U.S. government 3-month rates rose above the yield on 10-year bonds, according to U.S. Treasury data for Oct. 18, 2022. This is fairly unusual and researchers regard this as among the best indicators that a U.S. recession is coming on a 6-18 month view. This indicator is among the best track records in forecasting recessions across a range of economic variables. It has successfully called all recessions in recent decades without any false alarms.

Big news. Bigger news than the guy pooping publicly.