2010 Gold & Silver Thread

SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
closes in 7 hrs. 36 mins.
Jun 18, 2010 09:39 NY Time
Bid/Ask 1255.80 - 1256.80
Low/High 1242.50 - 1260.70
Change +10.60 +0.85%
30daychg +31.70 +2.59%
1yearchg +321.00 +34.34%
Charts...

It's been awhile since anyone has posted here, the market in metals is very very solid with a major move afoot..

To emphasize that point, as of 7am USA Eastern Time today, you can find the following slapped across headlines top front and center on BLOOMBERG...


Gold Rallying to $1,500

Investors are accumulating enough bullion to fill Switzerland’s vaults twice over as gold’s most- accurate forecasters say the longest rally in at least nine decades has further to go no matter what the economy holds.

front page in the moment....
[link to www.bloomberg.com]

direct to article...
[link to www.bloomberg.com]

SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
closes in 14 hrs. 12 mins.
Sep 08, 2010 03:03 NY Time
Bid/Ask 1259.80 - 1260.80
Low/High 1256.40 - 1261.50
Change +4.60 +0.37%
30daychg +58.60 +4.88%
1yearchg +263.10 +26.40%

[link to jsmineset.com]

Strapping In For The Big Move

Posted: Sep 07 2010 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: September 7, 2010 at 10:28 pm

Now that expectations for Gold at very significant prices are being offered by various rational sources, there is one thing you can be sure of. That one thing is $1650.

I am getting many emails asking how it is possible for the gold price to reach $1650 by early January.

I suspect these are far out in time, out of the money call option buyers that have done exactly what I have warned against. That is the using of options with an investment outlook.

Options are speculations that you never hold past the half way to expiry point, but instead switch to further out months if you believe in what you are doing.

Those that pre-offer gold cannot trade it at $1650 in January because of the short time versus the big moves. They clearly have never experienced the gold run in late 1979 and early 1980.

I will stand with what I have said for nearly 10 years. Gold will trade at $1650 on or before January 14th, 2011. That never made me want to buy expensive in time call options.

It has given me the courage to invest in gold without margin both in shares and bullion.

There is no doubt in my mind that $1650 will occur in early 2011. I have told you that Martin Armstrong, a master timer, feels that gold will trade higher and face a reaction in middle to late June of 2011.

The gold banks are throwing blocks to the price as we approach $1262. This is a major waste of time and money as gold is going to and through that price. The only argument is whether gold will hit $1650 in January 2011 or $3000-$5000 in June 2011.

Do you have any idea how much money has been made by those that bought gold modestly and in cash only on every reaction and sold into the rhino horns? It sounded stupid when I suggested this tactic for the wannabe traders.

I ran 22,000 long gold contracts in the New York and London markets in 1978 to 1980. Back then that was a big number. Today if I have a conviction, I simply play with everything I have and screw credit. The only credit I would use as a pro trader is options.

Those of you who follow me closely know that I am NOT kidding. This is the time when PRICE and TIME meet each other.

This is the time now as it was in 1979 that I went throttle to floor.

This is the time now as it was in 1979 that I am committing 100% of all the cash I can accumulate to what I believe in.
This is the time when all I have planned for is falling into place for the final and enormous pay day. However, I will not and you should not violate discipline, as I have always tried to teach you.

Option are never held past 50% of time left when you purchased them.

If I am wrong about gold at $1650 on or before 14/01/11 it only means gold will trade much higher than $1650 five months later.

As far as being long and wrong, that is something I definitely am not.

Respectfully,
Jim Sinclair

---------------------------------
Gold Entering A Virtuous Circle

September 6th, 2010 by Egon von Greyerz

Fundamental and technical factors for gold are now in total harmony and gold is entering a virtuous circle that will drive the price up at its fastest pace since this bull market started in 1999.

It is a fact that gold in US dollars (and many other currencies) has gone up 400% in eleven years or 16% per annum annualised.

It is a fact that the US dollar has declined 80% in value against gold since 1999.

It is a fact that the dollar and most other currencies have gone down 98-99% against gold since 1913 when the Federal Reserve Bank of New York was created.

It is also a fact that the Dow Jones (and many world stock markets) has declined over 80% against gold since 1999.

It is a fact that gold has made a new all time monthly closing high in dollars in August 2010.

Gold trend

We expect gold to start a substantial rise now which will continue for 5-10 months before any major correction. Gold’s technical picture is extremely strong with a continuous rising pattern of higher highs and higher lows with the steepness of the curve increasing. From much higher levels we are likely to see a correction that could last up to a year before the next rise which will last several years before we see a significant peak. Once gold has topped we do not expect the same kind of decline as after the 1980 peak since gold is likely to become part of a future reserve currency. At that point gold will be a solid but unexciting investment with very little upside potential. But that is likely to be a few years away.

In spite of a 5 times increase in the value of gold or an 80% decline against many currencies and stockmarkets in the last 11 years, most investors own no gold and still do not understand the importance and value of gold. In a world of constant money printing and credit creation leading to devaluing currencies and devaluing assets, gold reflects stability and is virtually the only store of value that cannot be destroyed by governments.

The average asset manager, fund manager, pension fund or private individual owns no physical gold and at best has a very small exposure to some precious metals stocks. And in spite of this gold has gone up over 400% in 11 years. How is that possible? For the simple reason with the relatively modest demand that we have seen in the last few years, there is not enough physical gold even at these levels. The increase in demand that we have seen has most probably been satisfied by central banks leasing or lending their gold to the bullion banks. Central banks supposedly own 30,000 tons of gold but unofficial estimates of their real holdings are at 15,000 tons or less.

More…

[link to goldswitzerland.com]

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Jesse Livermore knew how to make real money.

Seligman’s kid never played for peanuts

Seligman and Livermore never missed the big move. Don’t miss the big move in gold that is now underway!

Jesse Livermore – “They Miss The Big Movements.”

One of the greatest traders in the history of the world was Jesse Livermore. He was rumored to have died broke, that is patently false. Jim Sinclair’s father, Bert Seligman, (also one of the greatest traders in history) was business partners with Jesse Livermore, and Sinclair (in one of his KWN interviews) let listeners know that Jesse was an extraordinarily wealthy man, all the way to the end of his life. Fortunately his lessons from the markets were chronicled and are available for those who are willing to learn.

September 6, 2010

Jesse Livermore from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator:
"Speculation is far too exciting. Most people who speculate hound the brokerage offices… the ticker is always on their minds. They are so engrossed with the minor ups and downs, they miss the big movements."

I wanted to highlight that particular Jesse Livermore quote today because too many KWN listeners globally fall into this trap. Many have positioned themselves in the secular bull market in gold and yet with every break in the price of gold they begin to worry.

Having said that, here is a second quote from Livermore that readers and listeners should be aware of:
"The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, or for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor."
Those may seem like harsh words, but I can assure you that Jesse was trying to save people from themselves. In order to succeed at this game, you must be able to look at the big picture, always ignoring minor fluctuations or reactions in markets.

For those market veterans that trade I will leave you with this final thought for today, do not churn your accounts. Jesse Livermore:

"There are times when money can be made investing and speculating in stocks, but money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year. Only the foolhardy will try it. It just is not in the cards and cannot be done."

Remember, buy into bull markets as early as possible and hold. This is the only way to make the big money, don’t ever forget that.

Eric King
More…
[link to kingworldnews.com]

Can't say you weren't given a heads up, see above post.


SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
closes in 2 hrs. 25 mins.
Sep 14, 2010 14:49 NY Time
Bid/Ask 1272.30 - 1273.30
Low/High 1247.90 - 1275.70
Change +27.30 +2.19%
30daychg +56.90 +4.68%
1yearchg +267.20 +26.58%
Charts...

SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
closes in 8 hrs. 9 mins.
Sep 22, 2010 09:06 NY Time
Bid/Ask 1295.10 - 1296.10
Low/High 1287.10 - 1297.10
Change +8.30 +0.65%
30daychg +69.20 +5.64%
1yearchg +280.50 +27.65%
Charts...


Commerzbank says it “appears to be just a formality now” before gold overcomes the psychologically important $1,300-an-ounce level. The market has hit a fresh record near $1,293 after the Federal Open Market Committee late Tuesday did not announce any measures such as quantitative easing, but nevertheless “looked willing” to implement expansionary measures if needed. A weak dollar is still playing a key role in gold’s rally. “While profit-taking on the gold market is quite possible at any time given the very strong investor optimism and gold prices could consolidate, the set-back potential should be very limited at present as we see interest currently from India and from long-term oriented investors in using the weak phases for additional buying.”

SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
closes in 5 hrs. 13 mins.
Sep 28, 2010 12:02 NY Time
Bid/Ask 1306.00 - 1307.00
Low/High 1278.60 - 1308.70
Change +11.40 +0.88%
30daychg +67.90 +5.48%
1yearchg +315.50 +31.85%
Charts...


Gold Takes Out All Limit Orders To Hit Fresh All Time High $1,307. Next Stop: $1,500????

Gold Spikes After BOE's Posen Demands More QE, Wants To Buy Corporate Debt

BOE's Posen: I think further monetary easing should be undertaken in UK, subject to debate

BOE's Posen: If QE does not work, then time for further fiscal stimulus, corporate debt purchases

BOE's Posen: Additional monetary stimulus should begin in the form of addition QE gilt buying

Silver also VERY happy.

SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
closes in 5 hrs. 10 mins. 21 secs.
change since 19:00 London Time
Price: US$/Oz

Sep 28 2010 12:04PM NY Time
Bid/Ask 21.63 21.65
Low/High 21.05 21.69
Change +0.17 +0.79%
30DayChg +2.52 +13.19%
1YearChg +5.47 +33.85%
Charts

Silver is fucking skyrocketing right now!

Super-rich buy gold by the ton

The world's wealthiest people have responded to economic worries by buying gold by the bar by the ton.....

Published: 8:07AM BST 05 Oct 2010

[link to www.telegraph.co.uk]

[link to jsmineset.com]

Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan

snips...

...Gold.. There were several reasons given for the move higher into new record territory for gold with today’s strong showing; weakness in the Dollar, China buying gold for its reserves, ongoing currency wars, reflation trade on ideas that the Fed wants to induce inflation expectations, foreclosure gate, etc. Whatever the reason, (personally I think it is all of the above with a greater emphasis on Foreclosure gate and its ramifications) gold blew past its former peak and chart resistance level in a fashion that no doubt has left a lot of shorts scrambling for cover. I had expected it would take a drop below 77 in the USDX to take the metal through that former ceiling but all it took was a hint of additional weakness in the Dollar and $1,360 was left in the dust....


Silver was not to be outdone by its cousin and moved to within whiskers of the $24 level. It still looks on target to make a run at $25.

What is most encouraging is the fact that the HUI has now moved convincingly up and away from that pesky 520 level making a new all time high for the index. We’ve yet to get two CONSECUTIVE closes above that level. If we do, it should serve as a floor on any subsequent downside test and would give us the strong probability that the mining shares are ready to do some serious catch-up to the bullion price.

It’s not as if we have not been giving sufficient warning....

GOLD SPOT
closes in 19 hrs. 2 mins.
Nov 03, 2010 22:12 NY Time
Bid/Ask 1355.30 - 1356.30
Low/High 1325.00 - 1365.60
Change +6.50 +0.48%
30daychg +40.30 +3.06%
1yearchg +271.00 +24.99%


SILVER SPOT
Nov 3 2010 10:12PM NY Time
Bid/Ask 25.12 25.15 Low/High 23.94 25.20
Change +0.28 +1.13%
30DayChg +3.25 +14.86%
1YearChg +7.91 +45.96%
Charts

[link to harveyorgan.blogspot.com] Quantitative Easing II at$ 900 billion per 6 month or More Sheninigans at the comex Dear Ladies and Gentlemen:

Today's commentary will be short but will emphasize the huge QEII announced by the Fed at 2:15 pm today.

Today prior to the announcement, we had a raid by the bankers which makes no sense at all. The bankers needed to have gold falling with the huge amount of Quantitative Easing to be announced.

Before going into that, here are the numbers for today's trading...

-------------------------

[link to www.jsmineset.com]
Dear CIGAs,

The real number is not $600 billion in QE but $900 billion when you add present in place programs.

This is QE to infinity with the number larger and in the face of massive criticism .

It is only logical to assume that after the Fed’s announcement of QE to $900 billion by June 0f 2011 you would see intervention in the US dollar and Gold markets.

This is QE to infinity.

-------------------

[link to www.prnewswire.com]

Hagens Berman Sobol Shapiro: JP Morgan and HSBC Face RICO Charges in Silver Futures Class Action Lawsuit
Banks alleged to have used naked short-selling to rig market

NEW YORK, Nov. 3, 2010 - JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and HSBC Securities Inc. (NYSE: HBC) face charges of manipulating the market for silver futures and options in violation of federal commodities and racketeering laws, according to a new lawsuit filed Tuesday in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.

The suit – which alleges violation of the Commodity Exchange Act and the Racketeering Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act – alleges that the two banks colluded to manipulate the market for silver futures starting in the first half of 2008 by amassing huge short positions in silver futures contracts they had no intent to fill, but did so to force silver prices down to their benefit.

The suit was filed on behalf of Carl Loeb, an independent investor in silver futures and options, by Seattle-based Hagens Berman Sobol Shapiro LLP, a class-action and complex litigation firm.

"The practice of naked short selling has long been a serious issue on Wall Street," said Steve Berman, co-counsel and managing partner at Hagens Berman. "What we know about the scope and intent of JP Morgan and HSBC’s actions in this short-selling scheme dwarfs any other similar attempt to manipulate a commodities market."

According to the complaint, JP Morgan amassed a sizeable short position in silver futures and options in part through its March 2008 acquisition of investment bank Bear Stearns. By August 2008, JP Morgan and London-based HSBC controlled more than 85 percent of the commercial net short position in silver futures contracts....

SILVER SPOT MARKET

Nov 4 2010 9:27AM NY Time
Bid/Ask 25.49 25.51
Low/High 24.94 25.66
Change +0.65 +2.62%
30DayChg +2.62 +11.46%
1YearChg+ 8.05 +46.16%


GOLD SPOT MARKET
closes in 7 hrs. 48 mins.
Nov 04, 2010 09:27 NY Time
Bid/Ask 1378.40- 1379.40
Low/High 1353.10- 1382.20
Change +29.60 +2.19%
30daychg +37.90 +2.83%
1yearchg +286.60 +26.25%

yoohoo!

GOLD SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
closes in 5 hrs. 11 mins.
Nov 08, 2010 12:04 NY Time
Bid/Ask 1400.00 - 1401.00
Low/High 1386.30 - 1403.00
Change +5.90 +0.42%
30daychg +52.20 +3.88%
1yearchg +302.30 +27.56%
Charts...

We have a DOJI candlestick forming at the bottom of today's pullback in SILVER... see SLV 1 hour chart.

Time to buy if you can handle it.

------------

fyi...


[link to jsmineset.com]

Posted: Nov 12 2010

Jim,

All of the selling we are seeing across the entirety of the commodity complex is related to the news that China is hiking rates again. The fear is that this will cause a slowdown in the Chinese economy which will negatively impact demand for commodities across the board.

I am seeing every single commodity being sold regardless of any current fundamentals. It is even showing up in the soybean and corn markets which have very strong fundamentals. In other words, it is purely a function of hedge fund algorithms being tripped to sell because some downside technical levels have been violated.

The fact that it is occurring even with the Dollar showing weakness tells me that it is a pure money game right now so fundamentals are taking a back seat to the flow of money out of commodities today.

Gold would have to get down below $1,345 and stay there to give me any reason for concern on the charts. Even at that, it would still be okay although the chart picture would be a bit less positive. Only two closes below $1,320 would turn the chart bearish.

Best wishes from your pal,
Trader Dan

--------------------

Dear Jim,

In spite of G20 I find it hard to understand why gold is falling hard while QE2 is being ignited and EU problems are all over the place. What am I missing in this picture?

Respectfully yours,
CIGA Arlen

Dear Arlen,

1. Chinese price controls discussion.
2. Brazilian discussion of currency controls.
3. The general commodity market is bearish today.
4. All these items are being taken advantage of by flash commodity trading and gold banks.

All of this is temporary, but from now on all gold moves will come with unprecedented volatility.

All the best,
Jim

GOLD Spot Market IS CLOSED

opens in 21 hrs. 41 mins.
Dec 03, 2010 17:15 NY Time
Bid/Ask 1414.50 - 1415.50
Low/High 1414.50 - 1415.50 Change +29.60 +2.14%
30daychg +57.00 +4.20%
1yearchg +199.70 +16.44%


SILVER SPOT MARKET IS CLOSED

opens in 21 hrs. 36 mins. 39 secs.
Dec 4 2010 8:23PM NY Time
Bid/Ask 29.38 29.40
Low/High 28.60 29.43
Change +0.84 +2.94%
30DayChg +4.54 +18.28%
1YearChg +10.57 +56.19%

SILVER SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
closes in 19 hrs. 50 mins. 17 secs.

Dec 5 2010 9:24PM NY Time
Bid/Ask 29.68 29.70
Low/High 29.38 29.74
Change +0.30 +1.02%
30DayChg +2.92 +10.91%
1YearChg +11.21 +60.69%

[link to beforeitsnews.com]

Silver Market Update - December 5th, 2010
By Clive Maund

Sunday, December 05, 2010 12:15:19

Although silver's uptrend which began in August has been steep, and it is still substantially overbought after its "running correction" of recent weeks, there doesn't appear to be any sign of it ending in the near future. On the contrary, silver looks set to continue to rise steeply and the rate of advance may even accelerate.....

more and charts at link.

Huge News folks... kiss $20's Silver goodbye...

JPMorgan Caves And Unwinds Massive, Controversial Silver Position

[link to www.bloomberg.com]

...The decision was made to try to deflect public criticism of its dealings in silver, the FT said. The bank’s silver positions would from now on be “materially smaller” than in the past, according to the paper. Two calls and an e-mail to Jennifer Zuccarelli, a New York-based spokeswoman at JPMorgan, were not immediately answered outside of office hours...


SILVER SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
Dec 14 2010 1:28AM NY Time
Bid/Ask 29.83 29.87
Low/High 29.72 29.95
Change +0.28 +0.95%
30DayChg +3.79 +14.55%
1YearChg +12.44 +71.54%

smoke and mirrors being used to try to hide physical shortage.

any unwind by JPM is being pickup of by another member of the FED's PPT. Bet on it!

They have lost control, they don't have the metal to deliver to those now standing in line to take delivery.

5-4 no time for a countdown...