SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

As in why did it drop and go flat like that.

A CRACK IN EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD: You know it's a good geomagnetic storm when *everything* turns green. Sky. Water. Earth. Even the wheels of your Jeep. That's what happened last night in Tromso,Norway.
[link to spaceweather.com (secure)]

[imgur] [link to i.imgur.com (secure)]

It's not funny but it is only because of seemingly 'perfect' the conditions are. Not to much, not to little. Just right.

Amazing aurora's though. ~

And of course - that spot that wasn't a sunspot is now a sunspot.

Sunspot AR2773 is a member of new Solar Cycle 25. It might be shortlived. The dark cores of this sunspot are small and some are fading.

[link to server1.kproxy.com (secure)]

cool pic, we just had a KP5 non-earth facing flare go off also, the sun spot will be turning towards earth in the next few days

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3056
Issue Time: 2020 Sep 24 1703 UTC

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2020 Sep 24 1540 UTC
Station: GOES-16


NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3760
Issue Time: 2020 Sep 25 0426 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2020 Sep 25 0425 UTC
Valid To: 2020 Sep 25 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2167
Issue Time: 2020 Sep 25 0601 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2020 Sep 25 0559 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Look at that - can see the entire destabilized region next to the sun spot on the magnetogram.

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]


Better hope this thing goes off soon before it's pointing more in our direction.

When you say it looks like a sunspot a week~ ago almost and NASA is like "Oh not that's not a sunspot it's a "plage" nothing to worry about it doesn't have black spots " etc etc


But then NASA comes out yesterday " Oh welcome sunspot AR 2773! "


But then today there is no sunspot listed anymore even though they said it was a sunspot and it clearly appears to still be there.


Either these are the dumbest - smart people , on the face of the Earth (which would be unsurprising because really smart people seem to miss a lot going on around them) , or they're simply untrustworthy.

Link from yesterday

[link to spaceweather.com (secure)]


Link from today

[link to spaceweather.com (secure)]




Because that makes sense.

[imgur] [link to imgur.com (secure)]

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3761
Issue Time: 2020 Sep 25 0849 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3760
Valid From: 2020 Sep 25 0425 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2020 Sep 25 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Also looking at the trend of the radio flux at the bottom of this page , there are two things that stand out to me.

The first being that the actual recent monthly values have steadily been increasing as well as increasingly higher than NASA's predictions.


Secondly , the value is approaching what it was at the time of Sep 2017 , just as the thread title is. And unless I'm mistaken appears to be the last time we had an X-class flare so perhaps we are overdue.


Now of course one could say , " the value has approached that value in recent years multiple times "

True.

But the overall flux is headed for an upwards progression now , where as the last few years it's been holding around a steady mean and hasn't been transitioning towards an upward or downward trend.

Looking at the past occurrences of flares , can see that when the flux values are in a transition of upward or downward trends , seems to be a much higher chance of extreme fluctuations like as we saw in the Sep 2017 X flare , which was the end period of the flux declining to the steady average it has been at for the past few years.

But now it's rising again.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Sunspot still here on the MDI

Diameter of 10 Earths

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3057
Issue Time: 2020 Sep 25 1041 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3056
Begin Time: 2020 Sep 24 1540 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1232 pfu

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Oh look and there appears to be a second sunspot which recently began forming directly below 2773 on the southern hemisphere.

Can see it partially in the magnetogram here

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]



Also can see it begin to brighten over the past day here in the 171 spectrum loop here

[link to weather.msfc.nasa.gov (secure)]

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3762
Issue Time: 2020 Sep 25 1434 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3761
Valid From: 2020 Sep 25 0425 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2020 Sep 25 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 1557
Issue Time: 2020 Sep 25 1706 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2020 Sep 25 1705 UTC
Valid To: 2020 Sep 25 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1299
Issue Time: 2020 Sep 25 1759 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2020 Sep 25 1759 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

C flare

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

[link to imgur.com (secure)]

Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 868
Issue Time: 2020 Sep 25 2023 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Sep 26: None (Below G1) Sep 27: None (Below G1) Sep 28: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3763
Issue Time: 2020 Sep 25 2354 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3762
Valid From: 2020 Sep 25 0425 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2020 Sep 26 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 1558
Issue Time: 2020 Sep 26 0457 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2020 Sep 26 0455 UTC
Valid To: 2020 Sep 26 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1300
Issue Time: 2020 Sep 26 0517 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2020 Sep 26 0516 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Yeah that looks like it was on the far side too even. Could kind of see the ribbon beginning to reach on the other side, atop the horizon of the sun, on the Suvi 171 image loop.


2773 is still active and that second one below it is probably going to get a number within the next 24 hours.

[link to weather.msfc.nasa.gov (secure)]



195 spectrum loop.

[link to weather.msfc.nasa.gov (secure)]



And we're likely in the red zone now - if it goes anytime within the next week , will be direct impact.

I wonder if they shut down vulnerable systems just in case that's why the SOHO EIT hasn't updated images since 9/23.

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3764
Issue Time: 2020 Sep 26 1107 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3763
Valid From: 2020 Sep 25 0425 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2020 Sep 26 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3058
Issue Time: 2020 Sep 26 1316 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3057
Begin Time: 2020 Sep 24 1540 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 6990 pfu

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]