NTI Monkeypox Scenario published 2021…!!!

Move 1 (occurring on June 5, 2022, in scenario time) starts with an unusual outbreak of monkeypox in Brinia (population 250 million), with reports of 1,421 cases and four fatalities. There is no immediate evidence of international spread, but the outbreak takes place during a national holiday with extensive domestic and international travel by Brinians. Because monkeypox is not naturally found in Brinia, local and international experts consider this outbreak to be unusual. The Brinian government welcomes international outbreak investigations and requests medical support from the WHO. Genome sequencing of monkeypox patient samples reveals that the strain in Brinia contains mutations that make it resistant to existing vaccines.
The discussion that followed considered how the international system is postured to analyze initial indicators of pandemic risk and to communicate appropriate warnings.
Move 2 (January 10, 2023) occurs six months later, at which point the virus has spread to 83 countries with 70 million reported cases, causing more than 1.3 million fatalities. With no known effective therapies or vaccines, countries have had to rely principally on non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the impacts of the pandemic. Highlighting significantly different national outcomes in managing the pandemic, some governments, including the fictional Republic of Dranma, promptly adopted aggressive measures to slow virus transmission by shutting down mass gatherings, imposing social-distancing measures, and implementing mask mandates. These countries have also established large-scale testing and contact-tracing operations and scaled-up their health care systems to support anticipated growing case numbers. By contrast, the scenario depicts another group of countries, including fictional Cardus, that have prioritized keeping their economies open, undertaking little-to-no NPIs, and downplaying the virus and its potential impacts. These countries have experienced much worse outcomes in terms of illness and mortality (Figure 2) than those that responded early and energetically. As Figure 3 shows, Dranma experienced far fewer cases and fatalities than Cardus. [link to www.nti.org (secure)]

Last Edited by Damn...!!! on 05/22/2022 10:04 AM