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The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links

 
Stumpknocker

User ID: 84902804
United States
11/20/2023 08:55 AM

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The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
The sales side (or variable operations) in the Retail Automotive sector is car-shing. Service (fixed ops) isn't fairing much better. I'm very glad I sold my store a few yrs ago.

I consult for several OEMs, and they are beginning to panic. At several, ROS, or Return on Sales (a closely watched metric) is down by 70% (+,-), over the last 45 days. They thought it was a blip at first, when ROS was down 25% and it just kept going. I will not name specific OEMs and risk violating my NDA.

Return on Sales is a primary indicator of a company's health. Some OEMs are now cutting production which is still no where near pre-Covid levels.

We are about to see massive incentives (rebates) at many OEMs. Once these start, used car values will plummet even further (because new become much less costly) Days to turn on used cars is skyrocketing (drawdown of 18.2% in October which was the largest drawdown ever see Zerohedge article). This will put some dealers out of business as they will find themselves millions of dollars in the hole on their used car inventory. Only the ones with large reinsurance reserves or with significant cash on hand will survive.

One of my points is; if you are in the market for a car, truck, CUV, SUV wait until about February. Prices will be 25% (or more) lower than they are now. Notice all the dealerships near you are jam packed with inventory again.

I was at a conference last week where JD P..... showed some data on a huge crash in EVs. The message was all the customers willing to own one bought one. No onw else wants one. BTW, the mileage range on all of them is grossly overstated.

I can't post links or support this via other websites. It MAY be an opportunity to short some of them. I can't, of course.

Sorry this is wordy, but it is just another indicator that we are again on the cliff of a major economic calamity. Act accordingly...

UPDATED:

Used Car Prices:

[link to www.cargurus.com (secure)]

And a shoutout to Liz...(EV's crashed 32.4% YOY)

[link to www.recurrentauto.com (secure)]

and Forbes weighing in with specific data:

[link to www.forbes.com (secure)]

This data is now stale and I will tell you it has gotten much worse! EV production is stopping at many OEMS.

DO SOME RESEARCH YOURSELF

Last Edited by Stumpknocker on 11/20/2023 09:44 AM
"I have never understood why it is greed to want to keep the money you've earned, but not greed to want to take somebody else's money"-- Thomas Sowell

The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing!
Novax Djokesonvaxed

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11/20/2023 09:02 AM

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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
Thank you, OP!
Great info.
We will be in the market for a new or slightly used car - not EV - soon and can really use your info.
Anonymous Coward
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Argentina
11/20/2023 09:02 AM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
A crashing automotive sector is one of the big factors that finally kicked the 2008 recession off. Automotive impacts countless other industries if it's not performing well.
Anonymous Coward
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United States
11/20/2023 09:05 AM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
evs are sitting on the lot, rotting.
Anonymous Coward
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11/20/2023 09:05 AM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
Project Ginger or Project I.T.?

No, it is, The Thing and that's Michael Jackson's IT.
Anonymous Coward
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United States
11/20/2023 09:07 AM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
And yet they want to build battery pants all over US. WTAF.
Anonymous Coward
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11/20/2023 09:14 AM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
HOGWASH
Anonymous Coward
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Argentina
11/20/2023 09:15 AM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
HOGWASH
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 84793421


DENIAL
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 86537620
United States
11/20/2023 09:17 AM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
HOGWASH
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 84793421


How so?

It’s a short term forecast anyway, we shall see sooooon…..
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 84044884
United States
11/20/2023 09:22 AM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
HOGWASH
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 84793421


Says the autodealer reptilian salesperson. The only phylum of reptilian asswipes worse are realtors
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77001677
Canada
11/20/2023 09:27 AM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
"NdA" on internet forums my a$$.

:bs:
Stumpknocker  (OP)

User ID: 84902804
United States
11/20/2023 09:28 AM

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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
The sales side (or variable operations) in the Retail Automotive sector is car-shing. Service (fixed ops) isn't fairing much better. I'm very glad I sold my store a few yrs ago.

I consult for several OEMs, and they are beginning to panic. At several, ROS, or Return on Sales (a closely watched metric) is down by 70% (+,-), over the last 45 days. They thought it was a blip at first, when ROS was down 25% and it just kept going. I will not name specific OEMs and risk violating my NDA.

Return on Sales is a primary indicator of a company's health. Some OEMs are now cutting production which is still no where near pre-Covid levels.

We are about to see massive incentives (rebates) at many OEMs. Once these start, used car values will plummet even further (because new become much less costly) Days to turn on used cars is skyrocketing (drawdown of 18.2% in October which was the largest drawdown ever see Zerohedge article). This will put some dealers out of business as they will find themselves millions of dollars in the hole on their used car inventory. Only the ones with large reinsurance reserves or with significant cash on hand will survive.

One of my points is; if you are in the market for a car, truck, CUV, SUV wait until about February. Prices will be 25% (or more) lower than they are now. Notice all the dealerships near you are jam packed with inventory again.

I was at a conference last week where JD P..... showed some data on a huge crash in EVs. The message was all the customers willing to own one bought one. No onw else wants one. BTW, the mileage range on all of them is grossly overstated.

I can't post links or support this via other websites. It MAY be an opportunity to short some of them. I can't, of course.

Sorry this is wordy, but it is just another indicator that we are again on the cliff of a major economic calamity. Act accordingly...
 Quoting: Stumpknocker


Uncle Intel pinned by the uncle himself.

Not Uncle Intel, first hand intel and I did not PIN this. I have never, in 14 years on here pinned my own thread. If it's not important to you, move on to something that is. Pretty simple. Please don't waste everyone else's time with BULLSHIT YOU KNOW NOTHING ABOUT.

Thank you to the person who did.

jerkit
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 81859728

"I have never understood why it is greed to want to keep the money you've earned, but not greed to want to take somebody else's money"-- Thomas Sowell

The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing!
VegasRick

User ID: 86531664
United States
11/20/2023 09:33 AM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
I've been waiting for this.

Leather seats and sunroof here I come.

scheming
God Fearing Atheist

User ID: 71860689
United States
11/20/2023 09:34 AM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
The sales side (or variable operations) in the Retail Automotive sector is car-shing. Service (fixed ops) isn't fairing much better. I'm very glad I sold my store a few yrs ago.

I consult for several OEMs, and they are beginning to panic. At several, ROS, or Return on Sales (a closely watched metric) is down by 70% (+,-), over the last 45 days. They thought it was a blip at first, when ROS was down 25% and it just kept going. I will not name specific OEMs and risk violating my NDA.

Return on Sales is a primary indicator of a company's health. Some OEMs are now cutting production which is still no where near pre-Covid levels.

We are about to see massive incentives (rebates) at many OEMs. Once these start, used car values will plummet even further (because new become much less costly) Days to turn on used cars is skyrocketing (drawdown of 18.2% in October which was the largest drawdown ever see Zerohedge article). This will put some dealers out of business as they will find themselves millions of dollars in the hole on their used car inventory. Only the ones with large reinsurance reserves or with significant cash on hand will survive.

One of my points is; if you are in the market for a car, truck, CUV, SUV wait until about February. Prices will be 25% (or more) lower than they are now. Notice all the dealerships near you are jam packed with inventory again.

I was at a conference last week where JD P..... showed some data on a huge crash in EVs. The message was all the customers willing to own one bought one. No onw else wants one. BTW, the mileage range on all of them is grossly overstated.

I can't post links or support this via other websites. It MAY be an opportunity to short some of them. I can't, of course.

Sorry this is wordy, but it is just another indicator that we are again on the cliff of a major economic calamity. Act accordingly...
 Quoting: Stumpknocker


IDK. The best deals in the market for both houses and autos is January and February.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 86311877
Canada
11/20/2023 09:37 AM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
And yet they want to build battery pants all over US. WTAF.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 86537620

pants?
wtfdid
Feathery

User ID: 86499118
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11/20/2023 09:38 AM

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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
An EV truck is strictly a rich mans toy, a third or forth vehicle for blue collar wealth that can absorb the loss via write offs and exspenses, a Rancher or well to do Farmer. Over all they are the second scam of the century, covid being the first scam.

I have no idea why anyone would go all electric when you can buy a hybrid.
Tomfoolery
Anonymous Coward
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Estonia
11/20/2023 09:39 AM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
PPI just dropped the most since COVID when everything shut down so let that sink in. A leading indicator of the economy is fuel consumption which has also dropped 24% yoy so let that sink in. The corrupt media can say whatever they want about the fake economy being great but the fact is the organic American economy is fucked.

We're going into a recession and you can thank the Bidenomic lies for that.
Anonymous Coward
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United States
11/20/2023 09:40 AM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
yeahsure woowhoo! I'll be able to get an overpriced POS truck for 75k instead of 100K!

rockon
Anonymous Coward
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Sweden
11/20/2023 09:42 AM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
when you charge 100k for a 30k vehicle shit happens duh
Anonymous Coward
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11/20/2023 09:43 AM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
It certainly is. I’ve been waiting for this to buy a new car.
Anonymous Coward
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United States
11/20/2023 09:46 AM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
we already know the official response to an
automotive crash...

Cash For Clunkers!

FedGov will hand out money like candy and retire
all vehicles over 15 years old.

.
Akalmondjoy

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11/20/2023 09:46 AM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
A crashing automotive sector is one of the big factors that finally kicked the 2008 recession off. Automotive impacts countless other industries if it's not performing well.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 85595748


In 2007, I got a 45K VW Touareg, for 38K and 0% interest on a 6yr loan (although I only financed 15K) but I got it because the lot was overflowing and they did not have the color I wanted with the features I wanted. They agreed to reduce the price to 42K, thinking I was gonna accept a not blue one and I changed my mind at the very last minute and so they said there was no blue ones anything. The next day, I found 2 in my state, one less than 20min from that dealership. I had told them I was going to have the original dealership get it from them and they offered to give it to me 40K. Told them I would be there the following day. The next morning, I got a call from original dealership and they said they had located one but it was going to be 44K, lowest possible. They said it was coming from a nearby state. So, I knew the one I had found for 40K night not be there the next weekend so I told them to get the one they found.

Then I got a conscious and called the dealership of the one I had found and told them that the original dealer had one on the way and I really did not want to do that to them since they were the ones who had spent so much time trying to help me. They then said we can let it go for 39.5K lowest possible. THEN I did a really unintentional smart thing with no forethought, I called the original dealer when the vehicle told them not to go get the one in the other state but they said "too late, it will be here in 15min". I told them I felt bad but the other dealership had offered 39.5K, a full 5.5K lower, and I sent that offer to them in writing. They were stuck and I had proof of the offer and they just wanted to get rid of me and get the car off their lot and offered it to me for 38.5K and 0% interest. Sooo, I told them if they were willing to do that my husband would be the VW he had been eyeballing and my son bought the one he had looked at if they would give both of them 0% interest and they did..but only a few grand knocked off the price of those vehicles. But still, felt like we got a great deal.

Not bad for a ditzy red-head...not great for either dealership but I got to see how it works. I played the game without knowing I was playing the game and that is why it worked to my advantage. Not sure I would do that with intent, lol! But maybe I will try in Feb cause I need a new car. thanks for the info OP.

Wonder what interest will be like now...seems that the house and car prices will fall but interest rates will make up the difference so rather than the company getting the money, the banks will?
"What can we gain by sailing to the moon if we cannot cross the abyss to ourselves" -Merton
Anonymous Coward
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11/20/2023 09:46 AM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
It certainly is. I’ve been waiting for this to buy a new car.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 83837846


Schweeeeet.....I'm in the market for a new SUV for next year .....Got cash, what's your best price?....

885
Anonymous Coward
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11/20/2023 09:46 AM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
It certainly is. I’ve been waiting for this to buy a new car.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 83837846


I'll wait a long time!
Anonymous Coward
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Canada
11/20/2023 09:48 AM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
evs are sitting on the lot, rotting.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21565132


I am literally having my coffee break Inside a major manufacturing plant in Canada. Would prefer not to give the name but we build automated robotic cells for tier one automotive companies. Not ten feet away is the cell that makes the battery tray for a very well known truck. Last week my crew and I started building this cell. Today we are taking it apart. The company we are building it for has put it on hold for a year. That usually suggests it will be canceled. EV are not working in Canada. Especially with our cold weather. Our customer used US taxpayer money to build this cell. Easily $100 grand already spent on just the bases, a couple of material handlers and some assorted parts.
EV will most certainly not be the answer.
Ok break is over and I will be continued to start tearing this cell back down. Crazy times.
Anonymous Coward
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11/20/2023 09:49 AM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
And that includes all the added features that you really do not need but get charged for as it is in the "standard package" price. Lets get real and start making diesel trucks that do not need to add processed piss to run. Watched a vid of a heavy wrecker getting a fill up and it hit him for > $500.
Anonymous Coward
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11/20/2023 09:52 AM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
"used cars will plummet even further...." Are you retarded or something?

Used vehicles right now are expensive as F. Basically so much so you might as well buy new if you can.
texasdeerslayer

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11/20/2023 09:52 AM

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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
They have techno'ed up and qualitied down new vehicles to the point that they are rolling piles of disposable plastic junk that is cheaper to replace than to repair. And they are far from cheap to replace. 50K for a Tacoma? I will just keep my old 2003 Superduty until the engine conks out. Then I will replace the engine.
Anonymous Coward
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11/20/2023 09:55 AM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
I saw what looked like a brand new GMC Pick up out in front of a dealership with big block letter on the side

$16,000.00 off. or maybe it was $26,000.00
ookie

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11/20/2023 09:55 AM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
Good. Been trying to buy a car for a year now and there's no way I am going to spend that much on used junk. They're selling garbage cars (200,000+ miles, 10+ years old) for prices that shock the mind. A new truck is only for millionaires.
Anonymous Coward
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11/20/2023 09:56 AM
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Re: The Retail Automotive MELTDOWN has begun...Updated with links
VW JETTA / NISSAN SENTRA ~$17,000 BRAND NEW IN 2021

NOW THEY WANT ~$24,000+ IN 2023

THAT'S 40% INFLATION RIGHT THERE!





GLP