ARCTIC BLAST COMMING !!! Feb 5 may be coldest since 1996!!!

Well when you can gather data from 1000 years ago to compare against a 4.6 billion year old planet - we would be able to assertain what constitutes a climate change. Looking at data that doesnt even repreaent 1percent of history doesnt lend itself to scientific proof. Perhaps this "change" is actually the normal - and we're just perceiving it as unusual because records don't go back far enough for us to know.

Only 14 thousand years ago about half of north america was covered in ice. )

Saturday, January 12, 2013What Are The Chances The Polar Vortex Drops Into The US?
By Andrew at 4:05 PM
The chances are on the rise for the potential of some serious Arctic cold hitting the nation going into the latter part of the month. But could the polar vortex actually enter the United States? Let's take a look.

This is the GFS model's 500 millibar forecast for Hour 264, about 11 days away. We see a deep depression of heights in the Great Lakes, shown as blues and purples and even whites. These colors symbolize extremely low heights, showing that the polar vortex is in that area. There are a few crucial things we need to get straight before we dive into this forecast.

First and foremost, it is now probable that the polar vortex will drop south from the Arctic. The thing the models are having trouble with is just how far south. Initially, when this vortex drops south, you will see a depression of heights in Canada, not unlike the one seen in the image above. In response, high pressure should form in western Canada and may propagate south into the West US as a positive Pacific-North American (PNA) index. The positive PNA opens the doors for cold air to flow south into much of the central Plains, Midwest and into the East US. I find it only logical that the PNA, which has been strongly negative recently, will have to push to neutral or slightly positive levels as this polar vortex pushes down. It's plain physics- if there is a force pushing down, there must be another force pushing up; in this case, the polar vortex will be pushing down and the PNA must then go positive with high pressure building up in the West US and west Canada.

This positive PNA will then open the door for chilly air to make its way as far south as the North Plains. Depending on where the polar vortex as a whole shifts through the following 2-4 days, the track of the vortex could be dramatically changed. Right now, it would seem likely that the vortex would want to keep pressing south due to the positive PNA starting to enforce its will upon the storm track, which then dips south in response. Something else supporting the Plains and Midwest starting off with the coldest temperatures is a very weak east-based negative NAO. If you look on the above image, you will see Greenland in the top-right corner with a sash of blue across it. That is low pressure and is the anti-cold positive NAO. However, there is a small green bubble of slightly higher heights that would signify the presence of a weak east-based negative NAO. The negative NAO has a west-based and east-based phase. The former option supports the cold hitting the East Coast, and the latter has the Plains/Midwest receiving the brunt of any cold and stormy activity. The GFS supports the idea of an east-based weak negative NAO, adding influence to the positive PNA that then supports a general cold regime taking place in the Plains/Midwest (possibly in the form of the polar vortex). It would eventually move east (the cold would), but with more of a moderated stance, not as strong as the Plains/Midwest.

This is Hour 240 of the new ECMWF model run, showing 500 millibar height anomalies. High pressure appears in warm colors, low pressure in cool colors. Here, we see the polar vortex has pushed east into the Canadian Maritimes, but another piece is reloading in south central Canada and would likely push south and east with time if this model went out further in time. This would also ensure a cold shock to the system, especially for those in the Plains, Great Lakes and Midwest. We still have that strong positive PNA paving the way for enhanced cold in the aforementioned regions, and what could be a weak east-based negative NAO trying to push north into southeast Greenland. Both models have a really nice cross-polar flow going on with high pressure pushing the jet stream north across the Arctic (hence cross-polar flow) and down into south Canada or even north US.

I made a check-list of things that need to happen in order for the polar vortex to begin pushing into the US. Confidence in these events occurring is added as well:

1: Polar vortex must shift south into Canada (Confidence: 85%)
2: PNA must go positive (Confidence: 55%)
3. At least a weak NAO must be in place (Confidence: 30%)

As you can see, there is still a lot to do before there is a good shot at the polar vortex sliding south into the States. However, we're already on our way to our best chance for winter yet- even if the vortex does not come crashing into the US, cold shots will make much of the north central and far northeast US colder.

Please don't ask what your location will be like, there's no answer to give at this point.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

MT @nwsmiami: It's warmer in #Cleveland, Ohio this Jan morning than in Orlando! It's 64F at Cleveland and 60F at Orlando! #flwx


3 hAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

At 3:30 AM EST, the temp on Mount Washington, NH (39F) was warmer than Dallas, TX (36F). Very unusual weather.


6 hAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Moderate to heavy freezing rain across #Chicago area as of 11:50PM CST. Untreated surfaces, bridges and overpasses are treacherous.

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Breaking news: Needed my new color-scale again to measure this extreme cold at 850-hPa -- 27°C below normal. Brutal. [link to twitter.com]

[link to i61.photobucket.com]

[link to www.nrlmry.navy.mil]

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

ECMWF 00z has come in extreme cold for next week w/Arctic air-mass to sweep thru Midwest & Eastern US. [link to twitter.com]

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

@PV_Anomaly still a long ways off, 8-10 days before the heart of cold air enters US although models agree that something is coming.

From one place experiencing extreme temps to another, good luck. Want to trade some cold for some heat?

US will Love that!!!

Cold Wave in USA on Sunday, 13 January, 2013 at 04:53 (04:53 AM) UTC.

Description
Californians are bundling up with sweaters and gloves and stocking up on firewood as they brace for several nights of freezing temperatures. The National Weather Service is forecasting morning frost on San Diego beaches. Big Sur, on the central coast, prepared for daytime highs almost 20 degrees below Boston's. Even the snowbird haven of Palm Springs faced the possibility of freezing temperatures at night. In addition, San Diego zookeepers turned up the heat for chimpanzees and some farmers broke out wind machines and took other steps to protect crops from freezing. Freeze warnings were in effect in San Diego County valleys and deserts Saturday morning with lows in the 20s and 30s, the weather service said. In Sonoma County, homeless shelters started handing out extra warm clothes on Friday to protect people from freezing overnight temperatures.
[link to hisz.rsoe.hu]

Winds always blow here in Kansas, nothing new.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE TODAY OVER ...

WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY...AS TEMPERATURES
FALL THROUGH THE 30S BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. EVEN THOUGH THE
RAIN WILL LIKELY END FOR AWHILE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY ALOFT WILL LIKELY EJECT NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE REGION LATER TODAY.

BY THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE 3000 TO 5000 FT. THUS...FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY FORM OF PRECIPITATION LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON NORTH AND WEST OF THE OHIO AND
WABASH RIVERS.

RAIN FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE WILL LIKELY TRANSITION OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE ALL PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN
END BY EARLY TONIGHT. DUE TO RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS OF NEAR RECORD WARMTH AND ALL OF THE
EXTREMELY WET SOIL CONDITIONS...IT APPEARS THAT MOST ICING IS
LIKELY TO BE RESTRICTED TO ELEVATED OBJECTS AND VEHICLES. ICING ON
ROADS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SUN LOWERS.

UNFORTUNATELY...THIS REMAINS A COMPLEX AND VERY DIFFICULT STORM
SYSTEM TO FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL
THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM DEVELOPS TODAY...AND WHERE THE SUB FREEZING
AIR IS LOCATED COMPARED TO THE ULTIMATE PATH OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. PLEASE STAYED TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL
WINTER WEATHER SITUATION...AND POSSIBLE UPGRADES TO NEAR TERM
ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS.



$$

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

It's currently warmer in Anchorage, Alaska (36 F) than Phoenix, AZ (32 F)

The forecast offices around here are very closely watching a potential arctic blast down the road. [link to www.srh.noaa.gov]

[link to weather.unisys.com] [link to weather.unisys.com] [link to weather.unisys.com]

Yep. I'm in Phoenix and as I sit here, at 8:25am, it's 27ºF out. Brr! My thin desert blood isn't used to this :)

Extended NWS Raleigh NC Discussion: DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ACROSS THE CONUS...THE CONSENSUS OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE HEMISPHERIC-SCALE...AND HAVE SUGGESTED FOR THE PAST 7-10 DAYS NOW THAT A STRONG AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NOAM IN POSITIVE PNA-FASHION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM FROM A TROUGH EAST OF HAWAII
WILL UNDERCUT THIS RIDGE AND EMERGE INVOF THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...AND ACCORDINGLY POSE A RISK FOR A COUPLE OF BOUTS OF CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE GOM TO THE GULF STREAM NEXT WEEK - PERHAPS THE FIRST LEGITIMATE OPPORTUNITY (OR TWO) FOR WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS SEASON.
It would be nice to see some winter!

but the worst is still on the way!!!

My weather unit recorded a low temperature of 25* early this AM at 5:47.
I am in NW Peoria AZ. I have lived here my whole life and its one of the coldest run of days I can remember. A lot of my neighbors failed to protect their tree's (mainly Ficus) and you can already see mass browning and cold burns on them.

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Thermal, CA has crushed its record low. Currently 20 degrees. Old record 25 degrees last tied in 2012.


59 minAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Lowest temps this morning: -36 degrees in West Yellowstone, WY.; -32 in Alamosa, CO. and -29 in Driggs, ID.

1 hAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Yesterday at this time it was 52 F at Chicago; currently, it's 26 F

Yep. My weather page says it's supposed to dip down to 23º tonight. Yikes!



Howdy neighbor! I'm in Peoria, too :)

The Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel

One more - Canada's largest city, Toronto (48ºF/9ºC) is currently warmer than Mexico's largest city, Mexico City (46ºF/8ºC).

3 hThe Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel

More bizarro temps: Erie PA (65º) and Cleveland OH (63º) are currently warmer than Orlando (58) & Daytona Beach (57). [link to wxch.nl]

3 hThe Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel

Currently 46º on top of Mt. Washington, warmer than San Diego (44), Los Angeles (43) and MUCH warmer than Phoenix (32). Amazing.

Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

The majesty of the changing weather on display next 2 weeks. Look at jan so far (left) and where core of cold heads (r) [link to twitter.com]

Its winter its supposed to be cold.

These Temperatures are mild compared to the winters of the 80's

wait untill next week

The Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel

A brutal morning at the nation's natural treasures. Currently -38ºF at West Yellowstone, MT and -19ºF at the Grand Canyon in AZ.

The Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel

The -19F at the Grand Canyon is the coldest January temp on record there (1976-2013). #azwx