Posted Today, 11:12


latitude, on 29 December 2012 - 10:54 , said:


I have read through the last few pages of the thread. A couple of questions:

1. The SSW is still currently only a forecast and not something that will definately happen? (whether it propagates or not)

2. When is SSW forecast to happen, around the 4th Jan? Has this date been consistant or has it been continually pushed back or forward.


It's very likely to happen as the stratosphere is nowhere near as variable as the troposphere, so is much easier to forecast. 7 days out (the time when the SSW is expected to happen) is still a very reliable time-frame for the stratosphere.
At the moment zonal winds expected to just about still be positive at midday on the 4th of Jan, so I would say the SSW will happen on the 2nd half of the 4th of Jan or the 5th of Jan. The date has been pushed back very slightly, it's almost negligible. [link to forum.netweather.tv]