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| 12:11 AM | ||
| Users Online Now: 1,863 (Who's On?) | Visitors Today: 17,654 | |
| Pageviews Today: 22,802 | Threads Today: 9 | Posts Today: 101 |
| 12:11 AM | ||
Woke up with anxiety about the next TECH bubble, please read. | |
| TheToolMan Offer Upgrade  User ID: 71489331  United States02/22/2016 05:06 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation |  I’ve worked in tech my entire life, over 20+ years. I’ve seen the wonders of technology and how it stimulates the economy, jobs, cities, etc. I had a front row seat to the dotcom bubble where we raised over $40m and spent over $50m and watch it all just disappear in a few weeks. There was a tech recession until it started popping again with social networks, mobile and big data in 2006. Today, we sit upon a HUGE tech bubble with Unicorns. Uber, dropbox, Zenefits and many others. These are companies that have raised well over a half a billion of dollars. Heck, Uber has raised over $8 billion. Here is a full list of Unicorns on Fortune: [link to fortune.com] please visit the list and just see how STUPID most these companies are… They are not businesses!!! I’ve spent a lot of time within many of these companies. The numbers are completely false like the 2000 dotcom days. The revenue is not there, not even close. The free spirit of FED driven money to banks which flows this money to these tech companies is closing. The closing is freaking out these unicorns and they are trying to rein in the expenses but are having a hard time. They are beginning, like Zenefits, to lay off people. What is HARD with a techbubble bursting is these people make a TON of stupid money. They have leveraged themselves into million dollar homes, $100k Telsa cars, $25k a year daycare for their kids, etc. These are millions of leveraged people. People making $200k a year and they have $5k left over at the end of the year. The new poor…. These people are unable to cope in a survival environment… 2016/17, we are about to experience dotcom 3.0… and it will not be pretty "My mom said the only reason men are alive is for lawn care and vehicle maintenance." |
| CanadaIn NIC User ID: 63520998  Nicaragua02/22/2016 05:09 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| TheToolMan (OP) User ID: 71489331 United States02/22/2016 05:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Most you can't short. They are private companies. They either go public or try to find more money. Uber just took another $250m. Take it and hold it and hope you weather the coming global storm... "My mom said the only reason men are alive is for lawn care and vehicle maintenance." |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 69091240  Canada02/22/2016 05:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | normally I do not delight in this sort of thing but, being that right now I'm waiting to buy a house I'll be happy to see the tech bubble burst and all of these morons lose their shit. sorry, it's just the fact of my bad attitude at the mo' |
| TheToolMan (OP) User ID: 71489331 United States02/22/2016 05:13 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Tableau, lost more than 55% Box, lost about 50% Jive Software, lost more than 50% Twitter was at $69, not it is $18.31. So many others, I'm just lazy to post them... But you get the point... Last Edited by TheToolMan on 02/22/2016 05:17 PM "My mom said the only reason men are alive is for lawn care and vehicle maintenance." |
| TheToolMan (OP) User ID: 71489331 United States02/22/2016 05:14 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | normally I do not delight in this sort of thing but, being that right now I'm waiting to buy a house I'll be happy to see the tech bubble burst and all of these morons lose their shit. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 69091240 sorry, it's just the fact of my bad attitude at the mo' Yes, my wife wants to purchase some real estate. I told her to wait, the bubble it about to get pricked. Last Edited by TheToolMan on 02/22/2016 05:14 PM "My mom said the only reason men are alive is for lawn care and vehicle maintenance." |
| Colorqube User ID: 26417724  Ireland02/22/2016 05:21 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 47881833 United States02/22/2016 05:21 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I’ve spent a lot of time within many of these companies. The numbers are completely false like the 2000 dotcom days. The revenue is not there, not even close. The free spirit of FED driven money to banks which flows this money to these tech companies is closing. The closing is freaking out these unicorns and they are trying to rein in the expenses but are having a hard time. They are beginning, like Zenefits, to lay off people. Quoting: TheToolMan A lot of fraud in advertising models now. Last time I checked (two years ago), online advertising fraud was running around $20 billion per year. I expect several of these companies to fold up in 2016-2017. I interviewed for another position in January. So basically, it's a tiny startup which has a couple hundred million in funding. Their plan is to buy other companies for the next 3-5 years, IPO, and cash out. I've seen that scam before, I was part of a similar company during DotCom era. Close to your story. We IPO'ed at $60 million, we bought a couple smaller companies to tweak our income numbers to make it look like we were growing, and then blew the rest of the wad on advertising which failed. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 47881833 United States02/22/2016 05:23 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Tableau, lost more than 55% Quoting: TheToolMan Box, lost about 50% Jive Software, lost more than 50% Twitter was at $69, not it is $18.31. So many others, I'm just lazy to post them... But you get the point... I expect twitter to fail at some point and become an acquisition target, it's an extremely good matchup with Apple. |
| PACNWGUY-01 User ID: 70621256 United States02/22/2016 05:27 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Its amazing how people can put value on something digital and not know it is a perishable commodity just like a warehouse full of bananas. Whereas a guy buys a warehouse full of shovels and they will last for a hundred years and never lose their exchange/barter value. Another thing that has not lost value is tanned leather. I was told that it has held its value as well as gold for centuries. There will be a time in the not so distant future when they will hunt Liberals with DOGS. Democrats vote for what benefits them while Republicans vote for what benefits the country. |
| IRCO User ID: 49145280 United States02/22/2016 05:27 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| -Haun- User ID: 67105399 United States02/22/2016 05:28 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| TheToolMan (OP) User ID: 71489331 United States02/22/2016 05:28 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I’ve spent a lot of time within many of these companies. The numbers are completely false like the 2000 dotcom days. The revenue is not there, not even close. The free spirit of FED driven money to banks which flows this money to these tech companies is closing. The closing is freaking out these unicorns and they are trying to rein in the expenses but are having a hard time. They are beginning, like Zenefits, to lay off people. Quoting: TheToolMan A lot of fraud in advertising models now. Last time I checked (two years ago), online advertising fraud was running around $20 billion per year. I expect several of these companies to fold up in 2016-2017. I interviewed for another position in January. So basically, it's a tiny startup which has a couple hundred million in funding. Their plan is to buy other companies for the next 3-5 years, IPO, and cash out. I've seen that scam before, I was part of a similar company during DotCom era. Close to your story. We IPO'ed at $60 million, we bought a couple smaller companies to tweak our income numbers to make it look like we were growing, and then blew the rest of the wad on advertising which failed. Agree, the whole advertising on Google, Facebook, LinkedIn, Pinterest, Twitter is all a scam. A quick look of your bounce rate statistic in your google analytics tell's you everything you need to know. That 99.8% of your clicks don't even visit your site for less than a half a second. Further research shows they come from click farms in the asia pacific rim and the middle east. All fake... "My mom said the only reason men are alive is for lawn care and vehicle maintenance." |
| TheToolMan (OP) User ID: 71489331 United States02/22/2016 05:30 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| TheToolMan (OP) User ID: 71489331 United States02/22/2016 05:30 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Tableau, lost more than 55% Quoting: TheToolMan Box, lost about 50% Jive Software, lost more than 50% Twitter was at $69, not it is $18.31. So many others, I'm just lazy to post them... But you get the point... I expect twitter to fail at some point and become an acquisition target, it's an extremely good matchup with Apple. Twitter is dead. "My mom said the only reason men are alive is for lawn care and vehicle maintenance." |
| PACNWGUY-01 User ID: 70621256 United States02/22/2016 05:30 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | There will be a time in the not so distant future when they will hunt Liberals with DOGS. Democrats vote for what benefits them while Republicans vote for what benefits the country. |
| TheToolMan (OP) User ID: 71489331 United States02/22/2016 05:31 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I had friends who lost fortunes on their stock options. One worked at Palm and forgo his salary in exchange for options and lost over $2m. He worked his ass off for them and in a day it was gone. Quoting: PACNWGUY-01 I had a million shares in my dotcom with two other founders. Got zero...  "My mom said the only reason men are alive is for lawn care and vehicle maintenance." |
| TheToolMan (OP) User ID: 71489331 United States02/22/2016 05:34 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Just east of Redmond WA, there are two new communities going up that is housing for the techies at Microsoft. 2,700 sqf, 2 story homes. 1,700 on the bottom and 1000 on top. You have 5 feet from your kitchen to the fence line. Same with your neighbor. Wake up and look out the window and there is your neighbor as close as your wife in bed.... And how much as these matchboxes??? $825,000.... How much to build them???? $350k to $450k Last Edited by TheToolMan on 02/22/2016 05:35 PM "My mom said the only reason men are alive is for lawn care and vehicle maintenance." |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 47881833 United States02/22/2016 05:35 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I’ve spent a lot of time within many of these companies. The numbers are completely false like the 2000 dotcom days. The revenue is not there, not even close. The free spirit of FED driven money to banks which flows this money to these tech companies is closing. The closing is freaking out these unicorns and they are trying to rein in the expenses but are having a hard time. They are beginning, like Zenefits, to lay off people. Quoting: TheToolMan A lot of fraud in advertising models now. Last time I checked (two years ago), online advertising fraud was running around $20 billion per year. I expect several of these companies to fold up in 2016-2017. I interviewed for another position in January. So basically, it's a tiny startup which has a couple hundred million in funding. Their plan is to buy other companies for the next 3-5 years, IPO, and cash out. I've seen that scam before, I was part of a similar company during DotCom era. Close to your story. We IPO'ed at $60 million, we bought a couple smaller companies to tweak our income numbers to make it look like we were growing, and then blew the rest of the wad on advertising which failed. Agree, the whole advertising on Google, Facebook, LinkedIn, Pinterest, Twitter is all a scam. A quick look of your bounce rate statistic in your google analytics tell's you everything you need to know. That 99.8% of your clicks don't even visit your site for less than a half a second. Further research shows they come from click farms in the asia pacific rim and the middle east. All fake... There's a whole ecology behind the clicks now, with many companies most people never heard of. I have a friend who was doing analytics at one, they did a 50% layoff about six months ago (had less than 100 employees). I'm guessing there will be a shakeout and consolidation in data mining/big data/analytics stuff over the next 3-4 years, I'd expect 50-100 of these companies to fail or be bought out at very low price. My dotcom startup IPO at $35/share, we peaked at $60 but the final bankruptcy price was $5/share. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 70023397 United States02/22/2016 05:35 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| TheToolMan (OP) User ID: 71489331 United States02/22/2016 05:36 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I’ve spent a lot of time within many of these companies. The numbers are completely false like the 2000 dotcom days. The revenue is not there, not even close. The free spirit of FED driven money to banks which flows this money to these tech companies is closing. The closing is freaking out these unicorns and they are trying to rein in the expenses but are having a hard time. They are beginning, like Zenefits, to lay off people. Quoting: TheToolMan A lot of fraud in advertising models now. Last time I checked (two years ago), online advertising fraud was running around $20 billion per year. I expect several of these companies to fold up in 2016-2017. I interviewed for another position in January. So basically, it's a tiny startup which has a couple hundred million in funding. Their plan is to buy other companies for the next 3-5 years, IPO, and cash out. I've seen that scam before, I was part of a similar company during DotCom era. Close to your story. We IPO'ed at $60 million, we bought a couple smaller companies to tweak our income numbers to make it look like we were growing, and then blew the rest of the wad on advertising which failed. Agree, the whole advertising on Google, Facebook, LinkedIn, Pinterest, Twitter is all a scam. A quick look of your bounce rate statistic in your google analytics tell's you everything you need to know. That 99.8% of your clicks don't even visit your site for less than a half a second. Further research shows they come from click farms in the asia pacific rim and the middle east. All fake... There's a whole ecology behind the clicks now, with many companies most people never heard of. I have a friend who was doing analytics at one, they did a 50% layoff about six months ago (had less than 100 employees). I'm guessing there will be a shakeout and consolidation in data mining/big data/analytics stuff over the next 3-4 years, I'd expect 50-100 of these companies to fail or be bought out at very low price. My dotcom startup IPO at $35/share, we peaked at $60 but the final bankruptcy price was $5/share. Yeah, there is a local internet marketing company here called MOZ that I hope dies soon. "My mom said the only reason men are alive is for lawn care and vehicle maintenance." |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 71502157  Belgium02/22/2016 05:39 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 47881833 United States02/22/2016 05:39 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I had friends who lost fortunes on their stock options. One worked at Palm and forgo his salary in exchange for options and lost over $2m. He worked his ass off for them and in a day it was gone. Quoting: PACNWGUY-01 I had a million shares in my dotcom with two other founders. Got zero... :yousucker: I had 13,000 shares and cashed out $50K worth. I sold as fast as I vested. After it was over, I calculated the maximum I could have made and I got close to 90%. my paper worth went from 0 to almost $1 million in 18 months. |
| nikki nikita User ID: 71071950 United States02/22/2016 05:42 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | click farms. I suspected they existed. glad to know they have a name. I noticed awhile back that there were lots of shared computers in the pacific rim, operating 24/7, exactly, they are click farms. I love that term. Last Edited by nikki nikita on 02/22/2016 05:42 PM |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 39834772 United States02/22/2016 05:43 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| TheToolMan (OP) User ID: 71489331 United States02/22/2016 05:43 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | i don't think the bubble will burst yet. Virtual reality is the next big thing in 2016. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71502157 Agree, VR and AR is going to be Huuuguggggeee, but it is an adoption thing that will take time. I'm actually doing Unity3D development for VR/AR and having a great time doing it. We'll all want to live in the holodeck... "My mom said the only reason men are alive is for lawn care and vehicle maintenance." |
| TheToolMan (OP) User ID: 71489331 United States02/22/2016 05:44 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | click farms. I suspected they existed. glad to know they have a name. I noticed awhile back that there were lots of shared computers in the pacific rim, operating 24/7, exactly, they are click farms. I love that term. Here you go. Read about it... Click Farms: [link to www.theguardian.com] How much do you like courgettes? According to one Facebook page devoted to them, hundreds of people find them delightful enough to click the "like" button – even with dozens of other pages about courgettes to choose from. There's just one problem: the liking was fake, done by a team of low-paid workers in Dhaka, Bangladesh, whose boss demanded just $15 per thousand "likes" at his "click farm". Workers punching the keys might be on a three-shift system, and be paid as little as $120 a year. The ease with which a humble vegetable could win approval calls into question the basis on which many modern companies measure success online – through Facebook likes, YouTube video views and Twitter followers. Channel 4's Dispatches programme will on Monday reveal the extent to which click farms risk eroding user confidence in what had looked like an objective measure of social online approval. Last Edited by TheToolMan on 02/22/2016 05:44 PM "My mom said the only reason men are alive is for lawn care and vehicle maintenance." |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 67942176 United States02/22/2016 05:47 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The New Tech UPRISING is based around tge MAKER movement. It is self funded grassroots common sense. Trump is sponsoring Maker Faires in Several countries. PlasmaSphere holographic Displays. Homemade Gigawatt power supplies based around new Nvidia Jetson Tx1 supercomputer device board |
| Larry D. Croc User ID: 70736097 United States02/22/2016 05:47 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Tableau, lost more than 55% Quoting: TheToolMan Box, lost about 50% Jive Software, lost more than 50% Twitter was at $69, not it is $18.31. So many others, I'm just lazy to post them... But you get the point... Very astute post, thanks for taking the time to share it. "Socialism only works in two places: Heaven where they don't need it and hell, where they already have it." Ronald Reagan The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so." Ronald Reagan |
| TheToolMan (OP) User ID: 71489331 United States02/22/2016 05:50 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The tech millennium generation has zero concept of a bubble. Zero. They think staring at their phones through Facebook, Snapchat, Twitters and others is a business. That the ads that they do not touch are just a distraction and have zero idea how money is actually made. Their parents have given them everything along with college loan debt... These tech millenniums are going to be in a world of hurt when this bubble pops... "My mom said the only reason men are alive is for lawn care and vehicle maintenance." |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 70528386 United States02/22/2016 05:53 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Zenefits is toast. The customer base will be gone in 12 months max, if the states don't shut them down first. The technology platform will either be sold to an ACA/marketplace player (Towers or maybe a carrier like UHC with Exchange woes) or ADP will buy it out so long as no one comes to them looking for their $580 million. To your point: house of cards from day one, and so many bought into it. It's not the start ups, but the AI VCs who throw wads at them without thoroughly checking the books. |
