OP - at this point if there aren’t 800-1,000 by Feb 16th, this it only means your model is lagging in time. This virus isn’t stopping. More and more are claiming the R0 is greater than 2. No matter what the actual number it is obviously greater than 1 and I don’t think Western countries has the wherewithal to impose a Chinese Lockdown.

It is unfathomable what we are witnessing and what we will witness.