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Republicans panicking over disastrous McCain campaign

 
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Republicans panicking over disastrous McCain campaign
Sorry, Senator. Let's Salvage What We Can.

By David Frum
Sunday, October 26, 2008; B01

There are many ways to lose a presidential election. John McCain is losing in a way that threatens to take the entire Republican Party down with him.

A year ago, the Arizona senator's team made a crucial strategic decision. McCain would run on his (impressive) personal biography. On policy, he'd hew mostly to conservative orthodoxy, with a few deviations -- most notably, his support for legalization for illegal immigrants. But this strategy wasn't yielding results in the general election. So in August, McCain tried a bold new gambit: He would reach out to independents and women with an exciting and unexpected vice presidential choice.

That didn't work out so well either. Gov. Sarah Palin connected with neither independents nor women. She did, however, ignite the Republican base, which has come to support her passionately. And so, in this last month, the McCain campaign has

Palinized itself to make the most of its last asset. To fire up the Republican base, the McCain team has hit at Barack Obama as an alien, a radical and a socialist.

Sure enough, the base has responded. After months and months of wan enthusiasm among Republicans, these last weeks have at last energized the core of the party. But there's a downside: The very same campaign strategy that has belatedly mobilized the Republican core has alienated and offended the great national middle, which was the only place where the 2008 election could have been won.

I could pile up the poll numbers here, but frankly . . . it's too depressing. You have to go back to the Watergate era to see numbers quite so horrible for the GOP.

McCain's awful campaign is having awful consequences down the ballot. I spoke a little while ago to a senior Republican House member. "There is not a safe Republican seat in the country," he warned. "I don't mean that we're going to lose all of them. But we could lose any of them."

In the Senate, things look, if possible, even worse.

The themes and messages that are galvanizing the crowds for Palin are bleeding Sens. John Sununu in New Hampshire, Gordon Smith in Oregon, Norm Coleman in Minnesota and Susan Collins in Maine. The Palin approach might have been expected to work better in more traditionally conservative states such as Virginia, North Carolina and Georgia, but they have not worked well enough to compensate for the weak Republican economic message at a moment of global financial crisis. Result: the certain loss of John Warner's Senate seat in Virginia, the probable loss of Elizabeth Dole's in North Carolina, an unexpectedly tough fight for Saxby Chambliss's in Georgia -- and an apparent GOP surrender in Colorado, where it looks as if the National Republican Senatorial Committee has already pulled its ads from the air.

The fundraising challenge only makes things worse. The Republican senatorial and congressional committees have badly underperformed compared with their Democratic counterparts -- and the Republican National Committee, which has done well, is directing its money toward the presidential campaign, rather than to local races. (It was RNC funds, not McCain '08 money, that paid the now-famous $150,000 for Palin's campaign wardrobe, for example.) This is a huge mistake.

In these last days before the vote, Republicans need to face some strategic realities. Our resources are limited, and our message is failing. We cannot fight on all fronts. We are cannibalizing races that we must win and probably can win in order to help a national campaign that is almost certainly lost. In these final 10 days, our goal should be: senators first.

A beaten party needs a base from which to recover. In 1993, our Republican base was found in the states and the cities. We had the governorships of California, Michigan and Wisconsin in 1993, and Rudy Giuliani won the New York mayor's race later that year. The reform we delivered at the state and local levels contrasted acutely with the shambles of President Clinton's first two years -- and helped us win both houses of Congress in 1994.

I very much doubt that we will be able to show that same kind of local strength in 2009. The statehouses were the engine of our renewal in the 1990s; the Senate will have to play the same role after this defeat. That's especially true because of two unique dangers posed by the impending Democratic victory.

First, with the financial meltdown, the federal government is now acquiring a huge ownership stake in the nation's financial system. It will be immensely tempting to officeholders in Washington to use that stake for political ends -- to reward friends and punish enemies. One-party government, of course, will intensify those temptations. And as the federal government succumbs, officeholders will become more and more comfortable holding that stake. The current urgency to liquidate the government's position will subside. The United States needs Republicans and conservatives to monitor the way Democrats wield this extraordinary and dangerous new power -- and to pressure them to surrender it as rapidly as feasible.

Second, the political culture of the Democratic Party has changed over the past decade. There's a fierce new anger among many liberal Democrats, a more militant style and an angry intolerance of dissent and criticism. This is the culture of the left-wing blogosphere and MSNBC's evening line-up -- and soon, it will be the culture of important political institutions in Washington.

Unchecked, this angry new wing of the Democratic Party will seek to stifle opposition by changing the rules of the political game. Some will want to silence conservative talk radio by tightening regulation of the airwaves via the misleadingly named "fairness doctrine"; others may seek to police the activities of right-leaning think tanks by a stricter interpretation of what is tax-deductible and what is not.

The best bulwark for a nonpolitical finance system and a national culture of open debate will be the strongest possible Republican caucus in the Senate. And it is precisely that strength that is being cannibalized now by the flailing end of the McCain-Palin campaign.

What should Republicans be doing differently? Two things:

1. Every available dollar that can be shifted to a senatorial campaign must be shifted to a senatorial campaign. Right now, we are investing heavily in Pennsylvania in hopes of corralling those fabled "Hillary Democrats" for McCain. But McCain's hopes in Pennsylvania are delusive: The state went for Kerry in 2004, Gore in 2000 and Clinton in 1992 and 1996, and McCain lags Obama by a dozen points in recent polls. But even if we were somehow to take the state, that victory would not compensate for the likely loss of Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and other states tipped to the Democrats by demographic changes and the mortgage crisis. The "win Pennsylvania and win the nation" strategy may have looked plausible in August and September, when McCain trailed Obama by just a few digits. Now it looks far-fetched.

But it is not far-fetched to hope that we can hold 45 or 46 of our current 49 Senate seats. In 1993, then-Senate Minority Leader Robert J. Dole (R-Kan.) stopped Hillary-care with only 43 seats. But if we are reduced to just 40 or 41 senators, as could easily happen, Republicans and conservatives would find themselves powerless to stop anything -- and more conservative Democrats would lose bargaining power with the Obama White House.

2. We need a message change that frankly acknowledges that the Democrats are probably going to win the White House -- and that warns of the dangers of one-party, left-wing government. There's a lot of poll evidence that voters prefer divided government. By some estimates, perhaps as many as 8 percent of voters consciously cast strategic votes in favor of division. These are the voters we need to be talking to now.

I'm not suggesting that the RNC throw up its hands. But down-ballot Republicans need to give up on the happy talk about how McCain has Obama just where he wants him, take off their game faces and say something like this:

"We're almost certainly looking at a Democratic White House. I can work with a Democratic president to help this state. But we need balance in Washington.

"The government now owns a big stake in the nation's banking system. Trillions of dollars are now under direct government control. It's not wise to put that money under one-party control. It's just too tempting. You need a second set of eyes on that cash. You need oversight and accountability. Otherwise, you're going to wake up two years from now and find out that a Democratic president, a Democratic Senate and a Democratic House have been funneling a ton of that money to their friends and allies. It'll be a big scandal -- but it will be too late. The money will be gone. Divided government is the best precaution you can have."

It's the only argument we have left. And, as the old Washington saying goes, it has the additional merit of being true.

[email protected]

David Frum is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author, most recently, of "Comeback: Conservatism That Can Win Again." He served in 2001-02 as a speechwriter and special assistant to President Bush.

- [link to www.washingtonpost.com]
Say It Loud
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10/25/2008 11:29 PM
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Re: Republicans panicking over disastrous McCain campaign
John McCain is losing because he is a Democrat in Republican clothes and Republicans all know it.

He is the 'maverick' I detest that lable. Ron Paul was the true maverick.

John McCain tried to shove amnesty down the throats of conservatives and it didn't work but instead of changing his mind and his ways (which I think he is incapable of) he continued in his persuit of the Hispanic vote and then added Palin (highly unqualified) as a token woman to gain respect of Hillary voters.

BUT he has stuck his finger in the eyes of conservatives every chance he had, appearing at La Raza and at NALEO.

Conservatives reject McCain.
Many are voting third party as I am.

McCain screwed over his base to pander and it cost him.

Lesson learned for future Republicans...are you listening Lindsey Graham?
Anonymous Coward
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10/25/2008 11:34 PM
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Re: Republicans panicking over disastrous McCain campaign
I guess I'm dumb but the polls look fine to me. McCain is close enough. I think all things considered McCain will win.
:::vishuz

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10/25/2008 11:37 PM
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Re: Republicans panicking over disastrous McCain campaign
I've been saying this for almost a few years.

The GOP is destined to die off now, thanks to the neoconservative take over.

They have used psychological warfare to their extent, and have succeeded in that regard, but now they must be replaced.

This is how things go. I hope it gets more transparent for most of you folks, as it is for me.

Do you honestly expect good news @ the GOP after 8 years of failed miserable policies?

You can't even put a number on how many things the GOP fucked up.

It may be in the thousands.

And the amount of money that was lost & wasted.

THINK!
THINK!
THINK!
The blackening of roses will send you to the edges of the land/
The emerald tablets of Thoth the Atlantean/
The hands of the mighty Lion of Judah/
Will throw you through the triangular portals of Bermuda/
Exploring the Hologramic aspects of consciousness/
Anonymous Coward
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10/25/2008 11:40 PM
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Re: Republicans panicking over disastrous McCain campaign
I'm so grateful the lord made me a leader so I would never have to vote.
Anonymous Coward
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10/25/2008 11:42 PM
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Re: Republicans panicking over disastrous McCain campaign
I guess I'm dumb but the polls look fine to me. McCain is close enough. I think all things considered McCain will win.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 535075

Yes, you are dumb!
Say It Loud
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10/25/2008 11:48 PM
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Re: Republicans panicking over disastrous McCain campaign
I guess I'm dumb but the polls look fine to me. McCain is close enough. I think all things considered McCain will win.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 535075



Under normal circumstances, his numbers are about what would be expected. After the disaster of the past eight years it is time for the swing to the Democrats to screw things us for a while..

Think Caroll Quigley....

BUT Obama is such a Marxist with so much baggage that I think he would have lost if the Republicans had anyone decent to vote for...they don't

Those who are voting for him, including the PUMAS (hillary supporters who hate Obama) and those who just hate Obama, are not so much voting FOR McCain as they are voting against Obama...

but he needed the base of the conservative party.
He took us for granted..thought we would suck it up no matter what and vote for him...

Did you hear what his mother said about that?

But we aren't doing it. No matter what...every term the Republicans get more liberal..we have had enough. No more voting for the lesser of two evils.

If Obama wins...he wins.
PACNWGUY
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10/25/2008 11:50 PM
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Re: Republicans panicking over disastrous McCain campaign
Another article written by the Obama campaign about McCain.

Per Zogby, the race is 3 points now. Kerry was ahead by 8 the end of October 2004.

Obama is in absolute panic. All the billions spent and he can't close the deal.

The 11% of undecided independents are choosing McCain.

AMERICANS WILL NEVER ELECT SOMEONE LIKE OBAMA PRESIDENT.
:::vishuz

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10/25/2008 11:55 PM
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Re: Republicans panicking over disastrous McCain campaign
Another article written by the Obama campaign about McCain.

Per Zogby, the race is 3 points now. Kerry was ahead by 8 the end of October 2004.

Obama is in absolute panic. All the billions spent and he can't close the deal.

The 11% of undecided independents are choosing McCain.

AMERICANS WILL NEVER ELECT SOMEONE LIKE OBAMA PRESIDENT.
 Quoting: PACNWGUY 501628

Dude, save yourself:

Why McCain Won

Snatching Defeat From The Jaws Of Victory: How That Scenario Could (But Likely Won't) Play Out.

The conventional wisdom, which I share, is that Barack Obama will win this election, perhaps by a healthy margin. But Democrats are nervous wrecks; they're having nightmares that defeat will be snatched from the jaws of victory. To add to their misery (and guard against complacency), here's how that horror film could play out:

In the end, the problem was the LIVs. That's short for "low-information voters,"

[link to www.newsweek.com]


Good luck, PacMan.
The blackening of roses will send you to the edges of the land/
The emerald tablets of Thoth the Atlantean/
The hands of the mighty Lion of Judah/
Will throw you through the triangular portals of Bermuda/
Exploring the Hologramic aspects of consciousness/
Anonymous Coward
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10/25/2008 11:57 PM
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Re: Republicans panicking over disastrous McCain campaign
I guess I'm dumb but the polls look fine to me. McCain is close enough. I think all things considered McCain will win.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 535075



Depends on how many points the repub-diebold machine can swing the vote.
Anonymous Coward
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10/26/2008 12:02 AM
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Re: Republicans panicking over disastrous McCain campaign
Another article written by the Obama campaign about McCain.

Per Zogby, the race is 3 points now. Kerry was ahead by 8 the end of October 2004.

Obama is in absolute panic. All the billions spent and he can't close the deal.

The 11% of undecided independents are choosing McCain.

AMERICANS WILL NEVER ELECT SOMEONE LIKE OBAMA PRESIDENT.
 Quoting: PACNWGUY 501628



[link to news.bostonherald.com]

Actually Zogby says 5.4% ahead for Obama and momenentum on Obama's side. What Zogby poll are you reading?
SunSpot  (OP)

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10/26/2008 12:15 AM
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Re: Republicans panicking over disastrous McCain campaign
Another article written by the Obama campaign about McCain.

Per Zogby, the race is 3 points now. Kerry was ahead by 8 the end of October 2004.

Obama is in absolute panic. All the billions spent and he can't close the deal.

The 11% of undecided independents are choosing McCain.

AMERICANS WILL NEVER ELECT SOMEONE LIKE OBAMA PRESIDENT.
 Quoting: PACNWGUY 501628


Um, the author was a Bush adviser and speechwriter.

And this time four years ago Bush had a three-point lead:

[link to www.realclearpolitics.com]

And according to the latest Zogby, Obama has an overwhelming 10% lead with 7% undecided:

[link to www.zogby.com]

Keep in mind that due to the way things are looking in the electoral college, McCain needs to win by at least 3% in the popular vote in order to be confident of being elected.
Anonymous Coward
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10/26/2008 12:28 AM
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Re: Republicans panicking over disastrous McCain campaign
Alrighty then...

... the best part of this scenario is that John Sununu will be out of the mix..
he's a scary anti-american if there ever was one.

RCP Average 10/16 - 10/24 -- -- 50.4 42.4 Obama +8.0
Rasmussen Reports 10/22 - 10/24 3000 LV 2.0 52 44 Obama +8
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/22 - 10/24 2413 LV 2.0 51 44 Obama +7
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/22 - 10/24 2358 LV 2.0 51 43 Obama +8
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/22 - 10/24 1203 LV 2.9 51 42 Obama +9
Hotline/FD 10/22 - 10/24 869 LV 3.3 50 43 Obama +7
Newsweek 10/22 - 10/23 882 LV 4.0 53 41 Obama +12
ABC News/Wash Post 10/21 - 10/24 1321 LV 2.5 53 44 Obama +9
IBD/TIPP 10/20 - 10/24 989 LV 3.9 46 42 Obama +4
GWU/Battleground 10/19 - 10/23 1000 LV 3.1 49 46 Obama +3
CBS News/NY Times 10/19 - 10/22 771 LV -- 52 39 Obama +13
FOX News 10/20 - 10/21 936 LV 3.0 49 40 Obama +9
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/17 - 10/20 1159 RV 2.9 52 42 Obama +10
Associated Press/GfK 10/16 - 10/20 800 LV 3.5 44 43 Obama +1
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/16 - 10/20 773 LV 3.5 50 42 Obama +8
CNN/Opinion Research 10/17 - 10/19 764 LV 3.5 51 46 Obama +5
Pew Research 10/16 - 10/19 2382 LV 2.5 53 39 Obama +14
:::vishuz

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10/26/2008 12:28 AM
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Re: Republicans panicking over disastrous McCain campaign
Alrighty then...

... the best part of this scenario is that John Sununu will be out of the mix..
he's a scary anti-american if there ever was one.

RCP Average 10/16 - 10/24 -- -- 50.4 42.4 Obama +8.0
Rasmussen Reports 10/22 - 10/24 3000 LV 2.0 52 44 Obama +8
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/22 - 10/24 2413 LV 2.0 51 44 Obama +7
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/22 - 10/24 2358 LV 2.0 51 43 Obama +8
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/22 - 10/24 1203 LV 2.9 51 42 Obama +9
Hotline/FD 10/22 - 10/24 869 LV 3.3 50 43 Obama +7
Newsweek 10/22 - 10/23 882 LV 4.0 53 41 Obama +12
ABC News/Wash Post 10/21 - 10/24 1321 LV 2.5 53 44 Obama +9
IBD/TIPP 10/20 - 10/24 989 LV 3.9 46 42 Obama +4
GWU/Battleground 10/19 - 10/23 1000 LV 3.1 49 46 Obama +3
CBS News/NY Times 10/19 - 10/22 771 LV -- 52 39 Obama +13
FOX News 10/20 - 10/21 936 LV 3.0 49 40 Obama +9
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/17 - 10/20 1159 RV 2.9 52 42 Obama +10
Associated Press/GfK 10/16 - 10/20 800 LV 3.5 44 43 Obama +1
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/16 - 10/20 773 LV 3.5 50 42 Obama +8
CNN/Opinion Research 10/17 - 10/19 764 LV 3.5 51 46 Obama +5
Pew Research 10/16 - 10/19 2382 LV 2.5 53 39 Obama +14
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 535097



:mcc2: :mcc2: :mcc2: :mcc2:
The blackening of roses will send you to the edges of the land/
The emerald tablets of Thoth the Atlantean/
The hands of the mighty Lion of Judah/
Will throw you through the triangular portals of Bermuda/
Exploring the Hologramic aspects of consciousness/
Winningjob

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10/26/2008 12:29 AM
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Re: Republicans panicking over disastrous McCain campaign
Obama and McCain =
welcometoN
Anonymous Coward
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10/26/2008 12:51 AM
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Re: Republicans panicking over disastrous McCain campaign
No matter who wins, bushie will not leave.
Anonymous Coward
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10/26/2008 12:53 AM
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Re: Republicans panicking over disastrous McCain campaign
that's why they are abandoning ship left and right! This election has been full of surprises, but I don't think I've ever seen well known conservative republicans endorse a Democratic candidate for the presidentcy do the degree that has happened this year!

Truely amazing!
Anonymous Coward
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10/26/2008 12:53 AM
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Re: Republicans panicking over disastrous McCain campaign
No matter who wins, bushie will not leave.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 487325


He's the quintessential, presidential, herpes virus.
SunSpot  (OP)

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10/26/2008 01:10 AM
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Re: Republicans panicking over disastrous McCain campaign
Even more bad news for McCain:

Could McCain lose his home state?
By: Mike Allen
October 25, 2008 11:18 PM EST

Democrats are circulating a poll showing Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) losing ground in his own state, an ominous sign for his beleaguered campaign as state after state turns blues.

Project New West, which aims to build the Democratic Party in the Intermountain West, says McCain leads Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) in the Grand Canyon State, 48 percent to 44 percent.

The pollsters call that a “dramatic shift” from a survey they took in mid-September, which had McCain ahead by 14 points, 54 percent to 40 percent.

“Bad News for McCain: Presidential Contest in Arizona has Closed in Arizona And McCain Now Leads By Just 4 Points,” says a memo from pollsters Andrew Myers of Myers Research and Strategic Services, and Lisa Grove of Grove Research.

The poll of 600 likely Arizona voters was taken Thursday and Friday, and has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

McCain has represented Arizona in the House or Senate for a quarter century — since 1982.

In 2000, President Bush won Arizona by 6 percentage points. In 2004, he widened that to 11 percentage points.

Most polling has showed McCain winning his home state easily. The Real Clear Politics average of Arizona polls gives McCain an 11.3-point advantage over Obama.

The McCain campaign did not respond to requests for comment.

- [link to dyn.politico.com]
:::vishuz

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10/26/2008 01:14 AM
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Re: Republicans panicking over disastrous McCain campaign
Yes!

It's time!

FUCK YES!

FINALLY!

NO MORE NEOCONS!

I cannot wait for all of this to be over.

If the next 4 years fuck up, I'm locked & loaded & ready to rock. FYI. (4 years.)


The blackening of roses will send you to the edges of the land/
The emerald tablets of Thoth the Atlantean/
The hands of the mighty Lion of Judah/
Will throw you through the triangular portals of Bermuda/
Exploring the Hologramic aspects of consciousness/
Anonymous Coward
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10/26/2008 01:16 AM
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Re: Republicans panicking over disastrous McCain campaign
why should we poll?

they are biased and after the whole Kerry thing
you expect us to believe polls?

a poll is just another way to turn the sheeple to vote a prefered way



wake up
:::vishuz

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10/26/2008 01:18 AM
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Re: Republicans panicking over disastrous McCain campaign
why should we poll?

they are biased and after the whole Kerry thing
you expect us to believe polls?

a poll is just another way to turn the sheeple to vote a prefered way



wake up
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 532905

I'm not voting personally, but I want all this shit to be over.

Change the fucking executive and legislative branches already! I've personally had enough... 8 years is fucking enough.

=D
The blackening of roses will send you to the edges of the land/
The emerald tablets of Thoth the Atlantean/
The hands of the mighty Lion of Judah/
Will throw you through the triangular portals of Bermuda/
Exploring the Hologramic aspects of consciousness/
PACNWGUY
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10/26/2008 01:42 AM
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Re: Republicans panicking over disastrous McCain campaign
Another article written by the Obama campaign about McCain.

Per Zogby, the race is 3 points now. Kerry was ahead by 8 the end of October 2004.

Obama is in absolute panic. All the billions spent and he can't close the deal.

The 11% of undecided independents are choosing McCain.

AMERICANS WILL NEVER ELECT SOMEONE LIKE OBAMA PRESIDENT.



[link to news.bostonherald.com]

Actually Zogby says 5.4% ahead for Obama and momenentum on Obama's side. What Zogby poll are you reading?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 431562


The new poll breaking now on drudge.
:::vishuz

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10/26/2008 01:46 AM
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Re: Republicans panicking over disastrous McCain campaign
Doesn't matter anyhow... Obama and the DEMs have already won:

[link to www.cnn.com]

I love common sense.
The blackening of roses will send you to the edges of the land/
The emerald tablets of Thoth the Atlantean/
The hands of the mighty Lion of Judah/
Will throw you through the triangular portals of Bermuda/
Exploring the Hologramic aspects of consciousness/
Anonymous Coward
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10/26/2008 03:39 AM
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Re: Republicans panicking over disastrous McCain campaign
I actually think that we should give ALL the power to the democrats, because ninety percent of the things Bush DID were all wrong.


How long will it take to clean up his mess?

To have peace?

To recover the economy?

To restore the good name of Americans around the world?



Oh, Lord, how long?



The pendulum needs to swing back to the masses, back to the poor and the middle class.

Sick of seeing record profits for oil companies.
SunSpot  (OP)

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10/26/2008 09:11 AM
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Re: Republicans panicking over disastrous McCain campaign
Another article written by the Obama campaign about McCain.

Per Zogby, the race is 3 points now. Kerry was ahead by 8 the end of October 2004.

Obama is in absolute panic. All the billions spent and he can't close the deal.

The 11% of undecided independents are choosing McCain.

AMERICANS WILL NEVER ELECT SOMEONE LIKE OBAMA PRESIDENT.



[link to news.bostonherald.com]

Actually Zogby says 5.4% ahead for Obama and momenentum on Obama's side. What Zogby poll are you reading?


The new poll breaking now on drudge.
 Quoting: PACNWGUY 501628


One out of every twenty polls is going to be outside the margin of error (that's how "margin of error" is defined). If, as Drudge does, you pick the latest one that's most favorable to McCain, you're going to get a misleading picture of the situation.
Anonymous Coward
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10/26/2008 10:53 AM
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Re: Republicans panicking over disastrous McCain campaign
Gee with guys like Pac and Lotus around to spread the gospel no wonder why. The best part is they are all still wondering why? this will go down as one of the worst Republican politcal defeats in history. LOL





GLP