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Market is Carshing Tards

 
Tonight We Ride!

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10/03/2023 11:26 AM

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Market is Carshing Tards
Bonds are in the first few innings of the biggest debt meltdown in history.

Stocks are on the brink of collapse and down more than one percent right now.

Down 1.5% (11:50 Eastern)

Down 1.6% (2:10 Eastern)

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

Last Edited by Tonight We Ride! on 10/03/2023 02:15 PM
Debug

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10/03/2023 11:31 AM
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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
So if you had $50k in a non-qualified account, would you go cash on it?
Goneviral

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10/03/2023 11:33 AM

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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
I did find a 90 day cd that pays 6 percent...

Hmm
....
Matthew 28:19-20
King James Version
19 Go ye therefore, and teach all nations, baptizing them in the name of the Father, and of the Son, and of the Holy Ghost:

20 Teaching them to observe all things whatsoever I have commanded you: and, lo, I am with you always, even unto the end of the world. Amen
Goneviral

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10/03/2023 11:34 AM

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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
Wall Street sell-off gains steam, with the Dow losing 400 points on interest rate threat: Live updates

[link to www.cnbc.com (secure)]

Last Edited by Goneviral on 10/03/2023 11:35 AM
Matthew 28:19-20
King James Version
19 Go ye therefore, and teach all nations, baptizing them in the name of the Father, and of the Son, and of the Holy Ghost:

20 Teaching them to observe all things whatsoever I have commanded you: and, lo, I am with you always, even unto the end of the world. Amen
Tonight We Ride!  (OP)

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10/03/2023 11:40 AM

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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
So if you had $50k in a non-qualified account, would you go cash on it?
 Quoting: Debug


I've been cash for over two years now. Been waiting for the second shoe to drop, which appears imminent now.

#notinvestmentadvice
Tonight We Ride!  (OP)

User ID: 77541527
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10/03/2023 11:47 AM

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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
I did find a 90 day cd that pays 6 percent...

Hmm
....
 Quoting: Goneviral


Ok, think of it this way. You can get a low risk short-term cd for approximately six percent (didn't check current rates so I'll take your word on that).

The earnings yield on stock market is earnings / price of the market. That is around 4.0% today. The dividend is 1.6%. So the total "return" on that is 5.6%.

Therefore, the very low risk CD is paying better than a very risky stock market. In finance theory that is not supposed to ever happen because low risk should always pay less than higher risk. Therefore the CD investment "dominates" the stock investment under CAPM theory -- which is assumed to be impossible.

Please note that the CD has risk in that the bank could choose to simply not pay it. In the past i would have said this is a nearly zero risk. I'm not so sure now because of the massive instability going on in the banks. A better choice is government t-bills.

I'm a MBA and a CFA and worked for 30 years in Corp. Finance for a very famous company.

#notinvestmentadvice

Last Edited by Tonight We Ride! on 10/03/2023 11:48 AM
The Don Of Nantucket

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10/03/2023 11:52 AM

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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
So if you had $50k in a non-qualified account, would you go cash on it?
 Quoting: Debug


I've been cash for over two years now. Been waiting for the second shoe to drop, which appears imminent now.

#notinvestmentadvice
 Quoting: Tonight We Ride!


winkwhat


Well played...


mash-cheers5
PLATA BITCHEZZZZZZ



The Rolling Stones said it best...

"What's confusing you is the nature of my game"
Anonymous Coward
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10/03/2023 11:53 AM
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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
400 points is nothing when the DOW is 33,000

It would need to drop several thousand points in a single day, before it would be cause for worry.
Anonymous Coward
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10/03/2023 11:53 AM
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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
Paper Metal sell-off was a huge clue market was/is about to dump, oil and dollar skyrocketing for absolutely no reason but to confuse the naive and gullible, not one principle of Ludwig Von Mises Theory of Money and Credit is any longer valid, everything Financially is manipulated, everything.
Anonymous Coward
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10/03/2023 11:53 AM
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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
Went in cash when they started QT...been waiting for this .. Hopefully they overshoot with deflation so houses are affordable. Hopefully they don't bail out highly leveraged idiots who took on home equity loans and other debt they should not have. Rampant market speculation needs to be reigned in along with government spending.
Anonymous Coward
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10/03/2023 11:54 AM
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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
This will trigger the wildest ride ever: Thread: Oh Oh....Blinken to Visit Israel, Palestinian Auth, Morocco, and Saudi Arabia in 3 Weeks
Anonymous Coward
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10/03/2023 11:56 AM
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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
With rates where they are at bonds are where its at. As interest rates drop again pricing on high yield bonds will increase as people get out of the market.
Tonight We Ride!  (OP)

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10/03/2023 11:59 AM

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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
With rates where they are at bonds are where its at. As interest rates drop again pricing on high yield bonds will increase as people get out of the market.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 86063502


That's correct assuming that people take their money out of stocks, invest across the yield curve and assume inflation will decrease or default risk isn't going to increase.

That's a lot of assumptions.
Anonymous Coward
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10/03/2023 12:00 PM
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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
With rates where they are at bonds are where its at. As interest rates drop again pricing on high yield bonds will increase as people get out of the market.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 86063502


That's correct assuming that people take their money out of stocks, invest across the yield curve and assume inflation will decrease or default risk isn't going to increase.

That's a lot of assumptions.
 Quoting: Tonight We Ride!


I don't think they're going to allow a sovereign debt crisis and allow our government to default I simply think they're going to do more quantitative easing and keep the house of cards going as long as they can.
Anonymous Coward
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10/03/2023 12:02 PM
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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
Debt is money and money is debt. Because the interest money to pay off the interest on the debt doesn't ever exist you always have to constantly keep creating more and more money just to service the interest payments. There is no paying off the national debt. This is something people don't understand about fractional Reserve debt-based currency.

Pretend the national debt doesn't exist because for all intents and purposes it doesn't. It is monetized. It will never be paid off. Take advantage of any deflation we see from them tightening and buy assets while you can.
Anonymous Coward
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10/03/2023 12:05 PM
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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
Bullshit it is at 33,059 manipulation at its finest
The Don Of Nantucket

User ID: 86195405
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10/03/2023 12:06 PM

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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
Debt is money and money is debt. Because the interest money to pay off the interest on the debt doesn't ever exist you always have to constantly keep creating more and more money just to service the interest payments. There is no paying off the national debt. This is something people don't understand about fractional Reserve debt-based currency.

Pretend the national debt doesn't exist because for all intents and purposes it doesn't. It is monetized. It will never be paid off. Take advantage of any deflation we see from them tightening and buy assets while you can.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 86063502


this!

Especially considering the supply chain issues that are already happening.
PLATA BITCHEZZZZZZ



The Rolling Stones said it best...

"What's confusing you is the nature of my game"
The Don Of Nantucket

User ID: 86195405
United States
10/03/2023 12:08 PM

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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
Bullshit it is at 33,059 manipulation at its finest
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 79849628


But hey what's in a number?

Market Pukes After Biden's Dept Of Labor Shocks With 5-Sigma Beat In Job Openings Which Soar The Most Since July 2021

"Just when the Fed thought that the White House had instructed Biden's Department of Labor to go easy on the fabricated data, and after several months of declining job openings and easing payrolls in line with an economy that is gradually slowing if not outright falling into a recession, moments ago the BLS absolutely shocked and stunned markets, strategists and economists when the DOL decided to come up with the biggest data fabrication in years, and reported that in August job openings exploded from 8.827MM to a mindblowing 9.61 million."



[link to www.zerohedge.com (secure)]
PLATA BITCHEZZZZZZ



The Rolling Stones said it best...

"What's confusing you is the nature of my game"
Tonight We Ride!  (OP)

User ID: 77541527
United States
10/03/2023 12:11 PM

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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
With rates where they are at bonds are where its at. As interest rates drop again pricing on high yield bonds will increase as people get out of the market.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 86063502


That's correct assuming that people take their money out of stocks, invest across the yield curve and assume inflation will decrease or default risk isn't going to increase.

That's a lot of assumptions.
 Quoting: Tonight We Ride!


I don't think they're going to allow a sovereign debt crisis and allow our government to default I simply think they're going to do more quantitative easing and keep the house of cards going as long as they can.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 86063502


That's been the pattern to date for sure. The problem is that they've made it clear at some point they want a "reset". Similar to 1929, they may choose to pursue policies that they know will exasperate the crisis. I've studied the 30s depression closely and, without a doubt, the depression was fomented by design. Probably to bring about WW2 and to devastate the growing middle class.

Don't think that can't / won't happen again.

Last Edited by Tonight We Ride! on 10/03/2023 12:12 PM
Anonymous Coward
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10/03/2023 12:12 PM
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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
With rates where they are at bonds are where its at. As interest rates drop again pricing on high yield bonds will increase as people get out of the market.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 86063502


That's correct assuming that people take their money out of stocks, invest across the yield curve and assume inflation will decrease or default risk isn't going to increase.

That's a lot of assumptions.
 Quoting: Tonight We Ride!


I don't think they're going to allow a sovereign debt crisis and allow our government to default I simply think they're going to do more quantitative easing and keep the house of cards going as long as they can.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 86063502


That's been the pattern to date for sure. The problem is that they've made it clear at some point they want a "reset". Similar to 1929, they may choose to pursue policies that they know will exasperate the crisis. I've studied the 30s depression closely and, without a doubt, the depression was fomented by design. Probably to bring about WW2 and to devastate the growing middle class.

Don't think that can't / won't happen again.
 Quoting: Tonight We Ride!


A third world war would certainly solve their problems. Global Wars of that nature allow them to bring on debt resets.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 80515079
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10/03/2023 12:33 PM
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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
I did find a 90 day cd that pays 6 percent...

Hmm
....
 Quoting: Goneviral


Ok, think of it this way. You can get a low risk short-term cd for approximately six percent (didn't check current rates so I'll take your word on that).

The earnings yield on stock market is earnings / price of the market. That is around 4.0% today. The dividend is 1.6%. So the total "return" on that is 5.6%.

Therefore, the very low risk CD is paying better than a very risky stock market. In finance theory that is not supposed to ever happen because low risk should always pay less than higher risk. Therefore the CD investment "dominates" the stock investment under CAPM theory -- which is assumed to be impossible.

Please note that the CD has risk in that the bank could choose to simply not pay it. In the past i would have said this is a nearly zero risk. I'm not so sure now because of the massive instability going on in the banks. A better choice is government t-bills.

I'm a MBA and a CFA and worked for 30 years in Corp. Finance for a very famous company.

#notinvestmentadvice
 Quoting: Tonight We Ride!


If I did have money to invest right now, you'd be my broker
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 80515079
United States
10/03/2023 12:34 PM
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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
Debt is money and money is debt. Because the interest money to pay off the interest on the debt doesn't ever exist you always have to constantly keep creating more and more money just to service the interest payments. There is no paying off the national debt. This is something people don't understand about fractional Reserve debt-based currency.

Pretend the national debt doesn't exist because for all intents and purposes it doesn't. It is monetized. It will never be paid off. Take advantage of any deflation we see from them tightening and buy assets while you can.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 86063502


:this!:

Especially considering the supply chain issues that are already happening.
 Quoting: The Don Of Nantucket


:this!: :this!:
Anonymous Coward
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10/03/2023 12:59 PM
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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
Absolutely. I resigned public teaching (Europe) this year after 15 years. Total frustration. No economics taught, and I tried to integrate basic monetary theory at least into early high school level courses. It's like swimming upstream, the whole system is rigged to make you think it has value.

And there's no money in teaching. Been buying PMs for decades. Basically retiring now before 50 as the system collapses. Sad really, but they gamed the system that way, so be it.

No value in real education, no value in hard assets. Everything is fake, virtual, "do what I say because I say".

We'll see how that works out
Anonymous Coward
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10/03/2023 01:39 PM
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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
bump
HarMegiddo

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10/03/2023 01:47 PM

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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
Adding a zero might have me concerned.
Even then, the house covers its bets, or shuts down the slots.
HarMegiddo
Goneviral

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10/03/2023 02:43 PM

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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
Just paid 6 buck a gallon...but some stations charge up tp7..

This economy is driving people to new limits!
Matthew 28:19-20
King James Version
19 Go ye therefore, and teach all nations, baptizing them in the name of the Father, and of the Son, and of the Holy Ghost:

20 Teaching them to observe all things whatsoever I have commanded you: and, lo, I am with you always, even unto the end of the world. Amen
Tonight We Ride!  (OP)

User ID: 77541527
United States
10/03/2023 02:46 PM

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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
Thanks for the pine

Now go home and get your f'in pine box!

dr0id

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10/03/2023 02:53 PM

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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
Paper Metal sell-off was a huge clue market was/is about to dump, oil and dollar skyrocketing for absolutely no reason but to confuse the naive and gullible, not one principle of Ludwig Von Mises Theory of Money and Credit is any longer valid, everything Financially is manipulated, everything.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 86233574


https://imgur.com/a/2CicasT

[link to imgur.com (secure)]

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom
brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only
whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of
voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later
as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system
involved."
~Ludwig von Mises, 1929
Chapter XX: Interest, Credit Expansion, The Trade Cycle, § 8
: The Monetary or Circulation Theory of the Trade Cycle





[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

Last Edited by dr0id on 10/03/2023 03:02 PM
Articles posted do not necessarily reflect endorsement.
Anonymous Coward
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10/03/2023 03:02 PM
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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
Paper Metal sell-off was a huge clue market was/is about to dump, oil and dollar skyrocketing for absolutely no reason but to confuse the naive and gullible, not one principle of Ludwig Von Mises Theory of Money and Credit is any longer valid, everything Financially is manipulated, everything.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 86233574


John exters deflationary pyramid. Money seek safety in an unsafe environment. Money's headed to the dollar then it'll head to gold.
Building Momentum

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10/03/2023 03:03 PM

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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
So if you had $50k in a non-qualified account, would you go cash on it?
 Quoting: Debug


You mean did I.. yes
Helping Humanity is always the Tyrants Alibi
pool
I will find you in the bluer

User ID: 86029422
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10/03/2023 03:04 PM

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Re: Market is Carshing Tards
I'm shopping for Covid-24 supplies.
Don't pollute yourself with 'diet'.





GLP