SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Departing sunspot region 3615 did not really live up to the hype when it faced Earth. It was a contributing factor in the major CME eruption and resulting G4 geomagnetic storm from an X1.1 solar flare but it was sunspot region 3614 who was the real star of that show. Sunspot region 3615 did produce a lot of flares but pretty much no note-worthy CMEs.


After a lull in activity the past few days, sunspot region 3615 did produce two strong solar flares today but both were impulsive. Both the M6.1 and M7 solar flare did not launch a coronal mass ejection into space. Any future eruptions from sunspot region 3615 have a very low chance of being earth-directed now that the region approaches the west limb.



[link to www.facebook.com (secure)]

March 25:

SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM--THE STRONGEST IN YEARS: As predicted, a CME struck Earth's magnetic field on March 24th (1437 UT). The impact opened a crack in our planet's magnetosphere and sparked a severe G4-class geomagnetic storm--the strongest geomagnetic storm since Sept. 2017.

The timing of the CME did *not* favor observers in Europe or the United States. Instead, New Zealand got the light show:

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

March 24:

STRONG X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Yesterday, the sun produced a solar flare so strong, it took two sunspots to make it. Sunspots AR3614 and AR3615 exploded in tandem on March 23rd (0130 UT), directing their fire straight at Earth. A National Solar Observatory telescope in Australia recorded the double blast:



The explosion from AR3614 (top) was so violent it seemed to rip the fabric of the sun, while AR3615 (bottom) followed very close behind with a less intense blast of its own. The same sequence was captured in this movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory.

While this may seem like an incredible coincidence, it probably didn't happen by chance. Researchers have long known that widely-spaced sunspots can explode in tandem. They're called "sympathetic solar flares." Occasionally, magnetic loops in the sun's corona fasten themselves to distant pairs of sunspots, allowing explosive instabilities to travel from one to the other. This has apparently happened to AR3614 and AR3615.

Some sympathetic flares are so much alike, they are considered to be twins. Yesterday's double-blast was not a perfect twin, but close enough. It shows that the two sunspots are linked, raising the possibility of more double-flares this weekend

Last Edited by Digital mix guy Spock on 03/29/2024 12:48 AM

From March 23–24, 2024, NOAA’s GOES satellites, and others operated by international partners, observed numerous flares erupt from the sun, including a powerful X-class solar flare. Additionally, a surge of extremely hot plasma, known as a coronal mass ejection (CME), raced toward Earth resulting in geomagnetic storms and auroras.

Image of a graph using the XRS instrument on GOES-16.
The GOES-16 Solar X-Ray Sensor, which is part of the satellite’s EXIS instrument, measures X-ray irradiance (i.e. brightness). This plot shows how the flux changes over the course of March 23rd. Sharp peaks correspond to solar flares of different classes. The data gap is caused by the Earth passing between the satellite and the sun.
This CME reached our planet at 10:37 a.m. EDT (1437 GMT) on Sunday, March 24, triggering a severe G4-class geomagnetic storm, marking the most potent solar storm since 2017. However, according to a Geomagnetic Storm Watch from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, there was no reason for the public to be alarmed.

[link to www.nesdis.noaa.gov (secure)]

NOAA's National Space Weather Service originally announced a "geomagnetic storm watch" on March 22, to come into effect on 23-25 March with possible moderate G2 storm conditions expected on March 24. So forecasters weren't completely caught off-guard, they however didn't expect a magnitude G4 storm.

It wasn't until 00:41 a.m. EDT ( 0441 GMT) on March 24 that NOAA uprated the warning to a severe G4 storm, which was after a stronger than forecasted G3 storm escalated to a G4 at 12:04 a.m. EDT (0404 GMT).

Graphic illustrating the G4 storm alert and shows high aurora activity in the northern polar regions illustrated by a bright red band across the globe.

U.S. space weather forecaster Tamitha Skov explained to Space.com in an email why the space weather community got it so wrong with this latest storm.

"These nearly invisible storms launch much more slowly than eruptive CMEs and are very difficult to observe leaving the sun's surface without specialized training," she said, adding that the stealth CMEs can also be "camouflaged" by other, more dense structures emanating from the sun, which makes them difficult to observe.

"This is why they are the cause of "problem geomagnetic storms" like the G4-level storm we are in now." Skov continued.

You can learn more about these stealthy solar storms in Skov's latest YouTube video where she describes the space weather event in more detail.

NOAA ranks geomagnetic storms on a scale running from G1, which could cause an increase in auroral activity around the poles and minor fluctuations in power supplies, up to G5, which includes extreme cases like the Carrington Event — a colossal solar storm that occurred September 1859, which disrupted telegraph services all over the world and triggered auroras so bright and powerful that they were visible as far south as the Bahamas.

[link to www.space.com (secure)]

Last Edited by Digital mix guy Spock on 03/29/2024 12:53 AM

Might this be a #solarstorm fizzle? Although this storm will continue for hours yet, whether it will contain southward magnetic field is the key for big #aurora shows. At Solar Orbiter (see the figure below), the storm has a weak "South-East-North" configuration, meaning the axis of its magnetic "solar slinky" core points mainly east with a slight tilt to the north. At Earth, early indications show this core may be oriented in a more "East-North-West" direction. If so, this does not bode well for generating aurora.

https://twitter.com/_/status/1772032839665791047

https://twitter.com/_/status/1772388038166949914

Last Edited by Digital mix guy Spock on 03/29/2024 01:01 AM

A significant geomagnetic solar storm is currently in progress, sparked by recent solar eruptions that have hurled plasma towards Earth.

This atmospheric phenomenon is set to illuminate skies with the Northern Lights, extending unusually far south to regions including Alabama and Northern California as early as Monday.

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Update
March 25, 2024 at 6:00 AM Eastern Time
The watch for a G3 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm, triggered by the CME that left the Sun on March 23, is still in place.

Despite this, there’s an observed weakening in conditions, reducing the likelihood of surpassing G3 intensity.

The solar wind conditions remain heightened, and even minor changes in the magnetic field could escalate the situation back to G3 severity.

As a result, forecasters will maintain the G3 alert through the end of the Universal Time (UT) day before adjusting the forecast to anticipate G1 (Minor) storm effects.

Space Weather Scale explanation
If you’re not already acquainted with it, the Geomagnetic K-index is a scale that quantifies the intensity of geomagnetic storms.


Within the NOAA Space Weather Scale, a system established to classify the intensity of space weather phenomena, there are five categories for geomagnetic storms, ranging from G1 (Minor) to G5 (Extreme).

Each category outlines specific possible effects on Earth’s infrastructure and natural environment.

Keep an eye on the Space Weather Prediction Center for more information as this geomagnetic storm, the largest since 2017, continues to dissipate.

**********

March 25, 2024 at 6:00 AM Eastern Time
The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) warns of an extended period of heightened geomagnetic activity, known as a Geomagnetic K-index of 5.

This event has potential impacts on power grids, satellite operations, and could make the Aurora visible at higher latitudes in the United States.

Space Weather Scale explanation
For those unfamiliar with the term, the Geomagnetic K-index is a scale used to measure the magnitude of geomagnetic storms.


The NOAA Space Weather Scale, a framework designed to categorize the severity of space weather events, details five levels of geomagnetic storms, G1 (Minor) to G5 (Extreme), each with distinct potential impacts on Earth’s infrastructure and environment.

Current storm downgraded to G2
The severity of the current event, classified as G2 with potential to increase again to the G4 level today, March 25, 2024. Geomagnetically induced currents could pose widespread challenges to voltage control systems.

This could potentially trigger protective measures that inadvertently disconnect crucial components of the power grid. Additionally, these currents may amplify in pipelines, further complicating the situation.

Understanding the implications
The implications of this increased geomagnetic activity are wide-ranging and can affect various aspects of our planet’s operations. The area most directly impacted is primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Here’s a breakdown of the potential impacts, as outlined by the SWPC:

Induced Currents: Weak power grid fluctuations may occur as a result of the geomagnetic disturbance. This can lead to minor disruptions in power supply, highlighting the sensitivity of our infrastructure to space weather events.
Spacecraft Operations: Satellites in space could face minor operational impacts. While not immediately threatening, these impacts could affect communication and navigation systems that rely on satellite technology.
Aurora Visibility: Perhaps the most visually stunning effect of this geomagnetic activity is the potential visibility of the Aurora, or Northern Lights, at high latitudes in the United States. Regions such as northern Michigan and Maine could witness this breathtaking natural phenomenon, offering a silver lining to the geomagnetic storm.


Extended geomagnetic storm warning — Stay alert
While the current geomagnetic activity poses some challenges, it also provides a unique opportunity to witness the beauty of the Aurora in parts of the U.S. where it’s rarely seen. It serves as a reminder of the interconnectedness of space and Earthly phenomena, emphasizing the importance of monitoring and preparing for space weather events.

As we continue to navigate the effects of this geomagnetic activity, staying informed and prepared is key. Whether it’s by keeping an eye on power grid operations or looking up into the night sky in hopes of catching a glimpse of the Aurora, understanding the implications of these space weather events is essential for both practical purposes and appreciating the natural wonders of our universe.

Visit the Space Weather Prediction Center for more information.

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March 24, 2024 at 6:00 PM Eastern Time
In an urgent communication dated March 24, 2024, the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) announced a significant geomagnetic disturbance, marking a severe escalation in space weather conditions.




The issued alert highlighted a Geomagnetic K-index of 8, teetering on 9, a threshold that was crossed at 1628 UTC, within the synoptic period of 1500-1800 UTC.

[link to www.earth.com (secure)]

This event has activated a severe (G4) warning on the NOAA Space Weather Scale, indicative of intense geomagnetic activity with potential wide-reaching impacts on both technology and natural phenomena.

Last Edited by Digital mix guy Spock on 03/29/2024 01:11 AM

VERY GOOD STUFF ON WWW.COASTTOCOASTAM.COM LAST NIGHT. IT TURNS
OUT THAT THE TWO BIG ONES LAST WEEK...ONE TRIGGERED THE OTHER.
ONE WAS NORTH AND ONE WAS SOUTH. THE FIRST ONE HIT THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE AND WENT BACK DOWN TO START THE OTHER. CALLED A UH,
'SYMPATHETIC'. HOPE WE CAN GET ONE FOR THE ECLIPSE SOLARTARDS!

# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3615 (S13W81,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the strongest flare of the period, an
M3.2/Sf (R1-Minor) flare at 29/0230 UTC. The region exhibited minor
growth in its trailer spot as it rotated towards the limb. The remaining
numbered active regions were mostly quiet an stable. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.


.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a chance for an X-class flares (R3/Strong),
over 30 Mar primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3615.
On 31 Mar, there is a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for
X-class flares as Region 3615 rotates further beyond the W limb. No R1
or greater events are likely 01 Apr.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 90 Issued at 0030Z on 30 Mar 2024
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Mar
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
3614 N17W88 223 0050 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
3615 S13W81 216 0960 Fkc 19 34 Beta-Gamma-Delta
3617 S13W51 186 0030 Cso 05 02 Beta
3619 N17W52 187 0050 Hsx 03 02 Alpha

ADIOS AR3615-


Still BGD-

[link to sosrff.tsu.ru]

I'll add the solar tracker video showing the 27th thru
today's (30th) with a couple of long-duration eruptions.
This A.M. solar eruption shows a significant one around
the 7:00 o'clock mark on the solar disk. wow!

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

Have a beautiful Easter weekend, solar babies!




The Oracle's Cookie

We don't call it Easter anymore, so happy resurrection day!!!!

the guest was 'dr. sky'.

WoW! Radical0Karens dictating the names of Christian holidays?
You gotta be really lame to parrot that! I KNOW you
don't embrace that trend, Wyatte! (Thank goodness!)


The Oracle's Cookie

Last Edited by The Oracle's Cookie on 03/30/2024 10:43 PM

M9.42...double-peak flare!

[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

Solar Demon movie:

[link to www.sidc.be (secure)]

SDO cutout movie:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com (secure)]

GOES SUVI:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Looks to be an LDE.... watch out for a proton storm.

Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 213
Issue Time: 2024 Mar 30 2224 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Mar 30 2101 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Mar 30 2116 UTC
End Time: 2024 Mar 30 2215 UTC
X-ray Class: M9.4
Location: S13W88
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.


Latest SoHO C2 image:

[link to soho.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

X-Ray flux is still at M4 level almost 2 hours later.

GOES X-rays:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Radio blackouts centered near the Hawaiian Islands.

D-Layer Absorption model:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Also, a violent filament ejection in the far NE subsequent to the M9 event is clearly visible on the SUVI images.

Quite the LDE!

Three hours later.... still at M1.

Nice Long Duration Event. I don't see any sign of a big fast ICME launched, though. Very unusual for a flare of this long a time period. Perhaps the little green men are gobbling up the protons so they won't disturb Mr. Musk's projects.

Maybe 3615 is just reloading for an even bigger blast.

Hello, Simple27! I hope you have a joyful Resurrection Day.

I've been laid low by fevers for the past 3 days, but I'm slowly regaining my strength. I pray you are doing well.

I hope you feel better quickly my friend.

Happy Easter!

SOLAR RADIATION STORM WATCH: Departing sunspot AR3615 erupted again today, March 30th (2116 UT), producing an M9.4-class solar flare only percentage points below category X. This flare will very likely produce a solar radiation storm in the hours ahead. At its current location near the sun's western limb, the sunspot is magnetically well-connected to Earth via the Parker Spiral. Protons and electrons produced by the blast will naturally spiral back to Earth and rain down upon our planet's atmosphere. Stay tuned!

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

Felt it deserved an updated screen shot

https://imgur.com/EiOoaFX

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at high levels. Region 3615 (S13W94,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced a long-duration M9.4 flare (R2-Moderate)
at 30/2116 UTC, the strongest of the period. Further coronagraph imagery
is needed to analyze an potential CMEs associated with the event. New
Region 3624 (N16E50, Bxo/beta) was numbered. The other two numbered
active regions were stable or in gradual decay. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for an X-class flares
(R3/Strong), over 31 Mar primarily due to the flare potential of Region
3615 currently rotating around the W limb. R1 or greater events become
unlikely over 01-02 Apr as the few sunspots remaining on the visible
disk are relatively simple and stable.

M9.4 Flare (SDO AIA304a)-



Filament Launch in NE Quadrant (seen shortly after the M9 peak)=

Today the Parker Solar Probe began its 19th Perihelion...

PSP homepage:
[link to parkersolarprobe.jhuapl.edu (secure)]

Here's a recent report on a published study of Parker's findings about CMEs....

Parker Solar Probe Was Blasted by Coronal Mass Ejections 28 Times in 4 Years
(<50%)
For the study, PSP collected direct measurements of 32 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) between October 2018 and August 2022 and distances from the Sun ranging between 0.23 and 0.83 astronomical units (AU), with 1 AU being the distance between the Earth and the Sun, or approximately 150 million kilometers (93 million miles). Of the 32 measurements, four were discarded due to gaps in the data, leaving 28 CMEs successfully measured by PSP. The study’s objectives were to identify various aspects of CMEs, specifically pertaining to how they change as they travel farther from the Sun, also known as radial distance. So, what were the most significant results from this study?

Dr. Salman tells Universe Today, “A few results that I would like to highlight are that we observed the internal CME magnetic structure to become more complex with radial distance. We found the CME magnetic field strength to decrease at a lower rate than previous studies. We also saw that the expansion of the CME is important in the formation of the compression region ahead of it and the internal magnetic field has an influence on the short-scale fluctuations we find within the compression region.”

“PSP is so important for us to advance our current understanding of CME evolution and space weather,” Dr. Salman tells Universe Today. “The questions of interest for space weather are will a CME impact Earth and whether it will have a southward field component to interact with the northward magnetic field of Earth. Our modeling frameworks depend on an initial characterization of the CME closer to the Sun (within 20 solar radii) based on which the models project the CME parameters when it impacts Earth.”

Dr. Salman continues, “The initial characterization is made based on CME remote-sensing imaging. What PSP is doing is providing direct measurements of CMEs in the initial phases of propagation. Adding to this are the widespread radial observations of PSP to make our statistical approximations more robust. This is how PSP is contributing to develop a more accurate picture of the CME propagation and evolution from closer to the Sun to Earth.”

Full Report with a half-dozen videos embedded:

[link to www.universetoday.com (secure)]

Link to original study--

A Survey of Coronal Mass Ejections Measured In Situ by Parker Solar Probe During 2018-2022
[link to arxiv.org (secure)]

WHEN YOU THINK YOU'VE SEEN IT ALL.... LOOK AGAIN.

I don't ever recall seeing a long duration event which didn't involve a large CME... it's almost a 'given' assumption. But this M9.42 LDE seems to have only produced a small wispy ejection of little note. The length of the event must be from sustained x-rays emanating from the post-flare arcade (loops). Truthfully, the arcade didn't look too impressive to me either. This is why I love watching these events, they never seem confined to following the script of our expectations. SOL remains a mysterious object which we can only pretend to comprehend.

I always like to stress that X-ray flares and mass ejections are two entirely different events. Sometimes they are obviously related, often times not so much. Sometimes the CME precedes the flare and other times the flare causes the CME. Large filament CMEs may have no x-ray footprint at all, or a mediocre C-flare can unleash a large mass ejection cloud unexpectedly. It's much like quantum physics--just when you try to pin it down, it changes into something entirely different. It's designed to be a mystery, unpredictable and chaotic.

Forgive my preamble, but here's the SEEDS movie from the M9.4 LDE CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

Note you can also see the filament ejection to the NE--much denser and maybe even faster than the near X-class event. No protons because the CME unleashes the protons, not the x-rays alone.

Latest SoHO C3 image:

[link to soho.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

Holly Rhyno Horn LDE

EVERYBODY AT SURFACE STILL HAVE A ENLIGHTNED BULB MIND

AND THE MOON IS HALF SHINING STILL HIGH 2

8 DAYS TO THE X ECLIPSE EVENT . EARTH ALLIANCE FIGHHTING CERN GONNA BE CRAZY FRIENDS

LOVE YOU ALL SOLAR CREW



Last Edited by Cosmo888 on 03/31/2024 01:58 AM

Maybe something hitting earth from this event is why I am so oddly very dizzy and lightheaded this morning.

Thanks sun watchers!