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30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?

 
mimi
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06/10/2009 08:24 AM
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30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?
Only 46% of the bonds sold, 13 1/2 billion out of 30 B. Does anyone think the sale today will bomb?
LouisWinthorpeIII

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06/10/2009 08:29 AM
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Re: 30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?
getting 4% on the thing over 30 years... who would want it?
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Anonymous Coward
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06/10/2009 08:31 AM
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Re: 30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?
Only 46% of the bonds sold, 13 1/2 billion out of 30 B. Does anyone think the sale today will bomb?
 Quoting: mimi


Do you have any links to articles about this? The issue at hand is that the amount of new debt the FED needs to issue may exceed the world's available capital to finance it.
mimi  (OP)

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06/10/2009 08:57 AM
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Re: 30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?
Only 46% of the bonds sold, 13 1/2 billion out of 30 B. Does anyone think the sale today will bomb?


Do you have any links to articles about this? The issue at hand is that the amount of new debt the FED needs to issue may exceed the world's available capital to finance it.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 699372


No, haven't looked for any articles,,,this is what my trader told me. Makes me think the 30 yrs will really sink today but I don't know! Agree about the new debt needed and feel a good play would be Sept puts
Anonymous Coward
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06/10/2009 08:59 AM
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Re: 30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?
Only 46% of the bonds sold, 13 1/2 billion out of 30 B. Does anyone think the sale today will bomb?


Do you have any links to articles about this? The issue at hand is that the amount of new debt the FED needs to issue may exceed the world's available capital to finance it.


No, haven't looked for any articles,,,this is what my trader told me. Makes me think the 30 yrs will really sink today but I don't know! Agree about the new debt needed and feel a good play would be Sept puts
 Quoting: mimi


If you think the auctions are going to fail, the direct trade is just to short the bonds.
Anonymous Coward
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06/10/2009 09:08 AM
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Re: 30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?
Yields are up this morning. Not a good sign for bonds.
mimi  (OP)

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06/10/2009 11:43 AM
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Re: 30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?
wow! I decided to take a chance on some futures...so far, very good but probably just beginner's luck, knock on wood! Anybody else doing this?
Anonymous Coward
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06/10/2009 11:44 AM
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Re: 30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?
wow! I decided to take a chance on some futures...so far, very good but probably just beginner's luck, knock on wood! Anybody else doing this?
 Quoting: mimi


95% of all small traders go on to lose all their money trading futures. You are trading against professionals with deep pockets in a zero sum game.
Anonymous Coward
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06/10/2009 12:16 PM
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Re: 30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?
No it wasn't a bust yesterday, that percentage of sale is actually not bad, Today (after 1 PM) will be a good test with $19 bill in 10 yr bonds going up for sale, Russia is reporting it will be dumping US bonds for IMF bonds which will cause yields to jump up, (IMAO).
Is 4% here? Big news if it is.
Darkman

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06/10/2009 12:41 PM

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Re: 30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?
No it wasn't a bust yesterday, that percentage of sale is actually not bad, Today (after 1 PM) will be a good test with $19 bill in 10 yr bonds going up for sale, Russia is reporting it will be dumping US bonds for IMF bonds which will cause yields to jump up, (IMAO).
Is 4% here? Big news if it is.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 606636


so, will we hear about this auction after 1 pm today? or later?
mimi  (OP)

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06/10/2009 01:01 PM
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Re: 30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?
I made 8 points then got out after lowering my stop once. I'm definately a 'little guy' and you're right about playing against the pros but today was actually my 5th time. So my modis operandi is: I started with under $400 and 1 short position and held back 1/2 my profits each time I went short. I've been placing my stop loss carefully and plan to never lose more than I put in. I don't need to make a million ( although I wouldn't mind!)...just a small enough to cover certain expenses.
mimi  (OP)

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06/10/2009 01:05 PM
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Re: 30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?
No it wasn't a bust yesterday, that percentage of sale is actually not bad, Today (after 1 PM) will be a good test with $19 bill in 10 yr bonds going up for sale, Russia is reporting it will be dumping US bonds for IMF bonds which will cause yields to jump up, (IMAO).
Is 4% here? Big news if it is.

So I wonder if I should jump back in??


so, will we hear about this auction after 1 pm today? or later?
 Quoting: Darkman


You can watch it now! The 10 year is 3.98% right now
all2human
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06/10/2009 01:07 PM
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Re: 30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?
Only 46% of the bonds sold, 13 1/2 billion out of 30 B. Does anyone think the sale today will bomb?
 Quoting: mimi

What are you talking about? There was not 30 year bond sale yesterday. You need to get a new 'trader' soon.
Anonymous Coward
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China
06/10/2009 01:21 PM
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Re: 30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?
This is an outrage. How dare the Chinese not buy these bonds?!! They should be on their hands and knees begging fo feed the endless African-Americanism that made downtown DC, Detroit and Harlem great! Thankless damn chinks.

(Interesting that the last word shows up verbatim, although the "n" word will not, on GLP). You white folks better figure out that the locals here in Shanghai aren't too impressed with your highly selective PC bullshit, and I am happy to point it out to them. I look forward to kicking all all the many, many, many hypocritical and parasitical asses in the future.
Anonymous Coward
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06/10/2009 01:21 PM
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Re: 30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?
Look at the 1 PM sharp spike up in the yield. That's a slap in the face to the 10 year.
mimi  (OP)

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06/10/2009 01:27 PM
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Re: 30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?
Only 46% of the bonds sold, 13 1/2 billion out of 30 B. Does anyone think the sale today will bomb?

What are you talking about? There was not 30 year bond sale yesterday. You need to get a new 'trader' soon.
 Quoting: all2human 629291



Ooops, told you I was a beginner! Because I was trading the 30 yr, I guess I thought he meant the 30 yr sale. Thanks for pointing that out. Sorry about that and hope I haven't misled anyone
Anonymous Coward
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06/10/2009 01:30 PM
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Re: 30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?
3 year bonds were yesterday,

10 years are today,

30 years are tommorrow

Morans.....
falldown

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06/10/2009 01:32 PM
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Re: 30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?
And there goes the market...-77, dropping nicely...
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falldown

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06/10/2009 01:33 PM
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Re: 30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?
Cross-link:

Thread: Treasury Auction = EPIC FAIL
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"He who does not understand your silence will probably not understand your words." ~Elbert Hubbard
mimi  (OP)

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06/10/2009 02:46 PM
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Re: 30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?
 Quoting: falldown



Thank you!
mr...bojangles

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06/10/2009 02:48 PM
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Re: 30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?
the way things are going...i`m surprised they sold any at all....
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Why is there a legend about the descent of Christ into hell? The Teacher addressed the lower strata of the astral world, saying: �Why, by cherishing earthly thoughts, bind oneself eternally to Earth?� And many revolted in spirit and rose higher.
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PatrikC325

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06/10/2009 02:52 PM
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Re: 30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?
I made 8 points then got out after lowering my stop once. I'm definately a 'little guy' and you're right about playing against the pros but today was actually my 5th time. So my modis operandi is: I started with under $400 and 1 short position and held back 1/2 my profits each time I went short. I've been placing my stop loss carefully and plan to never lose more than I put in. I don't need to make a million ( although I wouldn't mind!)...just a small enough to cover certain expenses.
 Quoting: mimi



Good way to play it! Stops are in..........
Milky Way Today
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06/10/2009 02:57 PM
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Re: 30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?
the way things are going...i`m surprised they sold any at all....
 Quoting: mr...bojangles



Sloppy? Yes, you look at the Tail, and it was long. 2.65times more bidders than the sale. Not a fail, I doubt yu will get any less than 200% more buyers. Tomorrow should be huge, 300% more buyers than seller, me thinks.

See, the government does not create money out of thin air,(as P.Shifter might have you believe), they have to sell Bonds, they create debt. Just like any one that want something and uses their credit card. You borrow it using future income streams.
Anonymous Coward
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06/10/2009 03:01 PM
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Re: 30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?
the way things are going...i`m surprised they sold any at all....



Sloppy? Yes, you look at the Tail, and it was long. 2.65times more bidders than the sale. Not a fail, I doubt yu will get any less than 200% more buyers. Tomorrow should be huge, 300% more buyers than seller, me thinks.

See, the government does not create money out of thin air,(as P.Shifter might have you believe), they have to sell Bonds, they create debt. Just like any one that want something and uses their credit card. You borrow it using future income streams.
 Quoting: Milky Way Today 697815


The government does create money out of thin air when they monetize the debt like they are doing right now.

They issue bonds out of one window and buy those bonds from the other window.

So one of the most important auction statistics is how much of the debt the FED itself bought either directly or through proxies or intermediaries.
Peter dribble
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06/10/2009 03:07 PM
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Re: 30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?
the way things are going...i`m surprised they sold any at all....



Sloppy? Yes, you look at the Tail, and it was long. 2.65times more bidders than the sale. Not a fail, I doubt yu will get any less than 200% more buyers. Tomorrow should be huge, 300% more buyers than seller, me thinks.

See, the government does not create money out of thin air,(as P.Shifter might have you believe), they have to sell Bonds, they create debt. Just like any one that want something and uses their credit card. You borrow it using future income streams.


The government does create money out of thin air when they monetize the debt like they are doing right now.

They issue bonds out of one window and buy those bonds from the other window.

So one of the most important auction statistics is how much of the debt the FED itself bought either directly or through proxies or intermediaries.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 699372


You are confusing the Treasury and the Fed. Lets see how much was purchased by Foreign banks. Or as you think, Fed proxies?
Anonymous Coward
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06/10/2009 03:13 PM
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Re: 30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?
the way things are going...i`m surprised they sold any at all....



Sloppy? Yes, you look at the Tail, and it was long. 2.65times more bidders than the sale. Not a fail, I doubt yu will get any less than 200% more buyers. Tomorrow should be huge, 300% more buyers than seller, me thinks.

See, the government does not create money out of thin air,(as P.Shifter might have you believe), they have to sell Bonds, they create debt. Just like any one that want something and uses their credit card. You borrow it using future income streams.


The government does create money out of thin air when they monetize the debt like they are doing right now.

They issue bonds out of one window and buy those bonds from the other window.

So one of the most important auction statistics is how much of the debt the FED itself bought either directly or through proxies or intermediaries.


You are confusing the Treasury and the Fed. Lets see how much was purchased by Foreign banks. Or as you think, Fed proxies?
 Quoting: Peter dribble 697815



I am not confusing the two. The FED is monetizing the debt under the moniker of "quantitative easing" which is a euphemism of printing money. Put simply, they are buying their own debt.

The sophisticated traders are watching for the proportion and degree of quantitative easing versus interest rates because effectively they are buying as much of their own debt as necessary to keep interest rates down and it isn't working.
Anonymous Coward
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06/10/2009 03:25 PM
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Re: 30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?
the way things are going...i`m surprised they sold any at all....



Sloppy? Yes, you look at the Tail, and it was long. 2.65times more bidders than the sale. Not a fail, I doubt yu will get any less than 200% more buyers. Tomorrow should be huge, 300% more buyers than seller, me thinks.

See, the government does not create money out of thin air,(as P.Shifter might have you believe), they have to sell Bonds, they create debt. Just like any one that want something and uses their credit card. You borrow it using future income streams.


The government does create money out of thin air when they monetize the debt like they are doing right now.

They issue bonds out of one window and buy those bonds from the other window.

So one of the most important auction statistics is how much of the debt the FED itself bought either directly or through proxies or intermediaries.


You are confusing the Treasury and the Fed. Lets see how much was purchased by Foreign banks. Or as you think, Fed proxies?



I am not confusing the two. The FED is monetizing the debt under the moniker of "quantitative easing" which is a euphemism of printing money. Put simply, they are buying their own debt.

The sophisticated traders are watching for the proportion and degree of quantitative easing versus interest rates because effectively they are buying as much of their own debt as necessary to keep interest rates down and it isn't working.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 699372


The Treasury (part of the US government executive branch) issues the debt (bonds), the Fed ("independent" central bank) has been buying some of the bonds.
Peter dribble
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06/10/2009 03:40 PM
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Re: 30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?
Who is Auctioning debt? The Fed? NO, it is the Treasury.
Do not confuse the Federal Reserve and the Treasury.

The fed has always purchased debt to add liquidity or with forced a buy back, "reverse repos" to drain reserves. The feds balance sheet is down about 300 billion since the high.

The Bond/note rates/prices are a function of the free market. Bond Vigilantes, or all the world's investors/foreign banks.
TrueProphet

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06/10/2009 03:45 PM
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Re: 30 yr T-Bond sale yesterday a bust?
This is an outrage. How dare the Chinese not buy these bonds?!! They should be on their hands and knees begging fo feed the endless African-Americanism that made downtown DC, Detroit and Harlem great! Thankless damn chinks.

(Interesting that the last word shows up verbatim, although the "n" word will not, on GLP). You white folks better figure out that the locals here in Shanghai aren't too impressed with your highly selective PC bullshit, and I am happy to point it out to them. I look forward to kicking all all the many, many, many hypocritical and parasitical asses in the future.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 686327


BRING IT ON SISTER





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