China's invasion of Taiwan: step by step

There has been a lot of talk in recent months about China advancing preparations to invade Taiwan.

So how would they actually do it?

What would be the first signs we'd see?

Well, while nobody except the military planners in Beijing themselves knows for certain, the below scenario is the closest thing we have to how it would play out.

1. Hints of trouble

Reports of cyber disruptions across Taiwan. Satellite disruption and jamming. Local reporters in Taiwan and the region might suggest it is a cyberattack, but there would be little else to suggest anything is seriously wrong. That is, until military satellites start going offline.

2. Jets fill the sky

We will begin hearing social media reports of explosions in Taiwan through Asia's regional correspondents, though confirmation of these reports will not be immediate because of the signal jamming and Internet being down in Taiwan. Targets would include air defences, government buildings and other critical infrastructure like bridges, railways, etc.

3. Invasion confirmed

Chinese warships, submarines and landing craft will rush the 130km Strait and quickly begin assaulting outlying islands, like Kinmen and Pratas. Oncethe Penghu archipelago is taken, the PLA will use this as a springboard for an invasion of Taiwan's mainland. Paratroopers will land in strategic locations while the landing ships arrive on shore to secure China's victory.

4. Fight to the death

However, Taiwan won't give up easily. Many Chinese ships and submarines will be sunk during the initial onslaught, and the island's mountainous terrain will prove difficult for China's invading forces. The best case scenario for Beijing is a quick surrender from the Taiwanese political and military leaders in order to ensure minimal loss of life. If they refuse to give in, millions of Taiwanese could die. There are few leaders on earth more ruthless than Xi Xinping, after all. It's unlikely that Taiwan would underestimate his resolve to win at any cost. So the final decision by Taiwan's leadership may be a difficult, but merciful one.

The most likely timeframe for a Chinese invasion is between 2024-2025. By this time, China will have the required number of aircraft carriers to ensure total air supremacy in the region.

As of 2021, China has the largest navy in the world, the largest ground forces in the world and the second largest economy (they will have the largest economy by 2026). By the end of 2022, China is also expected to have the largest air force in the world.

This is why they're waiting. They could probably achieve victory (albeit a hard-fought one) if they invaded Taiwan tomorrow, but they're biding their time to ensure they can outnumber and outgun any world power that might choose to interfere when the invasion happens. This is how badly Xi Xinping wants to secure his legacy.

Last Edited by Zethron Zabrador on 10/08/2021 02:31 AM