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Typical White Fact-Based Reasoning ~ Is fear of black people a racial stereotype bred into us like Obama said? Or is it real?

 
PACNWguy
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03/24/2008 03:16 PM
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Typical White Fact-Based Reasoning ~ Is fear of black people a racial stereotype bred into us like Obama said? Or is it real?
Typical White Fact-Based Reasoning
By Randall Hoven

Senator Barack Obama said in his memoir, The Audacity of Hope, "The arguments of liberals are more often grounded in reason and fact." Yet he also claimed that to fear a black person on the street more than a white person is a racial "stereotype", "bred" into us.

To the contrary, such a fear is actually "grounded in reason and fact." When the numbers are crunched, a black person is almost six times more likely than a white person to be a murderer.Senator Barack Obama in his Race Speech said his white grandmother "once confessed her fear of black men who passed by her on the street". In a follow-up interview he clarified that remark by saying,

"She is a typical white person who, you know, if she sees somebody on the street that she doesn't know, there is a reaction. That has been bred into our experiences that don't go away and that sometimes come out in the wrong way." He described such feelings as, "racial or ethnic stereotypes that made me cringe."

It is true that Jesse Jackson confessed to the same fear . More importantly, that fear is a rational one, borne out by "reason and fact". The data are available.


The U.S. Justice Department provides a breakdown of homicides by the race of both the victim and offender. Looking at the data for 2005 (the latest year available), we find that whites committed 48.0% of all murders and blacks committed 51.2% of all murders.

However, whites outnumber blacks in the population. In fact, non-Hispanic whites are about 69% of the population and blacks are about 13% .

These statistics alone, that blacks are 13% of the population but commit 51.2% of the murders, indicate that blacks commit a seriously disproportionate number of murders.

What we would like to find specifically is the likelihood that a given person is a murderer. The Justice department also provides overall murder rates. In 2004 (last year of available data), 5.9 people were murdered out of every 100,000. Since some of those were multiple murders, let's assume that only 5 people of every 100,000 were murderers. That is, the chance that some person you see on the street will murder someone this year, knowing nothing else, is about 5 in 100,000.

From all this data, we can use either Bayes' theorem or a table of relative frequencies to answer our question of "What is the chance that a person is a murderer (or will murder someone this year), given we know that person's race?" I provide a table of relative frequencies below, since that is usually easier to understand than Bayes' theorem. (The table is based on a total population of 10 million for illustration purposes only; the total population does not matter for relative frequencies or computing likelihoods.)


Link to chart:
[link to www.americanthinker.com]


Feel free to satisfy yourself that the frequencies cited above are reflected in this table. That is, whites are about 69% of the population and 48% of the murderers, etc.

But now look only at columns of that table. Of 6,899,895 whites, for example, 240 of them are murderers. That is a rate of 3.5 per 100,000. (Without knowing a person's race, that rate was 5 per 100,000, which is borne out in the rightmost column of the table.) Now look at the column for Blacks. The rate there is 19.7 per 100,000.

That is, the chance of just any person you see on the street murdering someone this year is about 5 of 100,000 (assuming you see a random sample of people). The same chance of a white person is 3.5 of 100,000. And the same chance for a black person is 19.7 of 100,000. That means a black person is 5.6 times more likely than a white person to be a murderer.

It is totally rational for a any person (including Jesse Jackson and Barack Obama's grandmother) to fear a black person more than a white one. In fact, you should fear them 5.6 times more.

obama
OBAMA - THE FASTEST FAILED PRESIDENT IN AMERICAN HISTORY

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Anonymous Coward
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03/24/2008 03:21 PM
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Re: Typical White Fact-Based Reasoning ~ Is fear of black people a racial stereotype bred into us like Obama said? Or is it real?
I don't fear regular black people, only black politicians that employ sweeping generalizations to foment guilt for votes.
Anonymous Coward
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03/24/2008 03:22 PM
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Re: Typical White Fact-Based Reasoning ~ Is fear of black people a racial stereotype bred into us like Obama said? Or is it real?
welcome back.

getting banned blows.
TAURUS PT-92
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03/24/2008 03:23 PM
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Re: Typical White Fact-Based Reasoning ~ Is fear of black people a racial stereotype bred into us like Obama said? Or is it real?
I don't trust anyone walking down the street--late at night anyway. Glad I live in a state that allows concealed carry for guns.
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03/24/2008 03:24 PM
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Re: Typical White Fact-Based Reasoning ~ Is fear of black people a racial stereotype bred into us like Obama said? Or is it real?
Thread: Black On White Crime Stats
Anonymous Coward
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03/24/2008 03:24 PM
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Re: Typical White Fact-Based Reasoning ~ Is fear of black people a racial stereotype bred into us like Obama said? Or is it real?
Thread: Black On White Crime Stats
Anonymous Coward
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03/24/2008 03:29 PM
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Re: Typical White Fact-Based Reasoning ~ Is fear of black people a racial stereotype bred into us like Obama said? Or is it real?
Fear?? I have noticed that it is "blacks" that run in packs... not "whites". Who is afraid of whom?
Anonymous Coward
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03/24/2008 03:30 PM
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Re: Typical White Fact-Based Reasoning ~ Is fear of black people a racial stereotype bred into us like Obama said? Or is it real?
Oh boy, love to open those can's of worms don't 'ya? lol If this keeps up we just might see race riots in vogue again -- especially if we get a real hot summer! Throw in some illegal aliens and we've got us a hoedown!
Rota

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03/24/2008 03:37 PM
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Re: Typical White Fact-Based Reasoning ~ Is fear of black people a racial stereotype bred into us like Obama said? Or is it real?
Fear?? I have noticed that it is "blacks" that run in packs... not "whites". Who is afraid of whom?
 Quoting: NightWisp

Wolf pack, gang mentality is always a threat to people....Blacks and latinos embrace this way of life. Its no sterotype...it is reality.
Anonymous Coward
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03/24/2008 03:40 PM
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Re: Typical White Fact-Based Reasoning ~ Is fear of black people a racial stereotype bred into us like Obama said? Or is it real?
I don't fear regular black people, only black politicians that employ sweeping generalizations to foment guilt for votes.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2711



If you encounter a big young black or several blacks in an isolated circumstance, and you don't get your guard up, then you are an idiot. If you encountered the same circumstance with young white guys, they probably won't raise your fears. People who don't understand that are the ones calling 911 around where I live.
12Follow
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03/24/2008 03:46 PM
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Re: Typical White Fact-Based Reasoning ~ Is fear of black people a racial stereotype bred into us like Obama said? Or is it real?
hey pac, how do you feel about your candidate mccain talking nonsense to a table and then pissing himself? just wondering.
Whitey
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03/24/2008 03:51 PM
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Re: Typical White Fact-Based Reasoning ~ Is fear of black people a racial stereotype bred into us like Obama said? Or is it real?
OP you racist cock sucking bastard GET A LIFE and leave them blacks alone bsflag
Codition Orange
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03/24/2008 03:51 PM
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Re: Typical White Fact-Based Reasoning ~ Is fear of black people a racial stereotype bred into us like Obama said? Or is it real?
I don't fear regular black people, only black politicians that employ sweeping generalizations to foment guilt for votes.



If you encounter a big young black or several blacks in an isolated circumstance, and you don't get your guard up, then you are an idiot. If you encountered the same circumstance with young white guys, they probably won't raise your fears. People who don't understand that are the ones calling 911 around where I live.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 397713

My gaurd is always up, and I carry a concealed handgun.
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03/24/2008 03:55 PM

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Re: Typical White Fact-Based Reasoning ~ Is fear of black people a racial stereotype bred into us like Obama said? Or is it real?
t-shirt purchased this weekend in Vegas

:obamat2:
"If there is a new fascism, it won't come from skinheads and punks; it will come from people who eat granola and think they know how the world should be." - Brian Eno
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03/24/2008 04:01 PM
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Re: Typical White Fact-Based Reasoning ~ Is fear of black people a racial stereotype bred into us like Obama said? Or is it real?
WHEN THE SUN IS SHINING AND I LOOK UP AND SAY "OH LOOK, THE SUN IS SHINING" NO ONE GETS INTO A PISSING CONTEST WITH ME ABOUT HOW SOME DAYS THE SUN ISN'T AS BRIGHT, LIKE WHEN IT'S CLOUDY AND SOMETIMES WHEN THE MOON IS FULL IT'S LIGHTER OUT THAN WHEN IT'S IN THE MIDDLE OF A BLIZZARD EVEN IF THE BLIZZARD IS GOING ON AT NOON.

WITH RACE THERE'S ALL THIS PROPAGANDA/MULITCULTURALISM INVESTMENT/WE ALL BE EKWALZ BS YOU HAVE TO DEAL WITH SO THAT YOU CAN'T POINT OUT THE OVERWHELMINGLY OBVIOUS GENERALIZATIONS THAT ARE THE HUMAN EQUIVALENT OF "THE SUN IS SHINING".

SO IF YOU'RE LOOKING FOR A SHORT ANSWER, YEAH, IT'S BRED INTO US, BUT IT'S BRAINWASHED OUT OF MOST OF US- TO OUR MUTUAL DETRIMENT.

REMEMBER, IF WHITE PEOPLE BE EXTINCT, YO, NO MORE ORANGE SODA AND SHIT.





GLP