LOL, the Nasrallah is still hiding for 6 years in his bunker. He will be lucky to survive the Sunni Spring in Syria (most of Hebollah is committed in Syria in desperate attempt to save Bashar Assad). No wonder because "Nasrallah" in Russian means "
she took a shit". It's true, hahaah.
1) Hezbollah may have more rockets than Hamas, but most of them still need LAUNCHERS --- in 2006, Israel destroyed Hezbollah's longer-range rockets in the
fist hour of the war.
2) By 2006, IDF was simply too preoccupied with TERROR policing activities during 2nd Intifada --- and as such woefully unprepared for bigger war. The invaluiable, old-school training for infantry and mechanized units were slashed dramatically for years for budgetary reasons. The Merkava tank project was all but halted. The Trophy system delayed, also for budgetary reasons. Most people in Israel cared more about the Peace Process and dealing with Palestinian terror than Lebanon. Remember, in 2000 Ehud Barak pulled Israel out of South Lebanon completely, so it was considered to be a non-issue anymore.
2) What's worse, in 2006, Israel was led by a corrupt Leftie loser like
Ehud Olmert as PM and by Amir Peretz as Defense Minister, despite not having military background (Peretz was a union boss, lol!). Olmert clearly did NOT want to have a war, was dragged into only because of 2 kidnapped Israeli soldiers, had moronic idea of tactics, was too slow making decisions, then even when he listened to his commanders and made right decisions, he then pussied out and changed his mind like 10 different times.... sending (older) Mekava tanks into suicide missions, into volleys of Russian Kornet & Metis-M fire in wooded, mountainous area where Merkava wasn't even suited for..... Finally when Olmert & Peretz listerned to their more progessional military advisers in the last day of the war, Olmert's incompetent Foreign Minister, Tsipi Livni under pressure from George W. Bush and Europeans agreed to a cease-fire ---- thus defeating the entire point of the 11th hour Israeli gains!
3) So despite the pretty much WORST-case scenario of the 2nd Lebanon War... Only about 50 civilians died in Israel, 40 of them Israeli ARABS in the North. Also those ill-planned, suicidal Olmert tank missions resulted in about 100 IDF casualties ---- as compared to 800 Hezbollah fighters. That's a robust
8:1 kill ratio in favour of the admittedly ill-prepared IDF fighting on Hezbollah's home turf, mind you. Initially Hezbollah was so embarassed they claimed only 250 deaths, then the figure rose to 500 all while trying to hide their elite fighters deaths in bunkers, tunnels, treating them in Syrian hospitals under fake names ----> but now years later we knonw the full extent of their losses. Plus another 600-700 Lebanese civilians died. BILLIONS of dollars in damage was caused to Lebanese territory.
Lebanese Prime Minister at the time was CRYING on TV. Hell, even the normally-trash talking Hassan Nasrallah admitted after the war that had he known how harash IDF response would be, he would have
NOT ordered the kidnapping of the 2 IDF soldiers that kick-started the war. So if that's a "defeat" for Israel, then I don't know what people expect from the tiny Israel. Yes, 6-Day War in 1967 and the Bekaa Valley Turkey Shoot in 1982 were far more convincing victories for IDF --- but they are considered to be ALL-TIME Historic great military victories, so it's not exactly fair to expect that from IDF or any other military that kind of stunning success every time.
4) While far from ideal, still the 2nd lebanese war provided unprecedended 6+ years of
quiet for North Israel. Before that war, Hezbollah terrorists used to attack every 2-3 months.
5) Now Nasrallah boasts about increased rocket stockpile. But he's forgetting that Israel has also made HUGE advancements & overhauls of their military doctrine. Even 2009 castlead showed impressive efficienty --- 700 Hamas fighters killed vs. only 10 IDF, including 3 soldiers by friendly fire errant tank shell, and another one killed in Israel by mortar. So that's
70:1 kill ratio,
100:1 ratio if you take out IDF friendly fire accident. Unprecedented by 21st century urban-warfare standards! And IDF is far more capable in 2012-2013 than it was in 2008/2009.
6) More imporantly, now Israel is going to be led by Netanyahu, Lieberman and new Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon. No more Left-Wingers who try to play nice with terrorists and beg UN's permission for everything. So if Nasrallah targets civilians in Tel Aviv, Haifa, Jerusalem, expect a few more unpleasant surprises might visit upon them and their bosses in Teheran (newer Stuxnet, EMP, low-yield Neutron bombs, who's to say...)
7) As mentioned, almost all casualties for IDF came from poorly-planned Merkava raids. Those older Merkava 2 and Merkava 3 tanks were very strong, were managed to take a lot of hits and out of 50 hit, all but 5 eventually returned to service after repair. However, against veritable volleys advanced Russian ATGM Kornet & Metis-M, no tank in the world can withstand for long. Now, after the war, Israel has re-instated the Merkava and Namer APC program, and the two dynamic tank-protections systems, Rafael's Trophy and IMI's Iron Fist ----> both have shown to be able to defeat even most advanced Kornet and RPG-29. And both instantly pinpoint the location of the Hezbollah teams that fired the incoming ATGM --- that's a game changer for Hezbollah, LOL.
8) Another area where IDF is light years ahead of 2006 is strategy. In 2006, they thought they could just do some bombing and be done with it -- ala US against Saddam in 1991. IDF was so unprepared, they didn't even manage to properly supply soldiers with food & water when they did enter Lebanon at the very end of the war right before Cease-fire took hold. In 2012-2013, that's been rectified, the next Lebanon war will likely include lightening quick, devastatingly powerful incursions under advanced artillery cover and drones, lots of drones. You saw just how surgical IDF has gotten last week against Gaza terror infrastructure.
9)
Barak-8, Iron Dome, Magic Wand, Patriot-Advanced-Capability (PAC), Arrow 2 and eventually
Arrow-3 systems. While Israel doesn't have unlimited oil-wealth of other M.E nations, and as such has to progress slowly on developing SAM defense solutions.... suffice it to say, IDF has some newer toys. While only 1/3 of full arial coverage has been achieved in such very short period of time, Iron Dome has already showed unexpected ability to shoot down large, expensive rockets like Fajr-5 and lighter version of Zelzal. That's a game-changer for Hezbolah because most of its arnenal is smaller, shorter-range Grads.
10) In short, all this Islamic bluster is just pathetic attempt to cover up for Iran's embarassment at their main off-site Weapons facility bombed in Sudan a month ago, and they their darling jihadi groups in Gaza Hamas & Islamic Jihad, PRC in whose missile capabilities Iran invested years & billions of dollars.... go up in flames in just a few days, along with their top military commanders like Ja'abari, Raed al-Atar, et al. Not nearly as easy to replace, trust & replenish as it sounds -- especially now that Obama & Clinton have made pledge to Israel to maintain tighter supervision & control of Gaza tunnels.
If I am Nasrallah, I better worry about
Assad losing 500+ tanks, IFV, APC and now even SAM & air bases. And about Lebanese economy.
His desperation is palpable.
