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Old Solar Cycle Returns

 
Niccolò
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03/29/2008 02:19 PM
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Old Solar Cycle Returns
Solar Cycle 23, how can we miss you if you won't go away? Barely three months after forecasters announced the beginning of new Solar Cycle 24, old Solar Cycle 23 has returned. Actually, it never left. Read on.

"This week, three big sunspots appeared and they are all old cycle spots," says NASA solar physicist David Hathaway. "We know this because of their magnetic polarity."

Earlier today, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) made a magnetic map of the sun.

It shows the north and south magnetic poles of the three sunspots. All are oriented according to the patterns of Solar Cycle 23. Cycle 24 spots would be reversed.

What's going on? Hathaway explains: "We have two solar cycles in progress at the same time. Solar Cycle 24 has begun (the first new-cycle spot appeared in January 2008), but Solar Cycle 23 has not ended."

Strange as it sounds, this is perfectly normal. Around the time of solar minimum--i.e., now--old-cycle spots and new-cycle spots frequently intermingle. Eventually Cycle 23 will fade to zero, giving way in full to Solar Cycle 24, but not yet.

Meanwhile, on March 25th, sunspot 989, the smallest of the three sunspots, unleashed an M2-class solar flare. Flares are measured on a "Richter scale" ranging from A-class (puny) to X-class (powerful). M-class flares are of medium intensity. This one hurled a coronal mass ejection or "CME" into space, but the billion-ton cloud missed Earth.

While the CME was still plowing through the sun's atmosphere, amateur radio astronomer Thomas Ashcraft heard "a heaving sound" coming from the loudspeaker of his 21 MHz shortwave receiver in New Mexico: listen. It was a Type II solar radio burst generated by shock waves at the leading edge of the CME. A thousand miles away in Virginia, David Thomas recorded the same emissions on a chart recorder he connected to his 20 MHz ham rig. "What a pleasant surprise," says Thomas.

We could get more of this kind of activity in the next 7 to 10 days. It will take about that long for the sunspots to cross the face of the sun. The sun's rotation is turning the spots toward Earth, which means the next CME, if there is one, might not miss. CME strikes do no physical harm to Earth but they can cause Northern Lights, satellite glitches and, in extreme cases, power outages.

The real significance of these spots is what they say about the solar cycle, says Hathaway. "Solar Cycle 24 has begun, but we won't be through solar minimum until the number of Cycle 24 spots rises above the declining number of Cycle 23 spots." Based on this latest spate of "old" activity, he thinks the next Solar Max probably won't arrive until 2012.

Source: by Dr. Tony Phillips, [email protected]

[link to physorg.com]
"As nightfall does not come at once, neither does oppression. In both instances there is a twilight where everything remains seemingly unchanged. And it is in such twilight that we all must be aware of change in the air--however slight--lest we become unwitting victims of the darkness."
--Justice William O. Douglas

"There are three kinds of intelligence: one kind understands things for itself, the other appreciates what others can understand, the third understands neither for itself nor through others. This first is excellent, the second good, and the third useless."
--Niccolò Machiavelli

"I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep"
--Robert Frost

:phamask:
dalak

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03/29/2008 02:20 PM
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Re: Old Solar Cycle Returns
i think the next one will hit us and make the lights go out, that's how the script looks anyway.
the "emperors" have no clothes!
Niccolò  (OP)

User ID: 348129
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03/29/2008 02:22 PM
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Re: Old Solar Cycle Returns
i think the next one will hit us and make the lights go out, that's how the script looks anyway.
 Quoting: dalak

Things do seem to be moving rather quickly along that scheduled path now.
"As nightfall does not come at once, neither does oppression. In both instances there is a twilight where everything remains seemingly unchanged. And it is in such twilight that we all must be aware of change in the air--however slight--lest we become unwitting victims of the darkness."
--Justice William O. Douglas

"There are three kinds of intelligence: one kind understands things for itself, the other appreciates what others can understand, the third understands neither for itself nor through others. This first is excellent, the second good, and the third useless."
--Niccolò Machiavelli

"I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep"
--Robert Frost

:phamask:
Bloggermouth

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03/29/2008 02:39 PM
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Re: Old Solar Cycle Returns
Based on this latest spate of "old" activity, he thinks the next Solar Max probably won't arrive until 2012.
 Quoting: Niccolò

gasp
A stupid man's report of what a clever man says can never be accurate, because he unconsciously translates what he hears into something he can understand.
- Bertrand Russell
* * * * * * * * *
I think differing philosophical points of view as branches of a tree, each competing for its share of the light. It is the leaves at the top of the tree whose ego says, "it is us that provide for the life of this tree." They have forgotten the roots and the branches who now sit in the shade. - Bloggermouth
Anonymous Coward
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03/29/2008 02:43 PM
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Re: Old Solar Cycle Returns
As Solar Sun aligns with the galatical center in 2012, the electro magnetic gravitational forces balances out only after massive Solar flaring of huge Mass Energy ejection leading to creation of tiny planet between Sun and Mercury.
Anonymous Coward
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03/29/2008 02:44 PM
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Re: Old Solar Cycle Returns
As Solar Sun aligns with the galatical center in 2012, the electro magnetic gravitational forces balances out only after massive Solar flaring of huge Mass Energy ejection leading to creation of tiny planet between Sun and Mercury.
 Quoting: The Antichrist 666

Baby Earth!!!
Niccolò  (OP)

User ID: 348129
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03/29/2008 02:54 PM
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Re: Old Solar Cycle Returns
As Solar Sun aligns with the galatical center in 2012, the electro magnetic gravitational forces balances out only after massive Solar flaring of huge Mass Energy ejection leading to creation of tiny planet between Sun and Mercury.

Baby Earth!!!
 Quoting: The Antichrist 666

Hmmmm...
"As nightfall does not come at once, neither does oppression. In both instances there is a twilight where everything remains seemingly unchanged. And it is in such twilight that we all must be aware of change in the air--however slight--lest we become unwitting victims of the darkness."
--Justice William O. Douglas

"There are three kinds of intelligence: one kind understands things for itself, the other appreciates what others can understand, the third understands neither for itself nor through others. This first is excellent, the second good, and the third useless."
--Niccolò Machiavelli

"I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep"
--Robert Frost

:phamask:
Niccolò  (OP)

User ID: 348129
United States
03/29/2008 02:55 PM
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Re: Old Solar Cycle Returns
Based on this latest spate of "old" activity, he thinks the next Solar Max probably won't arrive until 2012.

gasp
 Quoting: Bloggermouth

lol
My thoughts exactly!
"As nightfall does not come at once, neither does oppression. In both instances there is a twilight where everything remains seemingly unchanged. And it is in such twilight that we all must be aware of change in the air--however slight--lest we become unwitting victims of the darkness."
--Justice William O. Douglas

"There are three kinds of intelligence: one kind understands things for itself, the other appreciates what others can understand, the third understands neither for itself nor through others. This first is excellent, the second good, and the third useless."
--Niccolò Machiavelli

"I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep"
--Robert Frost

:phamask:
Niccolò  (OP)

User ID: 348129
United States
03/29/2008 02:56 PM
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Re: Old Solar Cycle Returns
As Solar Sun aligns with the galatical center in 2012, the electro magnetic gravitational forces balances out only after massive Solar flaring of huge Mass Energy ejection leading to creation of tiny planet between Sun and Mercury.
 Quoting: The Antichrist 666

Any thoughts on initial composition?
"As nightfall does not come at once, neither does oppression. In both instances there is a twilight where everything remains seemingly unchanged. And it is in such twilight that we all must be aware of change in the air--however slight--lest we become unwitting victims of the darkness."
--Justice William O. Douglas

"There are three kinds of intelligence: one kind understands things for itself, the other appreciates what others can understand, the third understands neither for itself nor through others. This first is excellent, the second good, and the third useless."
--Niccolò Machiavelli

"I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep"
--Robert Frost

:phamask:
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 393245
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03/29/2008 02:56 PM
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Re: Old Solar Cycle Returns
As Solar Sun aligns with the galatical center in 2012, the electro magnetic gravitational forces balances out only after massive Solar flaring of huge Mass Energy ejection leading to creation of tiny planet between Sun and Mercury.
 Quoting: The Antichrist 666


There is no alignment.
Amaruca

User ID: 369984
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03/29/2008 02:56 PM
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Re: Old Solar Cycle Returns
you mean it won't peak until 2012
"God" said, let us make man in our image.. IMPLYING genetic hybridization
"I awoke only to find, that the rest of the world was still asleep"
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 275504
United States
03/29/2008 02:57 PM
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Re: Old Solar Cycle Returns
i think the next one will hit us and make the lights go out, that's how the script looks anyway.
 Quoting: dalak


worse things can happen
we lived without electricity, phone, etc. for weeks after "the storm"
people in my area lived for months before all services returned in the rural areas

it's quiet, you play a lot of cards
make sure you have a full deck!
Niccolò  (OP)

User ID: 348129
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03/29/2008 02:57 PM
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Re: Old Solar Cycle Returns
As Solar Sun aligns with the galatical center in 2012, the electro magnetic gravitational forces balances out only after massive Solar flaring of huge Mass Energy ejection leading to creation of tiny planet between Sun and Mercury.


There is no alignment.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 393245

So you think the Mayans, who were so accurate with astronomy up to this point, got it wrong about that one detail?
"As nightfall does not come at once, neither does oppression. In both instances there is a twilight where everything remains seemingly unchanged. And it is in such twilight that we all must be aware of change in the air--however slight--lest we become unwitting victims of the darkness."
--Justice William O. Douglas

"There are three kinds of intelligence: one kind understands things for itself, the other appreciates what others can understand, the third understands neither for itself nor through others. This first is excellent, the second good, and the third useless."
--Niccolò Machiavelli

"I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep"
--Robert Frost

:phamask:
Niccolò  (OP)

User ID: 348129
United States
03/29/2008 02:58 PM
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Re: Old Solar Cycle Returns
you mean it won't peak until 2012
 Quoting: Amaruca

Probably, but the NASA guy said "arrive", speaking of Solar Max.

"The real significance of these spots is what they say about the solar cycle, says Hathaway. "Solar Cycle 24 has begun, but we won't be through solar minimum until the number of Cycle 24 spots rises above the declining number of Cycle 23 spots." Based on this latest spate of "old" activity, he thinks the next Solar Max probably won't arrive until 2012."
"As nightfall does not come at once, neither does oppression. In both instances there is a twilight where everything remains seemingly unchanged. And it is in such twilight that we all must be aware of change in the air--however slight--lest we become unwitting victims of the darkness."
--Justice William O. Douglas

"There are three kinds of intelligence: one kind understands things for itself, the other appreciates what others can understand, the third understands neither for itself nor through others. This first is excellent, the second good, and the third useless."
--Niccolò Machiavelli

"I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep"
--Robert Frost

:phamask:
Amaruca

User ID: 369984
United States
03/29/2008 03:08 PM
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Re: Old Solar Cycle Returns
here is the NOAA prediction - [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
"God" said, let us make man in our image.. IMPLYING genetic hybridization
"I awoke only to find, that the rest of the world was still asleep"
Niccolò  (OP)

User ID: 348129
United States
03/29/2008 03:16 PM
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Re: Old Solar Cycle Returns
here is the NOAA prediction - [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Amaruca

Thanks!
Looks about right.
"As nightfall does not come at once, neither does oppression. In both instances there is a twilight where everything remains seemingly unchanged. And it is in such twilight that we all must be aware of change in the air--however slight--lest we become unwitting victims of the darkness."
--Justice William O. Douglas

"There are three kinds of intelligence: one kind understands things for itself, the other appreciates what others can understand, the third understands neither for itself nor through others. This first is excellent, the second good, and the third useless."
--Niccolò Machiavelli

"I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep"
--Robert Frost

:phamask:





GLP