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Global Systemic Crisis: Anticipations over 2008-2013 for six groups of countries experiencing very different evolutions

 
Anonymous Coward
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Switzerland
02/05/2009 06:21 PM
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Global Systemic Crisis: Anticipations over 2008-2013 for six groups of countries experiencing very different evolutions
Anticipations over 2008-2013 for six groups of countries experiencing very different evolutions

The global financial crisis, which went through a major tipping point in September 2008 as anticipated by LEAP/E2020 last February (1), is only the detonator of the global systemic crisis. The financial and monetary chaos of the past months were only the triggers of a series of economic, social and political crises that will from now on give the pace to the last phase of this global systemic crisis. The most severe consequences - in human, social, economic and political terms - are still ahead of us, not behind. In this October edition of the GEAB (N°28), we therefore chose to establish the anticipatory schedule of the so-called « decanting phase », i.e. a phase along which the outcome of the crisis begins reshaping the global system (2). Our studies thus enabled us to make anticipations for the 2008-2013 period and for 6 groups of countries differently impacted by the 4 specific sequences of this phase: financial crisis, economic crisis, social crisis and political crisis.

Indeed, if the first three phases of the crisis were common to the whole planet because they affected the same global system inherited from 1945 and 1989, the fourth phase takes place very differently according to the country and to the specific impact of the crisis for each country. The shock was common, but the trajectories will be different from now on. In fact they constitute the process of reorganisation of the global system and prefigure the new equilibriums that will appear in the coming decade.

According to our researchers, the scale of the impact phase of the crisis' outcome on the various countries of the planet commensurates with their degree of resistance to the explosion of the « financial detonator » that went off one year ago. The more a country is « immune » to this financial shock, the better it will cross over the crisis. LEAP/E2020 has therefore studied the situation for the main countries and regions of the world along 7 precise criteria enabling to measure their degree of « immunity » to the « financial detonator ».

. Share of the economy dedicated to the financial sector
. Share of the economy dedicated to services
. Level of household debt
. Quality of financial system and household assets
. Relative amount of public debt (municipalities and social systems included)
. Relative amount of external debt (trade and payment)
. Share of capital-based pensions on overall pension fund system.

Based on these criteria, our team was able to identify 6 major groups of countries hardly related geographically but with similar profiles.

To make the results of their study easier to read, LEAP/E2020 has decided to present them in a visual way by means of:
. a geographical map of the world highlighting these groups in six different colors
. a temporal chart of the 2008-2013 period, showing our anticipations of the duration for each of the 4 specific sequences of that decantation phase: financial crisis, economic crisis, social crisis and political crisis.
Some more detailed explanations follow each graphic.

Continue to read:
[link to www.leap2020.eu]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 122608
United States
02/05/2009 06:48 PM
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Re: Global Systemic Crisis: Anticipations over 2008-2013 for six groups of countries experiencing very different evolutions
According to this, the US is toast -- major impacts to all 7 precise criteria with a duration of crisis of 5-10 years. Only Great Britain and Iceland share our category of doom. And LEAP 20/20 is known for accurate analysis. Ooops...