Mayor Nagin better be getting those evacuation buses ready, because from the latest computer models and forecasts, Fay could soon become a hurricane when it enters the Gulf of Mexico. And it's movement is expected to slow to a near crawl, when some computer models have this drenching storm right over the city of New Orleans.

From the latest computer models, note that several have the center of Fay moving over the Gulf of Mexico, where it is expected to strengthen-

[link to www.wunderground.com]

From the Advisory on Fay issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11pm ET, Thursday-

"Some models such as the ECMWF and HWRF continue to forecast a more southerly track over the northeastern Gulf...The exact track could have a significant impact on how strong Fay is after crossing the northern Florida Peninsula. If the more southerly tracks are correct and Fay spends a good bit of time centered over the northeastern Gulf...it could restrengthen beyond 24 hours...

...most of the guidance shows another slowdown as ridging builds over the Southern Plains and blocks Fay's forward progress again. The new official track shows essentially no motion beyond 72 hours."

[link to www.wunderground.com]

So here's how it's shaping up, about half of the computer models show Fay strengthening as it enters the Gulf, and then right as the deadly storm is over New Orleans, it's expected to stop dead in it's tracks.

Fay has already become one of the heaviest rain producing storms on record, with the National Hurricane Center predicting parts of Florida will get over 30" of rain. Melbourne, Florida already has over 26" of rain in the past two days, the previous record rainfall for the entire month of August combined in Melbourne was 22"!

A few days from now, how much rain could a strengthened Fay stalled over the city of New Orleans dump?

Alot.

And remember, it wasn't so much the winds that did in the New Orleans levees back in 2005, it was the water. Many of the major levee breaks happened after Katrina had moved well inland. And the highest rain total recorded from Katrina in the state of Louisiana was 15".

What would happen to the New Orleans levees if they got 3 feet of rain or more?

That's what Fay is leaving in it's wake in Florida, and the latest computer models have her making a beeline right for New Orleans!