covidestim

[link to covidestim.org (secure)]

covidestim tries to paint a complete, current, and granular picture of the U.S. COVID-19 epidemic. We use an in-house statistical model that combines evidence on COVID-19 transmission, natural history and diagnosis with reported cases and deaths for nearly every state and county in the US. Our methodology can be found on medRxiv, with regular updates to our model documented here. You can run our model with your own data, using the covidestim R package. State- and county-level data are sourced from Johns Hopkins CSSE. We fit counties using the BFGS optimization algorithm, and state models using the slower HMC algorithm, which yields uncertainty intervals. When a state run takes too long, we rerun it with BFGS and use a method to estimate the .
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Interesting. We are nearing or already at peak over coronavirus. Florida is in free fall right now. I just find it coincidence that someone from CDC or whatever said months ago said that we would see the end of pandemic by February. And.... this happens.