San Francisco;...( 6.6 to 7.4 ) earthquake is now LIKELY in the San Francisco area November 5-9

Luke, please explain: What does "likely" mean? 50% chance? 20% chance? 95% chance?

I know I asked this before, but lost track of the thread before you could answer.

Thanks much.
AC

Luke, when a predicted EQ takes longer to happen then expected, does the energy keep building up, making the EQ stronger when it eventually happens?

Maybe this is tptb getting rid of obamas supporters for him, so he has no one making waves for him when he renages on his promises to them.

"likely" - I don't think this word means what you think it means

indubitably

PFFFT what happened to the 5.5 that was "predicted " by this guy like 3 weeks ago. Might as wll be EAT callin it.

No.

>>> Good Afternoon ....

When I say "possible" that means a 30% risk.
When I say "expected" that means a 50% risk.
When I say "likely" that means a 70% risk.

Thanks for asking !

Luke

The pressure/risk/energy has built (according to my data) to 6.6 to 7.4 ...

The earthquake within the next 5 days in San Francisco (most likely on November 7th) may only be a 5.0 ...

If it's only a 5.0 quake I will make adjustments to my forecast formula. However, even a 5.0 earthquake is capable of damage.

Luke
[link to www.quakeprediction.com]

Hi luke yesterday I felt that we would get a large quake . I guess around 7.1 .I feel a big one is coming real soon. cheers.

Someone else sent me an email about an earthquake dream they had ... Interesting ...


Luke

Road trip!

How exactly are you making your predictions/ Geology is not an exact science so I am curious as to what equipment you are using.

Also, what happens when it passes 70% and goes to 80 - 90 % and even then DOES NOT HAPPEN?

I use thermal temperature changes, and human/animal behaviour in 124 cities in San Francisco.... and 124 cities in Los Angeles.

I update this data every day.

Luke

yeah WTF are you basing this on OP

k...

i saw this dudes prediction before.

he failed miserably.

not saying this will be a fail for sure...but i saw him fail in a big way before.

the real quake will be in the pacific northwest on dec 10-12. and this will be a BIG ONE.

Those faults are in continuous motion ...
The Hayward fault has been compressing for 140 years.
Every 140 years it releases its latent energy and then the compression begins again....
My forecast is based on thermal temperature changes however.... and the energy/risk is peaking in San Francisco on November 7th.

Luke

>>> Thermal temperature changes and Human/animal behaviour.

thank you.

resident remote viewer cassandra has been forseeing a 7.0+ eq for modesto, with absolute confidence

Let's ROCK AND ROLL!!!

Hmmmm..... Modesto is directly east of Hayward....
I think she may be feeling the energy coming from Hayward.
An earthquake in Hayward would be felt in Modesto.


Luke

BULLshit.

NO ONE can predict earthquakes successfully.



.

I think you mean "potential energy".
Since pressure is building up, it is always at a "peak".
Perhaps you mean it will reach the "release threshold" on such and such a date.

and if there's nothing.... or only a Mw2?

not quite true... any smaller qauke on the fault releases energy for that area. quakes on nearby faults can increase energy on other faults, also certain size earthquakes on parts of a fault can increase potentials on other parts. 140 year in an "average"... not an exact.

the fault nearest Modesto has not been known to ever get that high. Cassandra doesn't know which fault he's seeing,and has been saying "soon" for years...

Here is the latest forecast;

San Francisco;...( 6.7 to 7.4 ) earthquake is now LIKELY (75% risk) in the San Francisco area November 6-9. Earthquake warning November 6-8 for the cities of San Carlos, Foster City, Hayward, Moraga, Oakland, Alameda, Berkeley. The earthquake is most likely on November 7,8...Friday evening or Saturday morning. Please see video for details.


A 2.6 earthquake just hit close to the area of concern;

Magnitude 2.6 - duration magnitude (Md)
Time Thursday, November 6, 2008 at 7:33:17 AM (PST)
Thursday, November 6, 2008 at 15:33:17 (UTC)
Distance from Portola Valley, CA - 4 km (2 miles) W (270 degrees)
Woodside, CA - 5 km (3 miles) S (183 degrees)
Emerald Lake Hills, CA - 10 km (6 miles) S (178 degrees)
Sunnyvale, CA - 21 km (13 miles) W (271 degrees)
San Jose City Hall, CA - 33 km (20 miles) W (277 degrees)