H5N1 - ProMed - tracking migratory bird routes - possible path for pandemic??

AVIAN INFLUENZA - EURASIA (17): H5N1
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[1]
Date: Tue 18 Oct 2005
From: ProMED-mail <[email protected]>
Source: Reuters alertnet, 18 Oct 2005 [edited]
< [link to www.alertnet.org]


Scientists say bird flu cases back migration theory
-----------------------------------------------
The discovery of bird flu in Romania and Turkey supports the theory
the deadly virus is being spread by migrating wildfowl, scientists
said on Tuesday [18 Oct 2005].

Ever since the discovery in July 2005 that H5N1 bird flu, which has
killed more than 60 people in Asia, had spread to birds in Siberia,
experts have feared that migratory wildfowl would bring the virus westwards.

"These latest cases in Romania and Turkey have reinforced that
theory," Alex Thiermann, President of the International Animal Health
Code at the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) in Paris, told Reuters.

H5N1 is particularly deadly for chickens and can wipe out a flock
within hours. But wild water-birds such as ducks and geese can harbor
the virus for long periods, most of the time showing no symptoms or
becoming ill.

Whilst any bird can in theory become infected, wildfowl are the
primary carriers, and many species fly south from Siberia seeking
warmer climes at the onset of winter, scientists say.

"The existence of known migration flyways of several birds species
connecting South East Asia, Siberia and Europe shows a possibility of
the introduction of the H5N1 virus to both eastern and western
Europe," the OIE said this week in a report on the outbreak in Russia.

It said surveillance should be increased in the Caspian Sea region,
which was recognized as "a significant wintering area for water birds
of various origins (Europe and western Asia) and can be considered as
a so-called biological ´hub´."

What scares experts most is that the virus could mutate and pass
easily between humans, possibly sparking a pandemic to rival the
killer global flu outbreaks of the last century.

The spread of bird flu in parts of Asia and earlier this year [2005]
from Russia to Kazakhstan has also been linked to cross-border trade
in live poultry, either legal or illegal.

Thiermann said the widespread practice of cock-fighting in Asia,
where it was big business, may have played a role there.

But trade was an unlikely source of the latest cases.

"The role of migratory birds carrying the Asian H5N1 influenza virus
under certain conditions to other parts of the world seems now more
likely," the OIE said after the latest test results from Romania and Turkey.

The OIE and U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) have
pinpointed the Caspian and Black Sea regions, as well as the Balkans,
as a "gateway to central Europe for the virus."

Bird migration routes also ran across Azerbaijan, Iran, Iraq,
Georgia, Ukraine and some Mediterranean countries to Africa, where
outbreaks were possible.

Didier Houssin, the French government official in charge of the
country´s bird flu defense, told Le Monde newspaper that migrating
birds were the most likely source of transmission, using flyways
between the Black Sea region and Mediterranean.

"This axis raises fears that pockets will emerge in the Middle East
and then in Africa. It then becomes a very serious threat. One can
imagine the virus becoming endemic in Africa as it is in several
Asian countries," Houssin said.

"We´d be confronted with great difficulties in controlling the
disease, and, in a few months, with the threat of potentially
infected birds flying back up to western Europe from Africa."

[Byline: David Evans]

--
ProMED-mail
<[email protected]>

[Pablo Nart has kindly drawn our attention to a recent map of bird
migratory routes and countries where avian influenza has been reported:
< [link to news.bbc.co.uk]

Further reading:

1. Zdenek Hubalek. An annotated checklist of pathogenic
microorganisms associated with migratory birds. J Wildlife diseases
2004; 40: 639-659.
2. FAO´s (special report): Potential risk of Highly Pathogenic Avian
Influenza (HPAI) spreading through wild water bird migration, 1 Sep 2005,
< [link to www.fao.org]
- Mod.AS]

******
[2]
Date: Tue 18 Oct 2005
From: ProMED-mail <[email protected]>
Source: European Commission website, 18 Oct 2005 [edited]
< [link to europa.eu.int]


Avian influenza - response to outbreaks in 2005, Romania/Turkey:
Chronology of main events, updated 18 Oct 2005
-----------------------------------------------
The following data, compiled from the above document, might help in
reviewing the recent events around the Black Sea in an orderly manner.

Fri 7 Oct 2005: The Romanian authorities notify to the Commission and
to the OIE an outbreak of avian influenza on their territory
(positive serology).

Sat 8 Oct 2005: The Turkish authorities notify to the Commission and
to the OIE an outbreak of avian influenza on their territory. The
virus has been identified as an influenza virus type A, strain H5.

Sun 9 Oct 2005: An EU expert mission is dispatched to Romania to
assist the authorities in the control of the outbreak of avian
influenza. The team consists of 3 experts. They will arrive in
Romania on Mon 10 Oct 2005 and will bring with them all necessary
laboratory reagents requested by the Romanian authorities.

Mon 10 Oct 2005: The Commission adopts an urgent safeguard Decision
for Turkey, suspending imports of birds and products for which Turkey
is authorized (birds other than poultry and untreated feathers) and
which present a direct threat to animal health in Europe.

Tue 11 Oct 2005: The Commission informs the European Parliament´s
AGRI Committee about the outbreaks in Romania and Turkey.

Wed 12 Oct 2005: A Decision is put for a vote to the Committee to
prolong the measures adopted on Monday for Turkey for a further 6
months. The proposal was adopted by the Committee.

Thu 13 Oct 2005: The Commission expert experts team in Romania has
found avian influenza virus type H5 in 2 samples from a chicken and a
duck (laboratory results with reagents of AI CRL, Community Reference
Laboratory for avian influenza in Weybridge, UK).

The strain of bird flu found in Turkey has been identified as the
highly pathogenic H5N1 Asia strain by the AI CRL.

The same measures that have been adopted for Turkey are now proposed
by the Commission for Romania. The Committee is asked to vote on a
draft proposal suspending all imports of avian species and their
products from Romania. The draft safeguard Decision endorsed by the
Committee is adopted by the Commission the same afternoon.

Fri 14 Oct 2005: Romania informs the Commission of a 2nd outbreak in
domestic poultry and the fact that the AI virus H5 has also been
identified in swans found dead in the Danube delta.

Sat 15 Oct 2005: The AI CRL at Weybridge, UK confirms that the virus
in Romania is the highly pathogenic H5N1 Asia strain.

Sun 16 Oct 2005: An EU expert mission is dispatched to Turkey to
assist the authorities with the control of the outbreak of avian
influenza. The team will consist of Dr. E. Stougaard (former CVO
Denmark) and Dr. P. Houdart (Belgian Federal Food-chain safety Agency).

A team of experts is also dispatched to Bulgaria to see with the
authorities how best to prepare for possible introduction in Bulgaria
of the virus. The team will consist of Dr. G. Cattoli (Istituto
Zooprofilattico Sperimentale, Italy) and Dr. C. Poetzsch (Institute
of Epidemiology, Germany).

Mon 17 Oct 2005: The Commission is made aware of AI suspicion in a
turkey on the island of Innusis (Chios nomos), Greece.

Tue 18 Oct 2005: UK Presidency request AI is considered as part of an
Extraordinary General Affairs Council (GAERC) meeting, Luxembourg.

--
ProMED-mail
<[email protected]>

******
[3]
Date: Tue 18 Oct 2005
From: A-Lan Banks <[email protected]>
Source: Xinhuannet, China, 18 Oct 2005 [edited]
< [link to news.xinhuanet.com]


Viet Nam reports new bird flu outbreak
---------------------------------------------
Viet Nam has just seen the death of some 110 ducks in southern Bac
Lieu province, a local official told Xinhua on Tuesday [18 Oct 2005].

"According to tests by the Regional Veterinary Center in Can Tho
city, the fowl were infected with a bird flu virus strain," said
Nguyen Phuc Tai, director of the Provincial Veterinary Department.

The 110 out of over 300 ducks raised by a local farmer in Hong Dan
district died last week, he said, adding that the whole flock, which
had yet to be vaccinated against bird flu, was culled Tuesday [18 Oct
2005] morning.

Bac Lieu has vaccinated more than 600 000 fowl out of its poultry
population of over 1.1 million.

The Vietnamese government has recently decided to spend 700 billion
Vietnamese dong (VND) (USD 44.3 million) on vaccinating fowl. Viet
Nam is importing more bird flu vaccines from China so as to complete
the 1st batch of vaccination by late next month [November 2005].

All fowl will have been vaccinated by late March 2007. To date, 37
out of 64 cities and provinces have vaccinated over 54 million fowl.

Viet Nam has detected 22 bird flu outbreaks in 10 provinces since
April 2005, which have killed and led to the forced culling of nearly
14 400 fowl, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.

To deal with possible bird flu outbreaks among humans in the coming
time, the government will upgrade hospitals and ensure sufficient
reserves of anti-virus drugs with an estimated cost of some 6870
billion VND (nearly USD 434.8 million), according to delegates to an
anti-bird flu meeting hosted by the Government Office on Monday [17 Oct 2005].

Last week [2nd week October 2005], foreign donors pledged to disburse
USD 6.8 million in the next 6 months to meet short-term needs of Viet
Nam´s animal breeding and health care sectors.

Up to 91 Vietnamese people have been infected with bird flu since the
disease started to break out in the country in late 2003. Of them, 41
have died.

--
ProMED-mail
<[email protected]>

******
[4]
Date: Tue 18 Oct 2005
From: Mary Marshall <[email protected]>
Source: The Nation, Bangkok, 18 Oct 2005 [edited]
< [link to nationmultimedia.com]


Bird flu: Lab tests reveal virus in local sparrows, pigeons
-----------------------------------------------
Officials order high-risk poultry farms to be sprayed as migration
season nears. In an alarming development, amid frenzied attempts by
the Department of Livestock Development (DLD) to control the spread
of the deadly H5N1 strain of avian influenza, laboratory tests have
revealed the virus has already spread to such migratory birds as
sparrows, pigeons and mynas.

Chawal Talhikorn, deputy director-general of the Department of
National Parks, said the lab tests, conducted by Mahidol University´s
Veterinary Department, had found 18 out of 11 705 samples collected
from wild birds nationwide between June and 7 Oct 2005 had been
infected with the H5N1 virus.

Chawal said most positive cases had been collected from
infection-prone provinces, including Ratchaburi and Kanchanaburi. He
said his department would collaborate closely with DLD and Public
Health Ministry officials in increased efforts to control the spread
of the virus, a possible mutation of which, it is feared, might jump
the species barrier and kill countless humans.

The laboratory findings have deepened fears of a new outbreak of
avian influenza at Thai poultry farms because the Eurasian tree
sparrow (some specimens of which were found to be infected) is a very
common species in the country.

However, Rattapan Pattana-rangsan, a veterinarian at Mahidol
University, cautioned the public against undue panic, saying the
chance for the disease to be spread widely by sparrows was slim.

Khunying Nattanon Taweesin, deputy permanent secretary of the Bangkok
Metropolitan Administration, said she had ordered all district
offices across the capital to monitor pigeon populations closely. The
carcasses of dead birds are to be sent for lab tests, she explained.

With the cold season approaching, Thai authorities are bracing for a
potential resurgence of the deadly epidemic brought on by migratory birds.

Sumeth Chailertwanitchkul, Nakhon Sawan´s deputy provincial governor,
spearheaded a disinfecting team yesterday [17 Oct 2005] to the
province´s largest swamp, Beung Borapetch, where migratory birds from
Siberia normally come to winter.

Also yesterday [17 Oct 2005], Agricultural Minister Khunying Sudarat
Keyuraphan headed a group of senior ministry officials on an
inspection tour of infected areas in Nakhon Pathom and Suphan Buri.
Sudarat ordered all poultry farms in the localities to be disinfected.

Yukol Limleamthong, director general of the DLD, said there had been
no new outbreak of the virus, adding chicken meat available at
markets was safe for consumption.

--
ProMED-mail
<[email protected]>

[The recent developments on the doorstep of Europe have brought the
H5N1 issue into the very focus of world media and public concern, but
it is the epizootic in Southeastern Asia which should be mainly
targeted for control and ultimately eradication efforts if a global
pandemic is to be prevented. Sporadic cases of human infection might
occur anywhere; the evolvement of a recombinant which might spread
among humans might be expected in Southeast Asia if the virus is
allowed to continue its march among the dense and close avian,
porcine and human populations there. Therefore, the events in Viet
Nam, and similar ones in Indonesia and other countries in the region,
are of particular concern. - Mod.AS]

[see also:
Avian influenza - Asia (41): Indonesia, poultry 20051011.2956
Avian influenza - Eastern Asia (65): Viet Nam 20050706.1913
Avian influenza - Eastern Asia (68): Thailand 20050711.1966
Avian influenza - Eastern Asia (73): Thailand, OIE 20050716.2031
Avian influenza - Eastern Asia (75): Indonesia, pigs 20050724.2140
Avian influenza - Eastern Asia (77): Viet Nam 20050728.2189
Avian influenza - Eastern Asia (80): Viet Nam, vac... 20050803.2252
Avian influenza - worldwide: preventive measures 20050930.2861
Avian influenza - Europe (09): EU, preventive measures 20050922.2802
Avian influenza - Europe (15): EU, prevention 20051015.3006
Avian influenza - Eurasia (08): Russia, OIE 20051015.3004
Avian influenza - Eurasia (05): Turkey, H5N1 20051013.2989
Avian influenza - Eurasia (06): H5N1 20051014.2994
Avian influenza - Eurasia (09): Romania, OIE 20051015.3007
Avian influenza - Eurasia (10): Turkey, OIE 20051015.3008
Avian influenza - Eurasia (11): Romania, H5N1 20051015.3009
Avian influenza - Eurasia (12): Romania, H5N1 20051016.3016
Avian influenza - Eurasia (13): H5N1 20051016.3018
Avian influenza - Eurasia (15): Romania, H5N1 conf... 20051017.3036
Avian influenza - Eurasia (16): Romania (Tulcea), H5N1 20051018.3038]
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