Ukraine was the "retreat before the advancing enemy" part of the Russian strategy in terms of World War 3. This is what they always do as a nation at the start of every major - rather than minor - conflict.

Bulgaria is the "now the winter kills you" part of the Russian strategy this time round.

Russian winter tends to be fast, bitter and deadly. Then it gets worse and continues for a long enough time to clear the result.

The Russian retreat process is laborious and costly by contrast. Slow, arduous, massive loss of resources, you know how this pattern goes by now. This is the phase during which they deliberately entangle karma at the group level.

In terms of major conflict, the Russians always play the twist at the end. This is why their first move is always to entangle rather than to sacrifice something or win quickly.