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Peter Schiff Was Wrong

 
mathetes
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01/26/2009 12:33 PM
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Peter Schiff Was Wrong
I know there are a ton of Schiff fans here on GLP,but the fact is if you invested money with him you LOST


There are numerous YouTube videos, articles, and references to Peter Schiff being "right" rapidly circulating the globe. While Schiff was indeed correct about the US imploding, most of the praise heaped on Schiff is simply unwarranted, and I can prove it.

First, let's start with a look at the claim being made. Peter Schiff concludes many of his articles, books, etc. with the following statement.


Mr. Schiff is one of the few non-biased investment advisors (not committed solely to the short side of the market) to have correctly called the current bear market before it began and to have positioned his clients accordingly.
Highlight in red is mine.

I would like to see some proof of that statement. Specifically I would like to see the average returns posted by EuroPacific clients for 2008.

I have talked with many who claim they have invested with Schiff and are down anywhere from 40% to 70% in 2008. There are many other such claims on the internet. They are entirely believable for the simple reason Schiff's investment thesis was flat out wrong.

I have an actual portfolio statement from one of Schiff's clients at the end to discuss, for now let's discuss the main points of Schiff's thesis.

Schiff's Overall Thesis


US Equity Markets Will Crash.
US Dollar Will Go To Zero (Hyperinflation).
Decoupling (The rest of the world would be immune to a US slowdown.
Buy foreign equities and commodities and hold them with no exit strategy.



Schiff was correct about point number 1 above. The US equity markets crashed. That was a very good call. Unfortunately, his investment thesis centered on shorting the dollar in a hyperinflation bet, and buying foreign equities rather than shorting US equities.

Furthermore, Schiff made no allowances for being wrong and had no exit strategy whatsoever.

What happened in 2008 was that foreign equities sold off much harder than US equities, and a strengthening US dollar compounded the situation.

In other words, Schiff failed where it matters most: Peter Schiff did not protect his client's assets. Let's take a look how, and more importantly why, starting with charts of various foreign indices.


Rest of very long article at link
















[link to globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com]
For I would not, brethren, that ye should be ignorant of this mystery, lest ye should be wise in your own conceits; that blindness in part is happened to Israel, until the fulness of the Gentiles be come in.
Anonymous Coward
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01/26/2009 12:34 PM
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Wrong
Yes this is true. He called the financial collapse in the US right, but so did many other people!! He has been dead wrong about everything else he said. GLPers like to ignore that fact.
Omega

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01/26/2009 12:36 PM
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Wrong
He was was premature on the US dollar collapse and was burned.......

Otherwise at least he tried to warn people of the multiple bubbles......and I note with great amusement he ain't laughed off the set no more.....
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Anonymous Coward
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01/26/2009 12:39 PM
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Wrong
it's not over tool, the dollar will crumble and he'll prove to be right again.. TARP got in the way
mathetes  (OP)

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01/26/2009 12:39 PM
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Wrong
He was was premature on the US dollar collapse and was burned.......

Otherwise at least he tried to warn people of the multiple bubbles......and I note with great amusement he ain't laughed off the set no more.....
 Quoting: Omega

Don't get me wrong I enjoy watching him..but not only was he wrong on the dollar but also on Decoupling (The rest of the world would be immune to a US slowdown.
And his advice to his clients to buy foreign equities and commodities cost them MONEY

Just some balance :}
For I would not, brethren, that ye should be ignorant of this mystery, lest ye should be wise in your own conceits; that blindness in part is happened to Israel, until the fulness of the Gentiles be come in.
mathetes  (OP)

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01/26/2009 12:40 PM
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Wrong
it's not over tool, the dollar will crumble and he'll prove to be right again.. TARP got in the way
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 601406

lol ok. You can't deny that he lost his clients MONEY
For I would not, brethren, that ye should be ignorant of this mystery, lest ye should be wise in your own conceits; that blindness in part is happened to Israel, until the fulness of the Gentiles be come in.
Anonymous Coward
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01/26/2009 12:42 PM
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Wrong
it's not over tool, the dollar will crumble and he'll prove to be right again.. TARP got in the way
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 601406



The dollar might collapse but so will every other fiat currency! And peter will lose people a ton of money once again. There are no safe havens petey!
Madoogan

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01/26/2009 12:54 PM
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Wrong
Peter Schiffs Father


Irwin A. Schiff (born 1928) is a prominent member of the United States group which refers to itself as the tax honesty movement, and which has been referred to by the Internal Revenue Service and other government agencies as the tax protester movement. Schiff is known for writing and promoting literature that claims the United States income tax is applied incorrectly. He has lost several civil cases against the federal government and has a record of multiple convictions for various federal tax crimes. Schiff is serving a 13-plus year sentence for tax crimes (with his status shown as "in transit" between prison facilities as of August 26, 2008). His projected release date is 7 October 2016.[1] Irwin Schiff is also the father of stockbroker Peter Schiff, who is credited as a co-author of Irwin Schiff's 1985 book, "The Great Income Tax Hoax: Why You Can Immediately Stop Paying This Illegally Enforced Tax".
"The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people, it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government."
Anonymous Coward
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01/26/2009 12:56 PM
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no one is perfect while he may had lose 70% alot of people lost 100%.

peter shiff and ron paul are still the only ones not being given a government paycheck to lie on air.
Dervish

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01/26/2009 12:59 PM
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Wrong
We independant thinkers tend to be lemmings.

He was right on one and was so against what the mainstream was saying, he has to be correct on everything....and we skip off the cliff.

Sadly for us, no one really knows how this will pan out.
You could have done the "smart" thing and sold gold at nearly 1100/ounce. But then you risk not having any when/if the dollar collapses.

You could have bought airline stocks or AIG when they went to pennies. And made a killing the next week. Only to get screwed later.

You can believe all sorts of doom and gloom and buy a retreat in the Rockies, that is worth 50 percent of what you paid for.

You could believe bloggers like Hypertiger and really expect to be screwed in a few short weeks.

Me, I believe that they all have a part of the answer. The gist of which is the system will collapse under its own weight. To ease the burden and create a structure-like a phoenix, we need less resistence to change. The best way to do that is via trauma and stress- Peak oil, famine, bird flu etc.

Money is a tool to aid you, it shouldn't be the goal to just get more. With my money I bought a farm recently--Omega, pics are coming, computer issues zapped me. That land will be for food production if it goes tits up, and for a plantation of a crop that will get me a healthy retirement income if it doesn't go tits up.-Not weed :)

Right now, I am like an aethiest in a foxhole under fire, I am praying and covering my bets. Don't believe any one guru, but keep your eyes open.

The end goal in my opinion is total accumulation of wealth by a elite few, with crumbs for the rest of us.A lack of independence and liberty like the old days of serfs and lords. But this time instead of being a slave to a lord you are a slave to a corporate elite.

How will you buy your freedom?
I know enough to know that I know nothing
mathetes  (OP)

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01/26/2009 01:01 PM
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Wrong
Peter Schiffs Father


Irwin A. Schiff (born 1928) is a prominent member of the United States group which refers to itself as the tax honesty movement, and which has been referred to by the Internal Revenue Service and other government agencies as the tax protester movement. Schiff is known for writing and promoting literature that claims the United States income tax is applied incorrectly. He has lost several civil cases against the federal government and has a record of multiple convictions for various federal tax crimes. Schiff is serving a 13-plus year sentence for tax crimes (with his status shown as "in transit" between prison facilities as of August 26, 2008). His projected release date is 7 October 2016.[1] Irwin Schiff is also the father of stockbroker Peter Schiff, who is credited as a co-author of Irwin Schiff's 1985 book, "The Great Income Tax Hoax: Why You Can Immediately Stop Paying This Illegally Enforced Tax".
 Quoting: Madoogan

Thanks for that info...
For I would not, brethren, that ye should be ignorant of this mystery, lest ye should be wise in your own conceits; that blindness in part is happened to Israel, until the fulness of the Gentiles be come in.
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Wrong
Peter Schiffs Father


Irwin A. Schiff (born 1928) is a prominent member of the United States group which refers to itself as the tax honesty movement, and which has been referred to by the Internal Revenue Service and other government agencies as the tax protester movement. Schiff is known for writing and promoting literature that claims the United States income tax is applied incorrectly. He has lost several civil cases against the federal government and has a record of multiple convictions for various federal tax crimes. Schiff is serving a 13-plus year sentence for tax crimes (with his status shown as "in transit" between prison facilities as of August 26, 2008). His projected release date is 7 October 2016.[1] Irwin Schiff is also the father of stockbroker Peter Schiff, who is credited as a co-author of Irwin Schiff's 1985 book, "The Great Income Tax Hoax: Why You Can Immediately Stop Paying This Illegally Enforced Tax".
 Quoting: Madoogan



I have listened to his general impression of where things were going for a couple of years and acted accordingly. It helped me. I didn't have money invested with him... maybe he is really good at some parts and sucks at another part of the game... maybe he should specialize and get out of managing portfolios and just report trends.
mathetes  (OP)

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01/26/2009 01:04 PM
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Wrong
Peter Schiffs Father


Irwin A. Schiff (born 1928) is a prominent member of the United States group which refers to itself as the tax honesty movement, and which has been referred to by the Internal Revenue Service and other government agencies as the tax protester movement. Schiff is known for writing and promoting literature that claims the United States income tax is applied incorrectly. He has lost several civil cases against the federal government and has a record of multiple convictions for various federal tax crimes. Schiff is serving a 13-plus year sentence for tax crimes (with his status shown as "in transit" between prison facilities as of August 26, 2008). His projected release date is 7 October 2016.[1] Irwin Schiff is also the father of stockbroker Peter Schiff, who is credited as a co-author of Irwin Schiff's 1985 book, "The Great Income Tax Hoax: Why You Can Immediately Stop Paying This Illegally Enforced Tax".



I have listened to his general impression of where things were going for a couple of years and acted accordingly. It helped me. I didn't have money invested with him... maybe he is really good at some parts and sucks at another part of the game... maybe he should specialize and get out of managing portfolios and just report trends.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 591484

You nailed it right there...bottom line, He is a BROKER
For I would not, brethren, that ye should be ignorant of this mystery, lest ye should be wise in your own conceits; that blindness in part is happened to Israel, until the fulness of the Gentiles be come in.
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01/26/2009 01:06 PM
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Wrong
Peter Schiffs Father


Irwin A. Schiff (born 1928) is a prominent member of the United States group which refers to itself as the tax honesty movement, and which has been referred to by the Internal Revenue Service and other government agencies as the tax protester movement. Schiff is known for writing and promoting literature that claims the United States income tax is applied incorrectly. He has lost several civil cases against the federal government and has a record of multiple convictions for various federal tax crimes. Schiff is serving a 13-plus year sentence for tax crimes (with his status shown as "in transit" between prison facilities as of August 26, 2008). His projected release date is 7 October 2016.[1] Irwin Schiff is also the father of stockbroker Peter Schiff, who is credited as a co-author of Irwin Schiff's 1985 book, "The Great Income Tax Hoax: Why You Can Immediately Stop Paying This Illegally Enforced Tax".



I have listened to his general impression of where things were going for a couple of years and acted accordingly. It helped me. I didn't have money invested with him... maybe he is really good at some parts and sucks at another part of the game... maybe he should specialize and get out of managing portfolios and just report trends.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 591484


His father being a bit of a rebel does nothing but make me like his son even more...
Is45

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01/26/2009 01:09 PM
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Wrong
Peter is a chip off the old block.

Irwin Schiff is Peter's father.

Years ago when I worked part time as a hotel clerk,
Irwin would conduct tax protest meetings at the hotel.
I watched as otherwise nice law-abiding middle class
people attended his meetings. I wonder where they are now.




Irwin Schiff:

[link to en.wikipedia.org]


" Schiff is serving a 13-plus year sentence for tax crimes... "


" Irwin Schiff is also the father of stockbroker Peter Schiff, who is credited as a co-author of Irwin Schiff's 1985 book, The Great Income Tax Hoax: Why You Can Immediately Stop Paying This Illegally Enforced Tax. "


~
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Beyond, There Be Dragons
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Anonymous Coward
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01/26/2009 01:12 PM
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Wrong
still sucking up to your Zionist masters, eh, Mathetes???

you are a crappy shill.
Anonymous Coward
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01/26/2009 01:12 PM
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Wrong
Thanks for posting mathetes. While I do agree with Schiff on rise in gold, decline of dollar, debt bubble, etc., I always doubt his ability to comprehend that this will be a GLOBAL phenomenon. He's always talking up China and European markets. What he fails to realize is that if the US fails along with its dollar, markets worldwide will be hit greatly, a sort of domino effect.

Best to do your own investment and research. Not simply hand your money over to someone to manage it. If you lose $, you learn a lot about investing. If you lose a lot with 'money managers', you simply lose money. No knowledge gained.

The greatest friend your money will have is you.
mathetes  (OP)

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01/26/2009 01:15 PM
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Wrong
Thanks for posting mathetes. While I do agree with Schiff on rise in gold, decline of dollar, debt bubble, etc., I always doubt his ability to comprehend that this will be a GLOBAL phenomenon. He's always talking up China and European markets. What he fails to realize is that if the US fails along with its dollar, markets worldwide will be hit greatly, a sort of domino effect.

Best to do your own investment and research. Not simply hand your money over to someone to manage it. If you lose $, you learn a lot about investing. If you lose a lot with 'money managers', you simply lose money. No knowledge gained.

The greatest friend your money will have is you.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 466070

Well said!
For I would not, brethren, that ye should be ignorant of this mystery, lest ye should be wise in your own conceits; that blindness in part is happened to Israel, until the fulness of the Gentiles be come in.
Anonymous Coward
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01/26/2009 01:15 PM
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Wrong
I would appear to me that Schiff was correct about everything except investing overseas. On that he is around 50% correct.

Many of those countries are going into the tank.

Best place to invest is back into yourself. By a shitload of tools, rakes, shovels, torches, welders, grinders, gardening tools, more.

Buy a shitload of food

Buy a shitload of seeds

Buy a fishing pole and a shitload of hooks / line

Buy a shitload personal items

Get a gas mask because there will be smoke from things that are burning. You don't want to get sick when there aren't any hospitals.

Make business cards with ALL the trades you offer

Prepare to barter. You can take gold as long as you know how to wheel and deal with gold.

If you don't make these investments, you are concentration camp slaves.
mathetes  (OP)

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01/26/2009 01:16 PM
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Wrong
still sucking up to your Zionist masters, eh, Mathetes???

you are a crappy shill.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 140243

lol So what part of the post is wrong? I'll be waiting.....
For I would not, brethren, that ye should be ignorant of this mystery, lest ye should be wise in your own conceits; that blindness in part is happened to Israel, until the fulness of the Gentiles be come in.
Is45

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01/26/2009 01:30 PM
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Wrong
still sucking up to your Zionist masters, eh, Mathetes???

you are a crappy shill.

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 140243



Is Schiff a non-zionist jew [if there is such a thing] ?



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Anonymous Coward
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01/26/2009 01:30 PM
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Great link! Thanks for info.
Anonymous Coward
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01/26/2009 01:37 PM
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Wrong
The dollar is destined to collapse it is based on nothing, and all fiat currency fails eventually

so he is not wrong, he is just ahead of everyone else

they scoffed and laughed in '96, now they laugh again

and he who laughs last laughs best.

our dollar should be so hard that it lands like a brick, cause we are the movers of the world, we have more natural resources, the breadbasket of the world.

and we have a dollar awaiting collapse, a meatrix in action destined for a major outbreak, sad indeed.
Anonymous Coward
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01/26/2009 01:46 PM
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Wrong
I have researched this myself. It all depends when you invested with Schiff. I will defend him in the following ways:

1) He has been long on gold since it was around 300 dollars. Had you dumped your dollars for gold back then you would be up over 400 dollars an ounce right now.

2) Yes he has been pumping foreign stocks and yes some of those markets have gone down even more so than US markets. He tends to recommend stocks with high paying dividends. Therefore the stock percentage decline of these stocks don't tell the entire story.

3) A loss is only a loss if you sell. If his clients stick with the stocks that he has suggested he believes they will go back to their previous levels and MUCH MUCH higher.

4) In 2008 we saw ALL markets collapse. That includes US stocks, foreign stocks, and eventually commodities.

Considering how RIGHT he has been all along and considering that his main advice about gold CONTINUES to be right you sir are WRONG about Pet Schiff being...wrong.
Freethinker

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01/26/2009 01:59 PM
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The end goal in my opinion is total accumulation of wealth by a elite few, with crumbs for the rest of us.A lack of independence and liberty like the old days of serfs and lords. But this time instead of being a slave to a lord you are a slave to a corporate elite.

How will you buy your freedom?
 Quoting: Dervish



I am glad you have a farm.

I am going to say this and you can believe it or not, I have no evidence other than my own observations:

The elite do not want to enslave you. You have always been their slave. They want status quo. They want exactly what you want. They want security, peace, and for those seeking to take what they have worked to acquire to just go away.

The true enemy is he that seeks to take what you have worked for and redistribute it to those in need. I am not talking about public works; we all need roads and bridges and clean water...I am talking about wealth redistribution at the hands of those that have no idea what it takes in terms of labor and risk to earn wealth. The government operates now off stolen funds. (They have an army and a court system, so I guess what they do is armed robbery, but still...)

you can't continue to compel loyalty. Moral doesn't improve with more frequent beatings.

They want a cut of your profit and they want you to behave.
all authority is given to me
Anonymous Coward
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01/26/2009 02:06 PM
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Wrong
I been tellin yas. Deflation is here! About the dollar collapsing, it is a simple choice between the best of bad. The dollar wins.
mathetes  (OP)

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01/26/2009 02:07 PM
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Wrong
I have researched this myself. It all depends when you invested with Schiff. I will defend him in the following ways:

3) A loss is only a loss if you sell. If his clients stick with the stocks that he has suggested he believes they will go back to their previous levels and MUCH MUCH higher.


 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 550745

lol You must be a client,thats the #1 excuse he gives.
Well in that case everyone on Wall Street really hasn't lost any money.

Much,much higher? You are a true believer
For I would not, brethren, that ye should be ignorant of this mystery, lest ye should be wise in your own conceits; that blindness in part is happened to Israel, until the fulness of the Gentiles be come in.
mathetes  (OP)

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01/26/2009 02:12 PM
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Wrong
I been tellin yas. Deflation is here! About the dollar collapsing, it is a simple choice between the best of bad. The dollar wins.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 477567

Deflation is here..another thing Schiff Was Wrong about..

100% agree about the dollar, the best way I have seen it put is all the currencies are ugly, the question is which is the least ugly
For I would not, brethren, that ye should be ignorant of this mystery, lest ye should be wise in your own conceits; that blindness in part is happened to Israel, until the fulness of the Gentiles be come in.
Anonymous Coward
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01/26/2009 02:15 PM
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Wrong
I have researched this myself. It all depends when you invested with Schiff. I will defend him in the following ways:

3) A loss is only a loss if you sell. If his clients stick with the stocks that he has suggested he believes they will go back to their previous levels and MUCH MUCH higher.



lol You must be a client,thats the #1 excuse he gives.
Well in that case everyone on Wall Street really hasn't lost any money.

Much,much higher? You are a true believer
 Quoting: mathetes


I am not, nor have I ever been a client of his. Also, I am only quoting him on this point. I don't know what stocks he buys for his clients.

I do know that his general trading advice is good advice. The foreign markets are going to recover quickly.

Everybody knows China is about to take over. That's where I've invested my money (and yes a lot of my stocks took a hit there but I'm not selling and I'm buying more)
mathetes  (OP)

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01/26/2009 02:26 PM
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Wrong
I have researched this myself. It all depends when you invested with Schiff. I will defend him in the following ways:

3) A loss is only a loss if you sell. If his clients stick with the stocks that he has suggested he believes they will go back to their previous levels and MUCH MUCH higher.



lol You must be a client,thats the #1 excuse he gives.
Well in that case everyone on Wall Street really hasn't lost any money.

Much,much higher? You are a true believer


I am not, nor have I ever been a client of his. Also, I am only quoting him on this point. I don't know what stocks he buys for his clients.

I do know that his general trading advice is good advice. The foreign markets are going to recover quickly.

Everybody knows China is about to take over. That's where I've invested my money (and yes a lot of my stocks took a hit there but I'm not selling and I'm buying more)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 550745

Hey I wish you well with that..the point of this post was to show a side that NEVER gets any TV time.

Btw on China

"China will sink into deflation this year, no doubt about that," said Lu Zhengwei, a Shanghai-based economist with Industrial Bank.

[link to news.smh.com.au]
For I would not, brethren, that ye should be ignorant of this mystery, lest ye should be wise in your own conceits; that blindness in part is happened to Israel, until the fulness of the Gentiles be come in.
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01/26/2009 03:16 PM
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Wrong
still sucking up to your Zionist masters, eh, Mathetes???

you are a crappy shill.

lol So what part of the post is wrong? I'll be waiting.....
 Quoting: mathetes




what is wrong with this post is that YOU posted it. Once people understand what YOU stand for and what master YOU are beholden to, then people will realize that most of what you say is BS, skewed to the benefit of your masters.

Schiff could very well be controlled opposition, as well as Ron Paul. The fact is, nobody really knows by peoples' words as to whether or not they are trustworthy, but Ron Paul's life long actions have spoken to his stance and the fact that Ron Paul backs Schiff speaks volumes for me.

Noone is going to be 100% correct all the time. people make mistakes. Even your precious Jews.





GLP