Heads up - Severe Weather Texas! | |
CowgirlK (OP) User ID: 34838675 United States 04/07/2013 05:22 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Thanks, Cowgirl! You know my family's in Texas and I'm in Tennessee-- whatever y'all get there comes to me! I love spring but I hate the storms :( gotta take the good with the bad I guess. I'll be watching this thread! Quoting: snark I know Snark..From the sound of things there are going to be a lot of people under the weather gun for most of the coming week. If spring is going to be anything like the winter was..God help us all! |
CowgirlK (OP) User ID: 34838675 United States 04/07/2013 05:25 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Kansas...here is your forecast! HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 418 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013 KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-082130- RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE- RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER- SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE- 418 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS... SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVENING...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 400. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL UP TO SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES MAY CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...AS A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LARGE HAIL EXCEEDING THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW BRIEFLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS. |
C'est la vie User ID: 36323342 United States 04/07/2013 05:25 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
CowgirlK (OP) User ID: 34838675 United States 04/07/2013 05:31 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Kansas and Oklahoma..this one is for you! AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 337 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SUBTLE PRESSURE TROUGH THAT LIES WEST-EAST ALONG THE KS BORDER. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND SURGE NORTH. AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND CONTINUES EAST ACROSS KS. THERE IS POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR AN ISOLATED STORM TO DEVELOP OVER FAR NW OK/SW-S CNTRL KS AND TRACK EAST TOWARD NE OK. THE MOST RECENT AVAILABLE RUN OF THE HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS POSSIBILITY BUT IT IS STILL WORTH WATCHING. ANY UPDRAFT THAT CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF WILL LIKELY ROTATE...GIVEN ~50 KTS OF WESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE RIGHT MOVING BUNKERS SUPERCELL VECTOR HAS A MOTION JUST NORTH OF DUE EAST AT 20 KTS. THIS HAS BACKED FROM EARLIER TODAY...MOST LIKELY DUE TO STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN IMPULSE OVER NM PER WV IMAGERY. SO THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE KS BORDER AND MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 THROUGH THIS EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL TO BASEBALL SIZE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...AND DUE TO STRENGTHENING 0-1KM SHEAR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO COULD ACCOMPANY A SUPERCELL IF IT HAPPENED TO PAY US A VISIT THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE MORE WIDESPREAD AND MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS WILL GET ALONG AND NORTH OF SURFACE TROUGH TOWARD 06Z AS STRENGTHENING LLJ FOCUSES ISENTROPIC LIFT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH TO PUT RAIN CHANCES...AS OUR LOCAL MODEL DEVELOPS STORMS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL HEDGE AND PUT SLIGHT CHCS DOWN TO NEAR I-40. THE CAP STRENGTHENS ON MONDAY AND THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH CONSOLIDATES WITH A STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER. CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IT IS A HIGHLY CONDITIONAL SETUP (PROBABLY THE BEST OF THE WEEK)...BUT LOW PROB OF OCCURRENCE. THE NEXT BIG CHALLENGE WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE DATA TODAY HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED MY FORECAST REASONING FROM YESTERDAY MUCH AT ALL. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A DECENT CAP IN THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY...SO IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET STORMS TO GO WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL WELL WEST AND LACK OF ANY FOCUSING BOUNDARIES IN OUR AREA. IF A STORM DOES GO IN THE WARM SECTOR...IT WOULD LIKELY BE BAD...BUT ODDS ARE PRETTY LOW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FRONTAL FORCING ALONG A SURGING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT NEEDED FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SINCE UPPER TROUGH IS COMING OUT WITH A POSITIVE TILT...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...THUS STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT WILL TEND TO BE UNDERCUT QUICKLY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW ALMOST ALL QPF ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...INDICATIVE OF THIS VERY SCENARIO. I`M NOT SAYING THERE WILL NOT BE SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THE TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO BE UNDERCUT WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. POST-FRONTAL RAIN AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THRU WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL COOL OFF BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SUBTLE WAVE WILL PASS THRU THE PLAINS SATURDAY...WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING MORE CLOUD COVER. ONCE THAT PASSES...UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SW AND LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SW KS/SE CO. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL HERE AND TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY BY NEXT SUNDAY. |
CowgirlK (OP) User ID: 34838675 United States 04/07/2013 05:33 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I live just south of St. Louis, MO....Thanks for the heads up! I'll keep my eye to the sky, stay safe everyone. Quoting: C'est la vie This one is for the Show Me State! FLUS43 KLSX 072054 HWOLSX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 354 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-081115- GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL- MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL- CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO- LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO- AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO- LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO- ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO- WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO- MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO- 354 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS...AND A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN CENTRAL MISSOURI. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI. $$ GLASS [top] |
CowgirlK (OP) User ID: 34838675 United States 04/07/2013 05:35 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 429 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN WILSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS... WOODSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS... * UNTIL 500 PM CDT * AT 425 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF BUFFALO...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR AND LAW ENFORCEMENT. IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS EXPECTED. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... NEOSHO FALLS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 3793275 United Kingdom 04/07/2013 05:37 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Listen_n User ID: 1580156 United States 04/07/2013 05:38 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | You are right...this system will march across the US..so everyone needs to keep their eyes to the skies. Wait! What?? Who's aiming at us? Are we getting bad storms? The news didn't indicate that yesterday. They were pointing higher north. If we don't listen we will never hear the truth |
CowgirlK (OP) User ID: 34838675 United States 04/07/2013 05:39 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 437 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... BOURBON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS... * UNTIL 530 PM CDT * AT 434 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES WEST OF BRONSON...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...VEHICLES AND CROPS. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BRONSON...DEVON...FORT SCOTT...FULTON...HAMMOND...HARDING... MAPLETON...MARMATON...PETERSBURG...REDFIELD...UNIONTOWN AND XENIA. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A |
Texan Buckeye User ID: 1533753 United States 04/07/2013 05:41 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hey Cowgirl! Looks like a bumpy week. Thanks for the heads-up. Youngest is still in Norman and that looked like dead center. We're in a fire weather watch for tomorrow and the western half of the panhandle has a red flag warning. Sorry, I tried to copy/paste, but the mouse is still acting up. Looks like we'll have to get another one. It looks like we'll be getting more of New Mexico and Arizona's topsoil and TUMBLEWEEDS!!! |
CowgirlK (OP) User ID: 34838675 United States 04/07/2013 05:43 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | You are right...this system will march across the US..so everyone needs to keep their eyes to the skies. Wait! What?? Who's aiming at us? Are we getting bad storms? The news didn't indicate that yesterday. They were pointing higher north. Here you go..They are not predicting severe for you yet..wait for it. FXUS64 KMEG 072033 AFDMEG AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 333 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013 .DISCUSSION... ...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BEAUTIFUL SPRING WEATHER TO THE MIDSOUTH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ONE CAVEAT WILL BE THE CLOUDS. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. EACH DAY...IT WILL GET HARDER AND HARDER TO BREAK UP. THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF PEAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED. ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. ANY SHOWERS THAT WOULD OCCUR WOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND LIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z AND NOW 12Z ECMWF WITH AT LEAST INITIAL TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. SEVERAL DAYS OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MID 60 DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. A SFC LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS SHORTLY AFTER 18Z (1 PM) WEDNESDAY. PROXIMITY OF SFC LOW SHOULD BE AROUND THE NE ARKANSAS...SE MISSOURI...AND W KENTUCKY AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 200-300 M2/S2. THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG WITH THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FIRST ONSET OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 1 PM-4 PM WEDNESDAY ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL BASED ON LATEST MODELS WHICH ARE A LITTLE EARLIER WITH TIMING THAN YESTERDAYS RUN. STORMS WILL APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA BETWEEN 4PM -7PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE WHICH WILL PUSH EAST. HOW QUICKLY STILL REMAINS A QUESTION. THE 12Z GFS PUSHES LINE AND COLD FRONT OUT OF THE CWA BY 12-15Z(7-10 AM)THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE 00Z AND NOW THE NEW 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER BUT NOT AS SLOW AS YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE A THREAT AS WELL. CONTINUE TO STAY TUNED. LONG TERM...THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY LINGERING RAIN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART. |
Listen_n User ID: 1580156 United States 04/07/2013 05:48 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | You are right...this system will march across the US..so everyone needs to keep their eyes to the skies. Wait! What?? Who's aiming at us? Are we getting bad storms? The news didn't indicate that yesterday. They were pointing higher north. Here you go..They are not predicting severe for you yet..wait for it. FXUS64 KMEG 072033 AFDMEG AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 333 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013 .DISCUSSION... ...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BEAUTIFUL SPRING WEATHER TO THE MIDSOUTH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ONE CAVEAT WILL BE THE CLOUDS. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. EACH DAY...IT WILL GET HARDER AND HARDER TO BREAK UP. THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF PEAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED. ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. ANY SHOWERS THAT WOULD OCCUR WOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND LIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z AND NOW 12Z ECMWF WITH AT LEAST INITIAL TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. SEVERAL DAYS OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MID 60 DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. A SFC LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS SHORTLY AFTER 18Z (1 PM) WEDNESDAY. PROXIMITY OF SFC LOW SHOULD BE AROUND THE NE ARKANSAS...SE MISSOURI...AND W KENTUCKY AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 200-300 M2/S2. THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG WITH THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FIRST ONSET OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 1 PM-4 PM WEDNESDAY ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL BASED ON LATEST MODELS WHICH ARE A LITTLE EARLIER WITH TIMING THAN YESTERDAYS RUN. STORMS WILL APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA BETWEEN 4PM -7PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE WHICH WILL PUSH EAST. HOW QUICKLY STILL REMAINS A QUESTION. THE 12Z GFS PUSHES LINE AND COLD FRONT OUT OF THE CWA BY 12-15Z(7-10 AM)THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE 00Z AND NOW THE NEW 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER BUT NOT AS SLOW AS YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE A THREAT AS WELL. CONTINUE TO STAY TUNED. LONG TERM...THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY LINGERING RAIN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART. You rock Cowgirl! Thanks! Here's what our forcast says for the week: [link to weather.yahoo.com] If we don't listen we will never hear the truth |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 37625060 United States 04/07/2013 05:52 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Thanks, Cowgirl! You know my family's in Texas and I'm in Tennessee-- whatever y'all get there comes to me! I love spring but I hate the storms :( gotta take the good with the bad I guess. I'll be watching this thread! Quoting: snark I know Snark..From the sound of things there are going to be a lot of people under the weather gun for most of the coming week. If spring is going to be anything like the winter was..God help us all! Cowgirl: The terminology used in your statement above compelled me to write this post: As someone who went through a major tornado event decades ago, I can tell you that it forever impacts you emotionally. So I always want to tell others that yes! you MUST be alert, cautious, prepared, and take storms seriously . . . BUT, there is a fine line between that and unnecessarily inciting fear. Some of the DFW tv meteorologists are bad about using overly-fear-driven adjectives when talking about storms and tornado watches, and someone needs to explain to them how important it is to consider the terminology when discussing potentially serious weather events. Their job is to keep everyone informed and provide up-to-the minute status reports, especially during tornado watches, so they should be firm and direct enough to make people pay attention and take things seriously . . . but they should not throw around adjectives that can instill undue panic, especially for those who've been through tornadoes and have to work to keep their stresses under control during storms. Just saying . . . |
CowgirlK (OP) User ID: 34838675 United States 04/07/2013 05:53 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hey Cowgirl! Looks like a bumpy week. Thanks for the heads-up. Youngest is still in Norman and that looked like dead center. Quoting: Texan Buckeye We're in a fire weather watch for tomorrow and the western half of the panhandle has a red flag warning. Sorry, I tried to copy/paste, but the mouse is still acting up. Looks like we'll have to get another one. It looks like we'll be getting more of New Mexico and Arizona's topsoil and TUMBLEWEEDS!!! Hey Buckey! Yea, so far all they are predicting for Texas is lots of wind. Time will tell if we are going to get anything else. It's lining up to be a dangerous weather week for many states. I hope by starting this thread today it will give people time to prepare. Tell your youngest, if a twister is headed their way get into a storm shelter, basement or a beer cooler at the bar. I got a phone call from my daughter years ago while she was at college in Missouri during a tornado. She said, Don't worry mom, we are hunkered down in a beer cooler. The only problem I see is paying our bar tab..KIDS! |
Texan Buckeye User ID: 1533753 United States 04/07/2013 05:55 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hey Cowgirl! Looks like a bumpy week. Thanks for the heads-up. Youngest is still in Norman and that looked like dead center. Quoting: Texan Buckeye We're in a fire weather watch for tomorrow and the western half of the panhandle has a red flag warning. Sorry, I tried to copy/paste, but the mouse is still acting up. Looks like we'll have to get another one. It looks like we'll be getting more of New Mexico and Arizona's topsoil and TUMBLEWEEDS!!! Hey Buckey! Yea, so far all they are predicting for Texas is lots of wind. Time will tell if we are going to get anything else. It's lining up to be a dangerous weather week for many states. I hope by starting this thread today it will give people time to prepare. Tell your youngest, if a twister is headed their way get into a storm shelter, basement or a beer cooler at the bar. I got a phone call from my daughter years ago while she was at college in Missouri during a tornado. She said, Don't worry mom, we are hunkered down in a beer cooler. The only problem I see is paying our bar tab..KIDS! Hahaha!!! That would be where I'd find him...AND with all the girls! |
CowgirlK (OP) User ID: 34838675 United States 04/07/2013 06:02 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Thanks, Cowgirl! You know my family's in Texas and I'm in Tennessee-- whatever y'all get there comes to me! I love spring but I hate the storms :( gotta take the good with the bad I guess. I'll be watching this thread! Quoting: snark I know Snark..From the sound of things there are going to be a lot of people under the weather gun for most of the coming week. If spring is going to be anything like the winter was..God help us all! Cowgirl: The terminology used in your statement above compelled me to write this post: As someone who went through a major tornado event decades ago, I can tell you that it forever impacts you emotionally. So I always want to tell others that yes! you MUST be alert, cautious, prepared, and take storms seriously . . . BUT, there is a fine line between that and unnecessarily inciting fear. Some of the DFW tv meteorologists are bad about using overly-fear-driven adjectives when talking about storms and tornado watches, and someone needs to explain to them how important it is to consider the terminology when discussing potentially serious weather events. Their job is to keep everyone informed and provide up-to-the minute status reports, especially during tornado watches, so they should be firm and direct enough to make people pay attention and take things seriously . . . but they should not throw around adjectives that can instill undue panic, especially for those who've been through tornadoes and have to work to keep their stresses under control during storms. Just saying . . . I agree with you. I have been through my fair share of weather disasters too, including blizzards, typhoons, hurricanes and tornado's. And yes, It changes a person forever. The point I am trying to drive home here is...It's spring and with that comes storms. People need to take responsibility for their own safety, monitor the weather and not rely on the local TV weather gal in a short skirt to tell them when to bring their tomato plants in. That's why I put links to radar sites on the first page of this thread. That being said, It's going to be a bumpy weather week. This is a good time for people to make sure they are prepared for whatever mother nature throws at us. |
snark Forum Administrator User ID: 35949533 United States 04/07/2013 06:04 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I am thankful for our basement! Right at a year ago we had a bad, bad hailstorm that creamed about half of the roofs in Nashville, including ours. My mom was visiting, and she was upstairs when the storm started. I was watching the news and when the tornado warning came I yelled at her "mom come ON and get in the basement!" She starts moseying down the stairs real calm and says "I'm from Texas, this is nothing..." I go "GET YOUR ASS IN THE BASEMENT NOW!" and right then the windows start breaking in the house. She hauled her tiny ass down to the basement right quick!! I don't usually talk to my mom like that but I was scared!! Last Edited by snark on 04/07/2013 06:06 PM T For Texas, T For Tennessee! The virtue of courage is a prerequisite for the practice of all other virtues, because otherwise one is virtuous only when virtue has no cost. There are times when something needs to be done, and yet we know that if we step up and do this needful thing, we will pay a heavy personal price. -C.S. Lewis |
CowgirlK (OP) User ID: 34838675 United States 04/07/2013 06:06 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | KS is getting the storms right now. Twitter: Kyla Grogan Severe Weather rolling through SE Kansas into Missouri at this hour. Golf ball sized hail reported. KS ALERT: A Severe Weather Statement has been issued for Allen & Neosho Counties until 05:45 PM. Golf Ball Size Hail And 60 Mph Wind Gusts.. |
CowgirlK (OP) User ID: 34838675 United States 04/07/2013 06:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I am thankful for our basement! Right at a year ago we had a bad, bad hailstorm that creamed about half of the roofs in Nashville, including ours. My mom was visiting, and she was upstairs when the storm started. I was watching the news and when the tornado warning came I yelled at her "mom come ON and get in the basement!" She starts moseying down the stairs real calm and says "I'm from Texas, this is nothing..." I go "GET YOUR ASS IN THE BASEMENT NOW!" and right then the windows start breaking in the house. She hauled her tiny ass down to the basement right quick!! I don't usually talk to my mom like that but I was scared!! Quoting: snark WOW...You are a good daughter! I worry about that type of thing here in North Texas where we don't have a basement to get into. Every room in this house has tons of windows so the only safe place is a hall bathroom and a closet under the steps. If I didn't have dogs to worry about I guess I could run into town and hide out in beer cooler like my daughter. LOL |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 37471756 United States 04/07/2013 06:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
CowgirlK (OP) User ID: 34838675 United States 04/07/2013 06:17 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Sunday, April 7 Isolated severe thunderstorms in the central two-thirds of Kansas from near Dodge City and Hays to Manhattan and Wichita, northwest and north-central Oklahoma (excluding the panhandle), spreading overnight across eastern Kansas and into west-central Missouri. TOR:CON - 2 to 3 for these areas through Sunday evening. Monday, April 8 Isolated severe thunderstorms in western and central Kansas, northwest and north-central Oklahoma (excluding the panhandle), extreme northeast Colorado, south-central and southwest Nebraska. Maximum TOR:CON - 4 northwest KS. Severe thunderstorms may spread overnight into southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas. Tuesday, April 9 Severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes in south-central and eastern Kansas, northeastern quarter and western half of Missouri, western Arkansas, central and eastern Oklahoma, north-central and northeast Texas, southeast Iowa, west-central Illinois. Maximum TOR:CON - 5 eastern Kansas. Severe thunderstorms spreading overnight across central Texas, central Arkansas, east-central and southeast Missouri, and western Illinois. Wednesday, April 10 Severe thunderstorms along and somewhat ahead of a cold front in extreme southwest MI, IN, northeast, central, south IL, west KY, west TN, north and west MS, west and central LA, east and southeast TX, spreading overnight into southeast LA, across MS and into west AL and possibly the west FL panhandle. TOR:CON - 4 east-central IL, west-central IN; 3 to 4 elsewhere [link to www.weather.com] |
LOU512 User ID: 15499118 United States 04/07/2013 06:17 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 32264268 United States 04/07/2013 06:20 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Thanks, Cowgirl! You know my family's in Texas and I'm in Tennessee-- whatever y'all get there comes to me! I love spring but I hate the storms :( gotta take the good with the bad I guess. I'll be watching this thread! Quoting: snark I know Snark..From the sound of things there are going to be a lot of people under the weather gun for most of the coming week. If spring is going to be anything like the winter was..God help us all! |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 32069520 United States 04/07/2013 06:21 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
CowgirlK (OP) User ID: 34838675 United States 04/07/2013 06:27 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Jeez. Not again. I hate this at the time of the year. Constant threats of hails and tornadoes... Quoting: AlcoholicRunner Somebody got hit with baseball sized hails not far from here the other day... I'm with you..I want the rain but not the winds and hail. BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 524 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EASTERN BOURBON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS... NORTHERN BARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... VERNON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI... * UNTIL 615 PM CDT * AT 521 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FORT SCOTT...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED IN UNIONTOWN KANSAS. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...VEHICLES AND CROPS. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BRONAUGH...DEERFIELD...FORT SCOTT...GARLAND...HAMMOND...HANNON... HARWOOD...HORTON...MILO...MONTEVALLO...MOUNDVILLE...NEVADA... OSKALOOSA...PAWNEE STATION...RICHARDS...SHELDON...STOTESBURY AND WALKER. THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REPLACES THE ONE PREVIOUSLY OUT FOR BOURBON COUNTY |
CowgirlK (OP) User ID: 34838675 United States 04/07/2013 06:30 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Published on Sunday, 07 April 2013 13:30 Good afternoon! Hopefully everyone is able to get out and enjoy this beautiful Spring day! Cloudy, muggy and overcast where I’m at north of Dallas, but western and southwestern parts of the state are enjoying some beautiful sunny skies and temps already into the 80′s. Breezy conditions will exist across most of the state today with gusts in the 30-35mph range across central and western parts of the state. The cloud deck currently over the eastern portion of the state is expected to stick around, so some of the highs portrayed on the graphic below may be just a few degrees overstated. No rain is expected in the state today. As discussed earlier by David and Conley, our best chances for rain and thunderstorms looks to be Tuesday and into Wednesday as a strong upper low sweeps through from the west and a strong cold front drops down from the north. A squall line of storms oriented from northeast to southwest across the state is likely Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday morning. At this time, the biggest threats with this line of storms should be large hail and damaging winds. We will continue to monitor and keep you updated! [link to www.texasstormchasers.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 36888409 United States 04/07/2013 06:35 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
CowgirlK (OP) User ID: 34838675 United States 04/07/2013 06:43 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Got ya covered Arkansas! Here is another one for Kansas ULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 539 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS... * UNTIL 645 PM CDT * AT 534 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ALEXANDER... AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... NEKOMA...HARGRAVE...RUSH CENTER...LA CROSSE...BISON...TIMKEN... LORETTA...SHAFFER AND OTIS. |
usa1961 User ID: 36730689 United States 04/07/2013 06:49 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I live on the very bottom of the second image, the second day when it blows up. Im in a travel trail camping, thanks for this headsup, tomorrow i will get to town for a room. Again ty. stop blamming, start doing something for yourself. whites wont always be here to support you. |
CowgirlK (OP) User ID: 34838675 United States 04/07/2013 06:53 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 545 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS... NORTHWESTERN DICKINSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS... EAST CENTRAL OTTAWA COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS... * UNTIL 630 PM CDT * AT 541 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF MANCHESTER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MANCHESTER...LONGFORD AND OAK HILL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... |