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Hostages make great bargaining chips
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 36188613 Do you think they care? They'll be running it over as they scream by in the first wave on their way to Seoul!
Nobody really talks about a ground force offensive with NK, but I agree with you. With the amount of infantry they have it would be a human wave going against SK.
And while all of this is going on, let's not forget Iran. Or our actions (or possible ones) against Iran. Iran has been far too quiet lately, and quiet with "enemies" often means they're up to something.
Good point.
If you look at the military stats, North Korea outnumbers South Korea in every branch of the military.
If North Korea was pushed back and started to lose the war they could activate their 8.2 million reserves and 5,000 tanks and finish the job on the ground.
In 1950 the Chinese 'human wave' attack only consisted of about 80,000 troops (still a lot by any measure), but if you could imagine a human wave attack of over 1 million (let alone 8.2 million) you get to see the dilemma for the South Koreans and U.S.
It puts the U.S in a position where it risks Chinese or Russian intervention by sending multiple aircraft carriers and hundreds of thousands of troops and heavy armory into China and Russia's backyard. This also means that the U.S would have to pull its carriers and heavy armor from strategically important areas protecting other allies (i.e, Israel, Persian Gulf, etc...)
If the U.S decides to revoke its 'first use' policy of nuclear weapons and deal with the NK threat by nuking its way to victory, that invites a series of variables that involve some pretty ugly miscalculations (not to mention full Japanese rearmament and acquisition of an ICBM capability that would have far-reaching global implications).
So, in summary........
If North Korea uses its FULL military might it would probably overwhelm the relatively small SK-US force and win, unless the U.S is happy to send a quarter of its military on to China's and Russia's doorstep and possibly start WW3.
