Using the Smithsonian Volcano Research database and sampling every five years the following trend for eruptions is shown for the past 150 years.
2005 68
2000 67
1995 60
1990 53
1985 52
1980 65
1975 50
1970 54
1965 53
1960 57
1955 46
1950 48
1945 36
1940 45
1935 42
1930 37
1925 42
1920 37
1915 34
1910 41
1905 40
1900 34
1895 32
1890 38
1885 39
1880 30
1875 24
1870 24
1865 32
1860 32
1855 23
Quoting: By JupiterZ-value, Yr, Number
2.002463448 2005 68
1.92215767 2000 67
1.360017219 1995 60
0.797876769 1990 53
0.71757099 1985 52
1.761546112 1980 65
0.556959433 1975 50
0.878182547 1970 54
0.797876769 1965 53
1.119099883 1960 57
0.235736318 1955 46
0.396347875 1950 48
-0.567321469 1945 36
0.155430539 1940 45
-0.085486797 1935 42
-0.48701569 1930 37
-0.085486797 1925 42
-0.48701569 1920 37
-0.727933026 1915 34
-0.165792575 1910 41
-0.246098354 1905 40
-0.727933026 1900 34
-0.888544583 1895 32
-0.406709911 1890 38
-0.326404133 1885 39
-1.04915614 1880 30
-1.530990812 1875 24
-1.530990812 1870 24
-0.888544583 1865 32
-0.888544583 1860 32
-1.611296591 1855 23
Year 2005 is statistically significantly different, p<.05
Trend Analysis:
Yr, Number
2035 69.54314516
2030 68.28225806
2025 67.02137097
2020 65.76048387
2015 64.49959677
2010 63.23870968
Assuming linear growth; if logistic growth then future years will see much higher predictions. If we use the last 20 years for trend, then:
Yr, Number
2035 96.8
2030 92.2
2025 87.6
2020 83
2015 78.4
2010 73.8
If between 150 year trend and last 20 year trend, then:
Yr, Number
2035 between 70 and 97 volcano eruptions
2030 between 68 and 92 volcano eruptions
2025 between 67 and 88 volcano eruptions
2020 between 66 and 84 volcano eruptions
2015 between 64 and 78 volcano eruptions
2010 between 63 and 74 volcano eruptions
All trends point to increased vulcanism in the next 30 years.
Year 2005 eruption frequency is statistically aberrant from the past 150 years, p < .05
Something is up...
