Did you catch that? The Fed raised rates and within two biz weeks the yield curve inverted! Recession doom straight ahead!

It's not just the 2 to 10 year bond inversion:

About a year ago the 2-10 spread was 159 basis points and is now just 6 basis points.

Six Inversions

20-Year to 30-Year: 15 Basis Points
7-Year to 10-Year: 9 Basis Points
5-Year to 10-Year: 8 Basis Points
5-Year to 3-Year: 5 Basis Points
3-Year to 10-Year: 13 Basis Points
3-Year to 30-Year: 1 Basis Point

Inversions (shorter-duration bonds yielding more than longer-duration bonds) are a sign of a weakening economy and a recession.

The most widely watched recession harbinger is the 2-10 spread which briefly inverted intraday on March 29 but finishing the day at a positive 6 basis points.

Less than 50%

[link to mishtalk.com (secure)]

This is the primary reason there is a high chance of another WW.

Good 10 minute video that explains with data and graphs how nearly every time yield curves have inverted, there has been a recession anywhere from 3-14 months:

Mish is pretty good.

we should have had a recession back in 2016 following the normal every 7 to 8 years.

There was a recession....most missed it...interesting article:

The pain was confined mostly to the energy and agricultural sectors and to the portions of the manufacturing economy that supply them with equipment. Overall economic growth slowed but remained in positive territory. The national unemployment rate kept falling. Anyone who didn’t work in energy, agriculture or manufacturing could be forgiven for not noticing it at all.

Yet understanding this slump — think of it as a mini-recession — is important in many ways.

It helps explain the economic growth spurt of the last two years. The end of the mini-recession in the spring of 2016 created a capital spending rebound that began in mid-2016, and it has contributed to speedier growth since. Oil prices have reached four-year highs, a major factor in a surge in business investment this year.

Less than 50%

[link to www.nytimes.com (secure)]

What is your "it"?

Dollar flash crash?

Stock market crash?

What exactly are we betting on?


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Complete financial and societal collapse followed by CW followed by the breakup of the Union.


That is what has been planned and is now in motion.

Now you know why all those "special groups" were created.

trying to fight inflation due to "supply chain interruptions"
+ "sanctions-on-russia-stick-hits-back-energy_supply-squeeze" type situation by raising rates - STUPIDEST fucking idea only idiots can come up with !

you raise rates in this special environment - you only exacerbate the growth problem !

rates will be lowered and inflation will reverse, very soon

Send over some of that shit you're smoking cuz I want to be high enough to believe it.

well they did wait about 10years too long to start raising rates and i bet they are still printing money as fast as they can

It's on!

The yield curve inverted again. That's twice.

Link: [link to www.wsj.com (secure)]