Hurricane Sandy - All Models show a US East-Coast Impact of Epic Proportions! 6.5 Quake in Costa Rica & 5.4 Caymans

I don't see how they can be related.

It's just that the same thing (electromagnetic disturbances) causes both of them.

Bump

TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ABOUT
4 HOURS AGO INDICATED 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68 KT AND
SFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 55 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 986 MB. SINCE THEN...DEEP CONVECTION
WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -90C HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY ENCIRCLED
THE CENTER OF SANDY AND NOAA BUOY 42058 RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 49 KT WITH A GUST TO 64 KT MORE THAN 160 N MI
EAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO 60 KT.

SANDY IS MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH NOW...OR 010/12 KT. THE
FORECAST SCENARIO AND THE FORECAST TRACK REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH
48-72 HOURS. SANDY SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS OR MERGES WITH A POTENT MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH THAT IS SLIDING EASTWARD. AFTER 72 HR...SOUTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND DIGGING TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO TURN THE CYCLONE
NORTHEASTWARD. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE MORE
NORTH AND WEST AFTER 72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS
BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IS BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15...AND THE
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR UP UNTIL SANDY MAKES LANDFALL ON
JAMAICA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...LAND INTERACTION WITH
JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA...COMBINED WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING.
HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING THAT TYPICALLY OCCURS UNDER SUCH
NEGATIVE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO STRONG
BAROCLINIC INTERACTION/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN SHOWING A 60-KT INTENSITY AFTER 36 HOURS
AND THE CYCLONE BECOMING POST-TROPICAL BY 120 HOURS. HOWEVER...
THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR BOTH THE INTENSITY AND
THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE AFTER 48-72 HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN THE AMOUNT OF BAROCLINIC INTERACTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 16.3N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 17.9N 76.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR JAMAICA
24H 25/0600Z 20.6N 76.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND EASTERN CUBA
36H 25/1800Z 23.3N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 26/0600Z 25.7N 76.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 28.2N 76.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 31.0N 73.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 33.4N 70.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Morning ECMWF model solution still indicates a big threat to the Mid-ATL/Northeast however GFS is still not fully onboard

[link to sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net]


[link to twitter.com]

Nearly all GFS ensemble members are showing Sandy recurving back into New England.

Start thinking about preps.

[link to icons-ak.wunderground.com]

Building an eyewall on the east quad

[link to tropic.ssec.wisc.edu]

Very strong earthquake in Costa Rica

A magnitude 6.6 earthquake at a depth of 35km (USGS) struck the same area where the M7.6 hit a month ago.

The values given by USGS differs a lot from the ones that gives Ovsicori, the geological survey from Costa Rica, saying it was a magnitude 5.8 at a depth of 6km.

We’ll wait to see if they change their values.

There are reports of fallen objects and broken windows in the zone of La Cruz, Guanacaste and Sámara but, luckily, there’s no heavy damage or injured people.

Update- USGS lowered the magnitude from 6.6 to 6.5 but at a more dangerous depth of 20km.

Update- Some areas in San Ramon in Alajuela and Guanacaste were without electricity.

[link to earthquake-report.com]

Tropical Storm Watch issued for southeast Florida

[link to www.facebook.com]

Latest EURO slams Sandy into NYC taking the worst part of the storm - the right quad.

[link to moe.met.fsu.edu]

it's gonna be an epic storm for the fish

all models have this storm going out to sea

Joe Bastardi

120 hour ecmwf from [link to Weatherbell.com] developed by @RyanMaue

[link to twitter.com]

ECMWF : 946mb hurricane hit Asbury Park 06z Oct 30.Monster snows wpa into wva.If track right, it is NYC storm surge threat. over phl TUEam

ECMWF within 150 miles of HSE at 120, sub 950 mb, lashing outer banks with hurricane force winds. EC 150 miles wnw of GFS Sun night

sixth run in a row, ECMWF turns storm nnw Friday and is all the way over at 78.5 27.5 Friday night, 100 w of GFS

[link to twitter.com]

I guess you haven't seen the Euro or NOGAPS

[link to moe.met.fsu.edu]

[link to moe.met.fsu.edu]

What pressure is it when its hits NYC?

On a scale of DOOM 1 to 10, with 10 being orgasmic, how would you rate this?

Last I heard it was forecast to be around 940mb.

A borderline Cat 4 if it was a full blown warm-core hurricane.

However, it will be an extra-tropical cyclone at the time which makes the wind field expand and wind strength drop near the core.

So, Euro is showing wind speeds of a solid Cat 1 when makes landfall around NYC.

However, the Cat 1 wind field could extend from Pittsburgh to Washington DC to Maine with 2 to 4 feet of snow in the mountains.

Massive power outages. Also significant flooding on Long Island.

Doom factor around 8.

ECMWF after landfall, 850-mb temps quite low as air ingested into circulation.

[link to twitter.com]

Oh god you really get my doom juices flowing.

Its like doom foreplay.

Keep at it.

Even Brazilian model is joining ECMWF with Sandy hit on northeast coast. ECMWF as bad as it gets if correct.

[link to twitter.com]

Thanks, DB!

Did not know this how do they trigger quakes

Typhoons can make plates slip
[link to www.nytimes.com (secure)]

I love this place better than College


Thanks Doorbert

Its a quick change in atmospheric pressure. That in turn causes an impulse force along fault lines. The sudden force then snaps the fault causing the quake. Seen in many times in the Pacific and Carib. In fact the VA 5.9 quake last year was triggered by Irene.

There is a web site that talks alot about this. I am waiting for his update on this quake. I'll post it once it comes out.

Get your milk and bread while you can... Tropical Storm Sandy could slam NJ as nor'easter with hurricane-force winds

[link to www.nj.com]

Tropical Storm Sandy is close to reaching hurricane strength.

Maximum sustained winds are now 70 mph.

Sandy is expected to be a hurricane by the time it reaches Jamaica later today and eastern Cuba tonight.

[link to www.facebook.com]

Jamaica braces for Sandy; U.S. on storm's horizon?

[link to www.cbsnews.com]

Bryan Norcross' Official Blog

Wow... what an extraordinarily unusual scenario. What seemed like a fluke of an idea - a hurricane-like system hitting the northeastern U.S. - is gaining credibility. Originally the European model was on its own with the spectacular but somewhat bizarre idea that Sandy would be injected with jet stream energy and curve back toward New England as a stunningly strong storm. Now one model after the other, including the ensembles, are favoring a swing back toward the East Coast after the storm goes by Cape Hatteras.

[link to www.wunderground.com]

Eyewall forming

[link to www.nrlmry.navy.mil]

Last Edited by DoorBert on 10/24/2012 09:51 AM