Poll: Obama Holds Leads in Key States; McCain Attacks Not Swaying Voters

[link to www.time.com]

"With less than two weeks to go 'til Election Day, Barack Obama has held or increased his leads in four key states won by President George W. Bush in 2004 — Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia — while losing ground in West Virginia, according to the latest series of TIME/CNN battleground state polls conducted by Opinion Research Corp. The polls also suggest that the McCain campaign's recent attempts to link the Democratic nominee to former domestic terrorist William Ayers and the liberal organizing group ACORN (which the GOP accuses of perpetrating voter fraud) are not resonating with most voters.

Obama gained the most ground in North Carolina, where he now leads John McCain among likely voters by 51% to 47%, up four percentage points from earlier this month when a similar poll showed the two tied at 49%. In Nevada, Obama expanded his lead to 51% to 46%, up a percentage point from September. Similarly, in the crucial swing state of Ohio, Obama leads the Arizona senator by a 50% to 46% margin, an increase of one percentage point from his lead earlier this month. In Virginia, a state that increasingly looks to be solidly in Obama's corner, the Illinois senator remains 10 percentage points ahead 54% to 44%. Still, Obama's ability to make inroads into red states does appear to have some limits; he lost ground in West Virginia — a state his campaign has said they are just starting to contest — and now trails there by 41% to McCain's 53%, more than doubling McCain's September lead of 49% to Obama's 44%.

McCain's failure to move the needle in these four states likely reflects, in part, the fact that his latest attacks on Obama are not having much impact. Although a majority of voters in Virginia, Ohio and North Carolina had heard of Ayers and ACORN, less than a third of voters said such issues would affect their votes.

The race in Ohio, North Carolina and Nevada — while showing Obama trending up — remains inside or very close to the margins of error for those states. In Virginia, Obama's lead is far outside the margin of error, and McCain's lead in West Virginia is also solid. The polls of Nevada and Ohio have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, while those done of North Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia have margins of error of plus or minus 4 points.

The polls were conducted over the phone from Oct. 19-21. In Nevada 911 registered voters and 700 likely voters were polled. In North Carolina 940 registered voters and 644 likely voters were surveyed. Pollsters in Ohio spoke to 938 registered voters and 737 likely voters. In Virginia 927 registered voters and 647 likely voters were polled. And in West Virginia 893 registered and 674 likely voters were polled. "