Tropical Depression AL12 (KATIA)

what knds of meds for that?

Would be funny if no one took it seriously and then doom happens.

That would make the destruction even more severe.

And it's name will be Katia which is a variant of Katrina - essentially the same name....

And like the boy who cried 'wolf', no one will listen.

UPDATE

1200 UTC 30 AUG 2011

Current model summary

Cycle Track
Continue 270-290 degree track through 120 hours
Only one model showing a more Easterly veer

Intensity
Three models show CAT 1 in 132 hours
Two models show CAT 2 in 132 hours
Seven models show CAT 3 in 132 hours
one model shows CAT 4 in 132 hours

[link to www.ral.ucar.edu]


I will be adding upper atmospheric (Northern Jet Stream) data to analysis within 40 hours.


Otherness

UPDATE 8/31/2011

Storm continues to move northwesterly, scientist expects it to "recurve". That means move out into the Atlantic before getting to Florida.

[link to www.sfgate.com]



I am skeptical (as was the scientist in above article) about speculating the path just as of yet.

WHAT WE KNOW:
Given the fact that there is low windsheer with high 80's water temp, this should turn into a Hurricane by today or tomorrow.

WHAT WE DONT KNOW:
I have been monitoring the 300mb Jetstream models as a basis for "steering". We can't really say what will happen for another 3 days. Take a look yourself:

[link to squall.sfsu.edu]

Otherness

Update 9/2/2011

Katia has made a slight turn north, which was expected from 270 to approximately 285 degrees north by northwest. Still has not been classified as a Hurricane. It is right on the edge with sustained winds of 70 MPH.

Last Edited by Otherness on 09/02/2011 08:42 AM

Update 12:11 pm 9/2/2011

Katia officially upgraded to Hurricane status.

Weatherchannel reporter states that Katia is looking more likely to have an impact on East Coast after labor day.

Update 9 AM EST

As of the 5 a.m. Saturday advisory, Katia had maximum sustained winds of 75 miles an hour, making it a minimal Category 1 hurricane. There has been essestially no change in power in the last day.

It was moving to the northwest at 10 miles an hour.

[link to www.wltx.com]

Article goes on to state that the potential for US landfall rests on the subtropical ridge in the Atlantic. If it is strong then the track of Katia will be more northerly. Currently upper level winds are making it tough for Katia to grow in intensity.

I still stick by my prediction that this will rival Irene. My models show a landfall on South Carolina by Sunday or early Monday of next week. Stay tuned...


Otherness

Last Edited by Otherness on 09/04/2011 12:12 PM

Update 12:18 PM EST, September 3rd,2011


National Weather Hurricane Center is saying the Katia will not reach major hurricane strength by Thursday, but may be headed for Virgina, New Jersey and Delaware.

[link to news.brevardtimes.com]

I am still holding for a South Carolina landfall at this time.

It appears as that is happening...

But the Scientists are starting to chirp...
[link to news.brevardtimes.com]

Update 12 PM, Sunday September 4th, 2011

Latest development shows Katia has sustained winds of 100mph which upgrades "her" to a Catagory 2 status.

Hurricane force winds are expanding 45 miles from her center with tropical forces winds a further 175 miles.

[link to www.palmbeachpost.com]

Direction of travel

Katia is stil on an average northwest track.


Otherness Forecast:
Look for this storm to intensify over the next two days, to category 3 or perhaps 4. Track will remain constant to the Northwest, look for slight Northerly change by Wednesday.

Land fall still predicted for Central to North S.Carolina. Time frame moved up to Satuday-Sunday as it will pick up speed.
This storm will head north then along a similar track to Irene.


Otherness

(can we pin this someday?)

Last Edited by Otherness on 09/04/2011 12:14 PM

Update 4pm EST, September 4th, 2011

New model predictions:

I am projecting Katia to increase in speed thus making landfall by Friday or early Saturday, as opposed to Saturday-Sunday. Land fall target is slowly moving north from central S.Carolina to North of Central South Carolina. Approaching border S.Carolina/N.Carolina.

Stay tuned, next observation will be approximately 6pm 9/4/2011.


Otherness

Update 6PM Sunday September 4th, 2011

Storm continues on same track as reported earlier. Winds have increased to near 105 mph.

GFS, ESWMF and UKMET models are showing mid to upper level closed lows developing over Eastern US which could mean Katia will turn more northerly over the next 48 hours.

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

Update 8:43AM Monday, September 5th, 2011

IMO the next 72 hours will paint the picture on this storms path and strength. Get ready- one way or another we will know.

As of 8:50
Katia has weakened slightly, with it's eye wall becoming wobbly and disorganized. Katia's direction forecast has not changed, the speed of the storm may slow in the next 30 hours.



[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by Otherness on 09/05/2011 09:00 AM

Keep it up opie.

Imagine if they hyped up Irene on purpose to make people doubt the next Hurricane?

Who knows, but I saw a lot of weird things with Irene as it happened that makes me amore a believer in severe weather modifying.

Given the U.S has had a looooong string of luck for some time since Katrina, I think there may be more to the story than all of realize.

Thanks for the encouragement, I was beginning to think I was typing to myself.

I've been watching this storm since it formed off the coast of Africa with a strange feeling that this was going to be newsworthy event. I'll keep posting updates and news that is noteworthy until the end of the event.

Maybe this will get pinned someday?!

Thanks for following this for us!!
I'll sugest a 'Pin'.

Thanks...

I recently have been studying the 300mb Jet Stream and there is a small disturbance over South Nevada that could become a steering event in the next 30 Hours.

[link to squall.sfsu.edu]

To view data Select 1 day, then build animation.

If you look down through Mexico you can see a clockwise pattern.

I'm going to keep an eye here as this rotation could produce a more "westerly" steer in the days to come.

Last Edited by Otherness on 09/05/2011 10:30 AM

Here is a great link to the fore-mentioned disturbance over NV down through Mexico

[link to www.weather.gov]

Update 2:38PM EST, Sunday September 5, 2011

Katia's eye has reformed and she has strengthened!

Winds now up to 110mph with higher gusts...

Forcaster Berg at the National Weather Hurricane Center stated that this could be a major Hurricane by the end of day

Predicted travel still is around 310 degrees.
[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

Stay tuned for next update.

Last Edited by Otherness on 09/05/2011 02:45 PM

UPDATE 5:35 PM Monday, September 5th, 2011...

Well I see that folks want to write off KATIA. That's fine. I've started this monitoring and I will continue till there is nothing newsworthy.



Interests in BERMUDA have been upgraded, as KATIA continues to move at her 310 degree course. The wind intensity probabilities are expanding now to include the possibility of 50KT winds in BERMUDA. (very small %)
[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

Danger warning issued for rip currents along BERMUDA and the East Coast of the U.S..

This is indicative of a more northerly veer. The next 40 hours will be interesting.



Otherness

Last Edited by Otherness on 09/05/2011 05:55 PM

I'd like to thank all of you for the great Karma! I really don't deserve it, but it is truly appreciated!

I did learn something new today...I'm a moron for not knowing what a moran was! lol

Humility is awesome..

Till next report...


Otherness

Update 6:55AM, Tuesday September 6th, 2011

Katia's eyewall has gone through another transformation overnight, but the storm continues to be a major hurricane. It is currently a catagory 3.

Scientists and researchers are still unsure what this storm is going to do in the next 40 hours or so.

Researchers predict the storm will weaken in the next 48 hours, then make it's turn a the north-northeasterly direction.

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

My model continues to stray from the consensus as I continue to see a clockwise vapor rotation, moving through the lower west U.S.. This activity could weaken the normal tendency of storms to move Easterly over the Atlantic.



Look at the boundary layer over Florida pop up!


[link to www.weather.gov]

Otherness

Update 10:48AM, Tuesday September 6th, 20ll

I continue to monitor KATIA and the weather over the U.S.

Latest visible Satellite loop shows some interesting behaviors with respect to the remnants of LEE, an area of pressure moving over Texas and KATIA. Please note all three as they are quite visable


[link to www.goes.noaa.gov]

The Fujiwara effect may have a weak hand as a steering control that may entice KATIA more Westerly than models have indicated. This area of pressure now forming over Texas needs more monitoring.


Otherness

Storm is not going to hit anywhere, thought I would comment since not many do on this thread

OP - a tropical storm is going to form in the south west GULF - Bay of Champeche in a couple days - maybe that will give ya something more to do ....

[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]

Thanks for the heads up and nice link, looks impressive. I'll definitely keep an eye on it. I'm going to keep monitoring KATIA till it's over and officially moves off into the Atlantic.

Update 11AM EST Tuesday September 6, 2011

A tropical storm watch has been issued for BERMUDA.

Storm continues on same path at 310 Degrees. As expected KATIA has slowed slightly from 11 KT to 8 KT (24 hours). Sustained wind are 105 KT with gusts to 130. KATIA is still a category 3 storm.

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

A hurricane hunter aircraft has been scheduled to check the intensity of KATIA this afternoon.

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]