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HOW MANY WILL DIE FROM PANDEMIC H1N1 FLU??? LETS RUN THE NUMBERS.

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 621072
United States
04/27/2009 04:30 AM
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HOW MANY WILL DIE FROM PANDEMIC H1N1 FLU??? LETS RUN THE NUMBERS.
If the death rate of those infected in Mexico is any indication of the mortality rate of this virus, then we are looking at a mortality rate of ~6%. Some have suggested that the number of reported cases is being under reported and that there may be more that were mildly ill. While it is possible that the number those who fell ill is actually higher than what is reported, it is ALSO possible that the number of dead is being underreported. Keep in mind that they are actively testing samples from those who died trying to determine if they were infected with the H1N1 Swine Flu.

For the sake of argument though, lets assume that the number of infected is actually 25% more than what is reported. This would have the effect of lowering the projected mortality rate from ~6.25% to ~5%.

So far there have ben ~21 cases of swine flu reported in the US and zero deaths. Those numbers are NOT conflict with a 5% fatality rate. Statistically, if this flu has a mortality rate of 5%, then you would expect to see 1 death for every 20 cases. Unfortunately, our sample size in the U.S. is too small to draw any meaningful conclusions at this point. However, we can state that given the current number of reported cases in the US, statistically, we would not necessarily expect to see a death yet.

So if we go with a 5% mortality rate and assume that only 7% of the U.S. population becomes infected - we would be looking at over 1 MILLION DEAD.

If 30% or 40% of the U.S. population became infected with a virus that has a 5% mortality rate - WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT 5+ MILLION DEAD

If just 7% of the World population falls ill with this virus and it exhibits a 5% mortality rate, 22+ MILLION DEAD

If 40% of the world population fell ill? - 150 MILLION DEAD

wow.
Anonymous Coward
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04/27/2009 05:08 AM
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Re: HOW MANY WILL DIE FROM PANDEMIC H1N1 FLU??? LETS RUN THE NUMBERS.
500 Million in the next six months!
CleverOne
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Australia
04/30/2009 03:17 AM
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Re: HOW MANY WILL DIE FROM PANDEMIC H1N1 FLU??? LETS RUN THE NUMBERS.
Or maybe the same amount that died in the SARS (Bird Flu) outbreak 5 years ago - not many.
Anonymous Coward
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04/30/2009 03:52 AM
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Re: HOW MANY WILL DIE FROM PANDEMIC H1N1 FLU??? LETS RUN THE NUMBERS.
200
Anonymous Coward
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04/30/2009 04:01 AM
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Re: HOW MANY WILL DIE FROM PANDEMIC H1N1 FLU??? LETS RUN THE NUMBERS.
500 Million in the next six months!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 639008

BTW, thats from the vaccines.
more will die from fear
User ID: 674973
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05/08/2009 05:14 PM
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Re: HOW MANY WILL DIE FROM PANDEMIC H1N1 FLU??? LETS RUN THE NUMBERS.
more people will die from fear , reading you nonsense black magic math (BTW many more stupid sites / blogs like this one)
than from the flu.
Unanynomous Coward
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Singapore
05/14/2009 11:54 AM
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Re: HOW MANY WILL DIE FROM PANDEMIC H1N1 FLU??? LETS RUN THE NUMBERS.
more will die from fear, you have a fear of math or sumfin? If you believe what they are saying, the teacher from texas who contracted H1N1 died from complications arising from... athritis. So H1N1 doesn't kill. Being pregnant does. Or something like that. Yeah, so swine flu hasn't really killed anybody.
noKnothing

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05/14/2009 11:55 AM
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Re: HOW MANY WILL DIE FROM PANDEMIC H1N1 FLU??? LETS RUN THE NUMBERS.
7 total.
(.__________________________________.)
ViperThunder

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05/14/2009 11:58 AM
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Re: HOW MANY WILL DIE FROM PANDEMIC H1N1 FLU??? LETS RUN THE NUMBERS.
0
Let There Be Peace
Wraithwynd

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05/14/2009 04:07 PM
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Re: HOW MANY WILL DIE FROM PANDEMIC H1N1 FLU??? LETS RUN THE NUMBERS.
Look at the 1918/19 outbreak of swine flu (called Spanish Flu)

Is first appearance was rather small, infecting few individuals, also having a lower death rate.

Its second appearance during the flu season it became far more virulent (deadly) and its ability to spread increased. It was its later spread that caused the most death.

The death rate we are looking at for CONFIRMED cases (as of 14th day of May 2009) 6462 confirmed cases 65 deaths is about .01%

Spanish flu is estimated to have started with a 0.425% mortality rate. In its opening attacks during its first season.

Interestingly this is based on its starting locations. To compare we need to look at Mexico with its 60 confirmed deaths against 2446 confirmed cases. This is roughly 0.02%

BUT we can not discount the differences in medical treatments over the past 90 years. The widespread use of oxygen in hospitals didn't take place until the 1920's, even forced air didn't come along until mid 1920's.

During its recurrence (Second Eave) the Spanish Flu had an ESTIMATED mortality rate between 2.5 to 5%.

Spanish Flu most likely followed the same pattern we are seeing with this H1N1, initially a high rate of death then its losing potency but spreading through the population.

Mind we are only seeing the numbers for CONFIRMED cases. This flu has the same symptoms as any other flu - so it is hard to distinguish without testing if a person has the H1N1 Novel flu or if they have some other more common flu.

This same problem faced the world in 1918/1919 with the exception they did not have the technology to distinguish between strains of flu. Our numbers we get (number of infected, number of moralities) is based on the assumption that reported cases were Spanish Flu cases.

Spanish flu was/is Influenza A virus strain of subtype H1N1

Swine flu is Influenza A subtype H1N1.

It is estimated that only 1/3rd of the worlds population became infected in 1918/19 - however there were other pandemics raging at the time, typhoid, yellow fever, diphtheria, and cholera.

Symptomology of these others:

Diphtheria: Fever; Chills; Bloody, watery drainage from nose; Croup-like (barking) cough; skin lesions in most tropical areas.

Typhoid: Severe headache, Fever, Loss of Appetite, General discomfort, uneasiness, or ill feeling (malaise), Constipation, then diarrhea, lethargic, Fatigue, Chills.
- Most commonly Rash (rose spots) appearing on the lower chest and abdomen during the second week of the fever the defining symptom - however not in all cases.

Yellow Fever: has similar symptoms, but also heart dysfunction, many cases of coma, Jaundice (yellowing of the skin due to liver dysfunction) is the defining symptom.

Cholera: In some cases fever, dehydration and diarreha is the defining symptoms (real bad) so bad that tears dry up.

Flu: Headache; Tiredness; Dry cough; Sore throat; Croupy cough, Chills, Fatigue, Sweating, Vomiting (which can lead to dehydration.

To the untrained eye Dipthera, Typhoid and cholera and less advanced or weaker cases of Yellow Fever can appear the same as the flu.

So we have no idea how many actually had the flu and if the pandemics of these others were actually the Spanish Flu.
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