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The 8 Phases of an American Ebola Outbreak

by John Galt (johngaltfla.com)
[link to johngaltfla.com]

August 18, 2014 22:00 ET


The bell curve pictured above (NOTE: go to Link to see chart)is not a quantitative measurement of current events and only acts a partial estimation of how an outbreak of Ebola within the United States would occur in various phases, some of short duration, others much longer. The estimations below are those of the author after researching the current outbreak and lack of coordinated world wide response to the threat. The color code is to indicate severity of each phase with red obviously indicating the most severe period while the primary and latter stages indicate latency to a true “gray” area where the conclusion of the disaster is indeterminate.

Comment: Pretty good read.

-Information on virus mutation-

My theory about this virus is that the longer it infects a population the greater the chance that it could mutate and create a separate strain of the virus and keep the original strain going along with producing a separate strain. Based off of the below reading it appears that my theory is true. This is what has occurred in the Congo with two separate strains showing up in the Congo; while, the original hybrid strain is still active. (I hope this makes sense to people. (Example would be a tomato plant growing and the plant branches off to create more tomatoes.)

This is the reason why people can catch this original strain of the ebola virus.

- Snip-

Development of viruses with new antigenic determinants by either type of recombination may allow viruses to infect and cause disease in previously immune hosts.

Genetic Change in Viruses

Viruses are continuously changing as a result of genetic selection. They undergo subtle genetic changes through mutation and major genetic changes through recombination. Mutation occurs when an error is incorporated in the viral genome. Recombination occurs when coinfecting viruses exchange genetic information, creating a novel virus.

Mutations

Mutation Rates and Outcomes

The mutation rates of DNA viruses approximate those of eukaryotic cells, yielding in theory one mutant virus in several hundred to many thousand genome copies. RNA viruses have much higher mutation rates, perhaps one mutation per virus genome copy. Mutations can be deleterious, neutral, or occasionally favorable. Only mutations that do not interfere with essential virus functions can persist in a virus population.

Phenotypic Variation by Mutations

Mutations can produce viruses with new antigenic determinants. The appearance of an antigenically novel virus through mutation is called antigenic drift. Antigenically altered viruses may be able to cause disease in previously resistant or immune hosts.

Vaccine Strains from Mutations

Mutations can produce viruses with a reduced pathogenicity, altered host range, or altered target cell specificity but with intact antigenicity. Such viruses can sometimes be used as vaccine strains.

Recombination

Recombination involves the exchange of genetic material between two related viruses during coinfection of a host cell.

Recombination by Independent Assortment

Recombination by independent assortment can occur among viruses with segmented genomes. Genes that reside on different pieces of nucleic acid are randomly assorted. This can result in the generation of viruses with new antigenic determinants and new host ranges. Development of viruses with new antigenic determinants through independent assortment is called antigenic shift.

Recombination of Incompletely Linked Genes

Genes that reside on the same piece of nucleic acid may undergo recombination. The closer two genes are together, the rarer is recombination between them (partial linkage).

Phenotypic Variation from Recombination

Development of viruses with new antigenic determinants by either type of recombination may allow viruses to infect and cause disease in previously immune hosts.

Vaccines through Recombination

Vaccine strains of viruses can be used to create recombinant viruses that carry extra genes coding for a specific immunogen. During viral vaccination, the replicating virus will express the specific immunogen. Specific antibody production will be stimulated, and the host will be protected from the immunogen as well as from the vaccine virus. ( [link to www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov]

A couple weeks ago the "official" WHO data modeled as a 5th Order Polynomial, and 8/29 was the date when the curves took off.

I could post the curves if someone has an Excel file ftp site.

By the way, this is standard curve fitting with R-squared values approaching the perfect R^2 = 1.00.

This is not an R-Nought forecast. It's a standard curve fit forecast.

Update the effen title..... Geez! unpin

Retweeted by A biologist


Spencer Fox &#8207;@FoxandtheFlu · 2m
New genomic analysis on Ebola from Sierra Leone. [link to www.sciencemag.org] …

A biologist &#8207;@influenza_bio · 3m
We could easily see more than 20k new #Ebola cases over next 2 months in Liberia alone if growth continues at current rates.

Ebola Virus Outbreak Could Hit 20,000 Within Nine Months, Warns WHO

[link to online.wsj.com]

Behind a paywall.


Edit: Should point out that the likely hood that it is already at these numbers is very likely based on this thread.

Wait 'till it get's here...

It won't need to be that bad here before the gangs riot. Doesn't take much to trip them off.

Ebola virus has mutated during course of outbreak

The Ebola virus sweeping through West Africa has mutated repeatedly during the current outbreak, a fact that could hinder diagnosis and treatment of the devastating disease, according to scientists who have genetically sequenced the virus in scores of victims.

[link to www.washingtonpost.com]

comment: nothing new to those in this thread but hitting mainstream now. Also could be why we are see so many false negatives?

The 8 Phases of an American Ebola Outbreak

by John Galt (johngaltfla.com)
[link to johngaltfla.com]

August 18, 2014 22:00 ET


The bell curve pictured above (NOTE: go to Link to see chart)is not a quantitative measurement of current events and only acts a partial estimation of how an outbreak of Ebola within the United States would occur in various phases, some of short duration, others much longer. The estimations below are those of the author after researching the current outbreak and lack of coordinated world wide response to the threat. The color code is to indicate severity of each phase with red obviously indicating the most severe period while the primary and latter stages indicate latency to a true “gray” area where the conclusion of the disaster is indeterminate.

Comment: Pretty good read.

yes wait for all these false negative to become positive

in a few more weeks.

Dr. Niman's interview last night, of which I was able to listen to only the first segment, is already posted on his website.

Recommended. He fleshes out his concerns about the tallies and public statements regarding the DRC outbreak of Ebola.

[link to www.recombinomics.com] At the top of the page is the August 27 mp3 link.

The 8 Phases of an American Ebola Outbreak

by John Galt (johngaltfla.com)
[link to johngaltfla.com]

August 18, 2014 22:00 ET


The bell curve pictured above (NOTE: go to Link to see chart)is not a quantitative measurement of current events and only acts a partial estimation of how an outbreak of Ebola within the United States would occur in various phases, some of short duration, others much longer. The estimations below are those of the author after researching the current outbreak and lack of coordinated world wide response to the threat. The color code is to indicate severity of each phase with red obviously indicating the most severe period while the primary and latter stages indicate latency to a true “gray” area where the conclusion of the disaster is indeterminate.

Comment: Pretty good read.

Here is a post of yours from back on April 23rd. Is this still correct with a longer time frame?
----------------------------
I will caveat this just as I have previous releases of data from my model - I am not a professional epidemiologist or public health professional, and I make no claim to any such title or certification.

These numbers are the output of a very basic model which I composed myself, based upon my self-study of the epidemiology of past hemorrhagic fevers in west Africa, with tweaks and adjustments of my own personal composition (which constitute new and unique work) to accommodate an urban environment, and to extrapolate for certain other anticipated factors.
These posted probabilities are in no way authoritative, and should be considered a "best guess" only.

Here are the probabilities of unchecked infection, based upon data current to, and computations begun on Wednesday 4/23/2014-0001hrs/GMT, based upon a method of travel times and frequencies of airline flights to various cities, and also including certain assumed volumes of "mixed maritime" traffic between north Africa, southern Europe, and the eastern Mediteranean coasts. (Those destinations beyond the Mediteranean are modeled for air travel only - no effort has been made to address rail and/or OTR, nor any mixed modal traffic as a means of propagation)

57% in Spain within 10 days
63% in France within 14
89% in Greece within 15 days
91% in Riyadh/Saudi within 16 days
74% in Britain within 18 days
77% in Libya within 20 days
41% in Turkey within 21 days
21% in Russia within 24 days
33% in the US within 25 days
51% in Egypt within 28 days
14% in China within 35 days

These are the current probabilities of unchecked (uncontained) infection within the specified time periods, based upon my model, and the data publicly available to me at the time the simulation was run on 4/23/2014. by BattlesightZero on 04/22/2014 19:38