVID-induced ADE - like the different strains of Dengue.

But, perhaps more likely, we are all going to be exposed if it is really airborne.

You're all welcome.
Happy thanksgiving to our American amigos.

So this variant could have developed in someone with AIDS. Over 20% of Botswana’s population is HIV positive so the likelihood of that scenario is high.

That graph says to me that we are in gigantic trouble.

Wales played South Africa in Cardiff 3 weeks ago in a rugby match.The SA team also played in London and Edinburgh recently and brought a fair few fans with them.

There are calls for all flights out of SA and Botswana to be halted but it’s probably too late.

That graph is really bad news and desont bode well for the next 5 weeks. geez.

Will this clear up the reinfection debate - it’s nothing to worry about if it does happen

[link to www.nejm.org (secure)]

Reinfections had 90% lower odds of resulting in hospitalization or death than primary infections. Four reinfections were severe enough to lead to acute care hospitalization. None led to hospitalization in an ICU, and none ended in death. Reinfections were rare and were generally mild, perhaps because of the primed immune system after primary infection.

Last Edited by ParamedicUK on 11/25/2021 01:32 PM

Higher highs, lower lows.

Will the boosters change that. Tune in next week to find out. .

https://twitter.com/_/status/1463936446495170568

Thats some sales pitch.
.
But the data from Israel days its lies.

https://twitter.com/_/status/1463898342229000196

Just a 17 year old caught on camera collapsing. What are the odds?

https://twitter.com/_/status/1463779732860846081

Dropping like Wuhan droppers from 2019

Something weird is going on

Happy Thanksgiving everyone, hopefully it isn't our last.

:turkey:

What do you know. The UK government may actually act speedily..

https://twitter.com/_/status/1463970674477834249

https://twitter.com/_/status/1463973525249835009

Posted above

Last Edited by Roughwildfly on 11/25/2021 03:56 PM

Best to you, dude, and your family.

This wont matter when you import thousands of paki's everyday.


You are gonna need new shots for everyone holy lol and mRNA is the only method to which they can be made that quickly.



Gotta get more jabs, so the virus mutates more, so you can get more mRNA jabs...so the virus mutates more...to get more jabs


Our response to this Reminds me of this

Germany..

https://twitter.com/_/status/1463979195978166275

The dews don’t want that shite either

https://twitter.com/_/status/1463980260224077829

Wow this is depressing.

The other countries need to ban travel also immediately with the rapid spread of this new variant but the US is on a holiday weekend till Monday…

I’d hope we do travel restrictions correctly this time for this variant…already in several countries and likely not being tested for so we don’t really know how far and fast it’s spreading….

The last thing a highly jabbed country needs is an escape variant - unless you are unjabbed.

Remember d_senti's post?

-----
Keep your eyes peeled for an AY variant with the following four mutations:
K417N
N439K
E484K
N501Y

This, or the removal of stop codons from the ORF3b site, will mean things will get 10x worse in very short order.
-----

I'm gonna try to get the uniprot FASTA sequence for this Botswana variant.
I will also try and run it through PLAAC.

In the mean time, if anybody HAS a link to the new spike sequence, pls share!