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Did you catch that? The Fed raised rates and within two biz weeks the yield curve inverted! Recession doom straight ahead!

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78846383
United States
03/31/2022 01:14 PM
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Re: Did you catch that? The Fed raised rates and within two biz weeks the yield curve inverted! Recession doom straight ahead!
Doom for sure...inverted yield curves usually are a lagging product of rate hikes...this happened after 1 with 7 more on the horizon!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78846383


It's not just the 2 to 10 year bond inversion:

About a year ago the 2-10 spread was 159 basis points and is now just 6 basis points.

Six Inversions

20-Year to 30-Year: 15 Basis Points
7-Year to 10-Year: 9 Basis Points
5-Year to 10-Year: 8 Basis Points
5-Year to 3-Year: 5 Basis Points
3-Year to 10-Year: 13 Basis Points
3-Year to 30-Year: 1 Basis Point

Inversions (shorter-duration bonds yielding more than longer-duration bonds) are a sign of a weakening economy and a recession.

The most widely watched recession harbinger is the 2-10 spread which briefly inverted intraday on March 29 but finishing the day at a positive 6 basis points.


Less than 50%

[link to mishtalk.com (secure)]
Boiling Frog

User ID: 82630951
United States
03/31/2022 01:23 PM
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Re: Did you catch that? The Fed raised rates and within two biz weeks the yield curve inverted! Recession doom straight ahead!
March 17, the Fed raises rates for the first time since 2018: [link to baystreet.ca]

March 30, the yield curve inverts, indicating an impending recesion: [link to www.barrons.com (secure)]

1dunno1
 Quoting: Polynonymous Howard 82487843


This is the primary reason there is a high chance of another WW.
LET'S GO BRANDON!!!

Ego imperium repraesentabo nope nos repraesentat!

My location says Canada sometimes, even though I'm in America.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78846383
United States
03/31/2022 01:29 PM
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Re: Did you catch that? The Fed raised rates and within two biz weeks the yield curve inverted! Recession doom straight ahead!
Good 10 minute video that explains with data and graphs how nearly every time yield curves have inverted, there has been a recession anywhere from 3-14 months:

Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 82487843
Ukraine
03/31/2022 01:38 PM
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Re: Did you catch that? The Fed raised rates and within two biz weeks the yield curve inverted! Recession doom straight ahead!
Doom for sure...inverted yield curves usually are a lagging product of rate hikes...this happened after 1 with 7 more on the horizon!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78846383


It's not just the 2 to 10 year bond inversion:

About a year ago the 2-10 spread was 159 basis points and is now just 6 basis points.

Six Inversions

20-Year to 30-Year: 15 Basis Points
7-Year to 10-Year: 9 Basis Points
5-Year to 10-Year: 8 Basis Points
5-Year to 3-Year: 5 Basis Points
3-Year to 10-Year: 13 Basis Points
3-Year to 30-Year: 1 Basis Point

Inversions (shorter-duration bonds yielding more than longer-duration bonds) are a sign of a weakening economy and a recession.

The most widely watched recession harbinger is the 2-10 spread which briefly inverted intraday on March 29 but finishing the day at a positive 6 basis points.


Less than 50%

[link to mishtalk.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 78846383


wtf 10

Mish is pretty good.
John Dutton
Progress just hit my wall

User ID: 82505097
United States
03/31/2022 01:51 PM

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Re: Did you catch that? The Fed raised rates and within two biz weeks the yield curve inverted! Recession doom straight ahead!
March 17, the Fed raises rates for the first time since 2018: [link to baystreet.ca]

March 30, the yield curve inverts, indicating an impending recesion: [link to www.barrons.com (secure)]

1dunno1
 Quoting: Polynonymous Howard 82487843


we should have had a recession back in 2016 following the normal every 7 to 8 years.
"I'm Just Meaner Than You"
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 78846383
United States
03/31/2022 02:00 PM
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Re: Did you catch that? The Fed raised rates and within two biz weeks the yield curve inverted! Recession doom straight ahead!
March 17, the Fed raises rates for the first time since 2018: [link to baystreet.ca]

March 30, the yield curve inverts, indicating an impending recesion: [link to www.barrons.com (secure)]

1dunno1
 Quoting: Polynonymous Howard 82487843


we should have had a recession back in 2016 following the normal every 7 to 8 years.
 Quoting: John Dutton


There was a recession....most missed it...interesting article:

The pain was confined mostly to the energy and agricultural sectors and to the portions of the manufacturing economy that supply them with equipment. Overall economic growth slowed but remained in positive territory. The national unemployment rate kept falling. Anyone who didn’t work in energy, agriculture or manufacturing could be forgiven for not noticing it at all.

Yet understanding this slump — think of it as a mini-recession — is important in many ways.

It helps explain the economic growth spurt of the last two years. The end of the mini-recession in the spring of 2016 created a capital spending rebound that began in mid-2016, and it has contributed to speedier growth since. Oil prices have reached four-year highs, a major factor in a surge in business investment this year.


Less than 50%

[link to www.nytimes.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 36257481
United Kingdom
03/31/2022 02:06 PM
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Re: Did you catch that? The Fed raised rates and within two biz weeks the yield curve inverted! Recession doom straight ahead!
What is your "it"?

Dollar flash crash?

Stock market crash?

What exactly are we betting on?


===================================

Complete financial and societal collapse followed by CW followed by the breakup of the Union.


That is what has been planned and is now in motion.

Now you know why all those "special groups" were created.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 79068138
Argentina
03/31/2022 02:14 PM
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Re: Did you catch that? The Fed raised rates and within two biz weeks the yield curve inverted! Recession doom straight ahead!
trying to fight inflation due to "supply chain interruptions"
+ "sanctions-on-russia-stick-hits-back-energy_supply-squeeze" type situation by raising rates - STUPIDEST fucking idea only idiots can come up with !

you raise rates in this special environment - you only exacerbate the growth problem !
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 82665612
Canada
03/31/2022 02:32 PM
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Re: Did you catch that? The Fed raised rates and within two biz weeks the yield curve inverted! Recession doom straight ahead!
rates will be lowered and inflation will reverse, very soon
RedHeadedStepChild

User ID: 79098910
United States
03/31/2022 02:40 PM
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Re: Did you catch that? The Fed raised rates and within two biz weeks the yield curve inverted! Recession doom straight ahead!
rates will be lowered and inflation will reverse, very soon
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 82665612


Send over some of that shit you're smoking cuz I want to be high enough to believe it.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 82669110
United Kingdom
03/31/2022 02:50 PM
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Re: Did you catch that? The Fed raised rates and within two biz weeks the yield curve inverted! Recession doom straight ahead!
well they did wait about 10years too long to start raising rates and i bet they are still printing money as fast as they can
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 79128431
Czech Republic
06/14/2022 09:19 AM
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Re: Did you catch that? The Fed raised rates and within two biz weeks the yield curve inverted! Recession doom straight ahead!
bump

It's on!

The yield curve inverted again. That's twice.

Link: [link to www.wsj.com (secure)]

The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted overnight, a closely-watched metric that is considered to be an indicator of an upcoming recession.
 Quoting: Wall Street Journal


bump
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 79128431
Czech Republic
06/14/2022 09:52 AM
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Re: Did you catch that? The Fed raised rates and within two biz weeks the yield curve inverted! Recession doom straight ahead!
bump





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