The Guns of August ... 2022 version

The Guns of August ... 2022 version

August is a fateful time wrt Wars actually starting though often the precipitating event preceded the actual start of the War by weeks or even months. August is now upon us and the chess board is now set up for W.A.R.


1) Iran/Israel ...

Israel has long said that they will NOT allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon. Iran has in the last two weeks disclosed that they now have enough enriched uranium (60% enriched) for the making of a bomb, and with their new high speed centrifuges that came on line about 3 weeks ago when combined with their current centrifuges Iran should have enough for 3 bombs probably sometime in September (same quantity just enriched further to 90%).

Once the material is produced the experts say it only takes about two weeks to actually make a bomb. Israel if it is fulfill it's long held statements WILL HAVE TO MOVE SOON against Iran. August looks like the prime time. The only question now being will it remain conventional or will Israel use a nuke to get the DEEPLY BURIED Iranian enrichment facilities.

Don't forget the Sunni/Shiite divide that floats through this War dynamic. That adds the possibility of a rapid escalation way past Israel/Iran


2) China/Taiwan (will the US become directly involved?)


China has made it clear that they will consider a visit to Taiwan by Speaker Pelosi to be tantamount to an ACT OF WAR. In addition they say the use of US combat aircraft to escort her plane in WILL BE AN ACT OF WAR.

Will she? or Won't she? visit Taiwan?

China seeking to take over Taiwan is coming soon, (imo Xi's schedule is probably October due to weather in the straits issues) but a Pelosi visit could speed up the time table to begin actual shooting events starting in August.

Got darts? What is the date it begins? ... The issue as to "IF" has already been decided, only the timing remains uncertain.


3) Russia/Nato-US

Ukraine is preparing for it's offensive in southern Ukraine. That offensive will determine whether Russia can seize the entire south of Ukraine that borders on the Black Sea OR if Russia starts to lose the question of them resorting to tactic nuclear weapons floats over that upcoming battleground.

In any case the Nato-US trying to wage a Proxy War against Russia will eventually run past the patience of Russia and it WILL eventually decide to DIRECTLY go after those creating the Proxy War. That limit may be reached in the next few weeks, in fact the decision may already have been made by Russia. A move in August would give Russia the opportunity to complete it's military objective of taking over ALL of southern Ukraine before winter even if heavy fighting was required in the final battles for the cities of southern Ukraine.


4) Finally ... The Balkans are HEATING UP. AGAIN.


The ethnic tensions in The Balkans are never far beneath the surface. The hatred between neighbors there is intense and killing of one's neighbors is seen as perfectly justified by ALL sides. Unlikely that even open battles there would create a major War a second time, the rest of the world would probably just roll their eyes and look away, but stranger things have happened in history.


The Guns of August.
When "short little wars" that will be "over by Christmas" start

(if you have never read the book NOW would be a good time to pick it up and read it over the next week or so)

Last Edited by Midwest Skeptic on 07/31/2022 11:43 PM