NH: Ron Paul closing gap in new Zogby poll - Surging in the latest polls!

He needs a landslide in order to show it; question is will the people make a big enough stink about it should that happen or will it be "business as usual"?

Last Edited by BBQ Guy on 01/06/2012 12:15 PM

They have to. The people who have been wide awake for years have been waiting for this moment - the moment when a significant portion of the masses have woken up. We are at that point. If it just goes back to business as usual, it will lead to incredible frustration and dropping out of the system. On the other hand, if they show fortitude and shed light on and fight the fraud, we will redouble our efforts.

I had pretty much dropped out until I discovered Ron Paul. I don't know how I am going to keep up my enthusiasm if they allow RP to go down without a whimper again (like '08). I'll give it a little while after Tuesday to see what happens. I hope we are not disappointed.

This is the only one you see on tv.

Dose of reality time....why the hell am I always the one that has to inject reality into these threads?...Oh well...I don't like being right all the time...oh wait yes I do..LOL...sorry bout that....rofl....just had to get a little shot in there....anyway...here it comes...

Want to know the delegate break down that will come from Iowa?...

Romney 28...all others ZIP...

If you doubt that total?...go look up the delegate count from 2008....you may find a shocker there...remember how Huckabee won?...guess what his delegate count was...ZIP...

and why you ask?....because no one else is going to BE in the race by the time the national convention comes and all delegates will go to Romney....awwwww....sooo sorry...

anyway so now into New Hampster....and yes I like calling NH New "Hampster"....Remember how I told you Romney was most likely to win in a close race and it would all depend on how Santorum Surged and if could actually get past RP and NG and that if he could he'd be the big story?....how'd that work out?....vs the RON PAUL LANDSLIDE WEEE!!!! camp...and could I have rubbed that in big time like a dick?...sure I could of...but I have compassion for you Ronulans so I didn't...see how nice I am?....don't believe the rumors that I'm a heartless psychopath with acid for blood...they're mostly not really completely 100% true..mostly....lol...

So once again NH analysis...Romney is going to win, that's not the story...the real story will be how contrary NH wants to play it this time and be anti-winner as they often do...so the real story will be who takes second and who got put down and who came up in a surge.

Ron Paul is holding steady second place with little fluctuation in his polling...no one cares and if his results follow his usual outcomes he will finish lower than his polling...as I said, no one cares. and even if he places second it will be an expected Zzzzzzzzz...outcome...Ronulans of course will go berzerk and claim victory if RP happens to actually produce a result that even comes near his polling, they will also go berzerk no matter where he places and claim voter stealers and all sorts of sinister anti-Ron bullshit being deployed and that he actually won by a landslide but of course that has been suppressed as Ronulans always do...but there again...no one will care...watch for a wildcard big swing coming from a possible Ron Paul lights off a bomb in his underpants with some completely retarded debate statements ala Paul which is also a very good possibility. The GOP is tiring of Yosemite Sampaul tarding up the field and he might actually get some questioning and some shots from the other candidates...that will hinge on whether they feel like giving him any time to blabber off like a gooftard which risks making the entire field look bad and they are all very much aware of that. To a lessor degree there is also the bully factor where anyone who engages him runs the risk of looking like the guy who beat up the retard..so there is that optic as well in play. There could also be a small operation chaos factor but more likely than not that will be small as Demorats will likely be more concerned playing draft Hillary...

I spend more time analyzing Ron Paul because you all are more interested in him, but if I took on par with his actual political weight?...he'd get 2 sentances....so moving on...

Newt is still clinging to top teir...that is really only due to his prior notoriety factor playing heavily....his surge is more or less over and he's another Wile-E-Coyote who's just as likely to blow up the bad guy as he is to put the explosives down his own underpants and blow himself up. People LOVE his ability to rip, riff, slash and burn in a debate, but they are also concerned of his past and baggage and all the downsides...his new penny shine is worn off now and he's forced to go negative on Romney..how effective that will be is still un-known, but Romney is greasy as fuckall and IMO it will not be very effective. Newt will finish down around forth place in NH by my assessment and that won't be good for him.

Santorum is still riding his surge and people are beginning to give him a good look...if they just go by his current events and debate performances?....he'll do better than expected...if he finishes in second or third or really even in double digits?...then he'll claim a good result and press on. A lot of his finish will ride on how well he does in the last 2 debates prior to the primary....expect to him wage some assault on Romney...how that will go is unknown but all candidates know that Romney has a commanding lead and taking him on risks bad optics and also counter assault which could do damage....Santorum has the new penny shine right now and his performance as I said in the last debates will play heavily into his final result....if he can capture second?....then he is essentially the big winner in NH...third will be "OK" and forth will be the foreboding of the eventuality that he ultimately crater and fail out....but any decent finish for Santorum and he will press on.

Huntsman put a lot of chips in the NH pot and he is trending down....baring some virtually impossible result in the top 3 or 4, he's done and will very likely close his campaign down after NH...

Perry has already chalked up NH as a loss and is moving onto to SC...he still has a decent war chest and is wise to blow off NH because he won't finish for shit there...if he cannot pull off a very good finish in SC at least threatening second place...he will close up shop after SC and be done before FL...barring some major shift in the force, he's also finished at this point, he just has the money to press on to SC and little else.

NH won't mean a whole lot unless there are upsets...

Romney win expected so he just maintains his steady Eddie and it's his race to lose position.
Paul may finish second, but also likely to place third, but any result won't mean squat to his kooktard followers and everything from second to forth will be a shrug Zzzzzzz for him. He will press on into SC and FL because he always overstays anyway.
Santorum needs to finish well and his polling IS on the rise. IF he captures second or third he gets a very positive result because his previous numbers were single digit shit. RS is likely to take second or third IMO.
Gingrich is staggering around 3rd or 4th and if can push past either Paul or Santorum than NH will bode well for him...that is unlikely to happen IMO and he's far more likely to finish 4th...if Huntsman does happen to out place him?...that's the death bell beginning to swing toward a tolling for Gingrich...if he finishes forth he can justify it and press on, but staggering.

So that should be the top 4 there...how they shuffle up will be the key...Romney is the win expected so the real play is the candidates following and how they shake out into positions with Ron Paul being the least critical as to how he fares...


BTW on a side Ron Paul note you Ronulans should be happy with his third place showing in Iowa because that was the best strategic finish he could have hoped for...as I explained in another past post he needs to fly under radar while still finishing in contention for as long as possible...because once he hits the radar?...he's going be annihilated as soon as anyone or anything actually engages him with questions and lime light. He won't be doing any third party run either because he knows full well that will destroy his sons career and he isn't going to do that.

Ron Paul was a zombie from the start who just hasn't fallen over yet...sorry kids...in your hearts you know it's true..and him falling out and over is only a matter of time. His driving force at this time and from the beginning has been to get his Libertarian "message" into the debate...IMO he has done that well enough and while he will overstay as I said, and has been his MO all along....it's a forgone conclusion that he is an "also ran" and he can only hope that he can avoid being turned into comic relief at some point...that's why you won't be seeing him engage in any assault on anyone beyond his 3 super pacs taking a few pot shots...if HE engages any one of the other candidates in public?....you had better believe they are locked and loaded ready to obliterate his kookass at will...trust me when I tell you he is well aware of that....so when you scratch your heads saying "C'mon Ron! hit them on that!" and wonder why he doesn't?....that's the reason...not some BS, oooh the PTB "got" to him...he's no fool and he's thinking about his legacy going forward and doesn't want that turned into a clown show...

Reality can be hard...I am understanding of that...sorry...

SHR, Quite impressive! I respect your analysis. You are probably quite right. But, but, but...............

The world is in a much different place right now. People are speaking out and saying, "enough is enough".

Americans have been acting like children that were abused. .... hiding and trying to stay out of trouble and focus of the angry master. Hypnotized even in believing that nothing can be done. Their puny little voice would not be heard.

Americans are getting slammed from all sides. Mortgages, food prices, hazardous environment, their pockets, their jobs.... their overall lifestyle. Not just hundreds or thousands.... Millions!

I was deflated for a brief moment from your well worded and light comments. But then I thought, gee, that is just like what the PTB do to us all the time! Deflate any hope and then the drive and enthusiasm is lost... beat down. Stamped out. Didn't work for me I am happy to say.

I will keep my thoughts on the day that we will see a different kind of presidency... one for the people and a government of by the people.

I wish you well, and thanks for all you do here.

In '08, Huckabee dropped out (on cue) before Iowa assigned their delegates, so that's not a surprise. I'll be interested to see if Paul drops out early like he did in '08. That, IMO, would close the case on Paul in my book. You may well be right on that count (that no one of significance will be left but Romney; although I think of him as an insignificant neocon hull).

Btw, thanks for the "constructive criticism" karma

I grew up in the streets of NYC, in neighborhoods where the veneer of the matrix is quite thin and to parents who were very much awake. I know full well that I am supporting what looks to be a lost cause, but I want to help keep his message out there while he has at least a few toes on the bully pulpit. I'm not a "Paultard", though I may play one on GLP (at times). And I will continue to do so if only to help wake people up to the message of liberty and the importance of preparing for the next American Revolution.

Thanks for your political analysis; as usual, I agree with a lot of it. I still think it's very much up in the air who emerges as the biggest challenge to Romney, and - yes - I'm still hoping it will be Paul. I don't think he'll overstay his welcome. He is a political realist. If anything, he may drop too soon (for his supporters) as in '08.

USA Today's aggregate poll shows Paul well ahead of the pack in New Hampshire. Romney is polling for a landslide. With any luck (or honesty), Paul will take second.

[link to www.usatoday.com]

Added: Select NH from the drop-down menu - the link takes you to the main poll (national).

Last Edited by Girl Genius on 01/06/2012 01:52 PM

Thank you and I never mean to deflate peoples enthusiasm when it comes to the elections...quite the opposite in fact. I see the overall picture as this:
People get an almost manic level of enthusiasm over Ron Paul, it's unrealistic IMO and they face the inevitable crash when he doesn't win eleventy bazzillion to 4...while being enthusiastic is a very good thing...I hate to see the crash when the real world does it's inevitable thing...so here is all I can tell you....

All these politicians, Obama too, that get this rock star like fan base going absolutely berzerk are bound to let you down in the end...just like Obama has for the vast majority...they cannot live up to their hype, they never can...and much like the backing track failing out and you hear the real voice is not the epic angels singing voice that you might have thought it was...all these iconic politicians just cannot live up to the perceived image that people tend to believe in.

So don't feel bad if one doesn't "live up"...because none of them can...and also try to realize this...

This political chess game for control and direction is a strategic and long war...the scale and scope of it is well beyond any one single election cycle...so while those are important...they are battles in a very long war, it's a long and often difficult haul and there are no quick and easy solutions. If we are smart...and we win the battles which allow us to move the direction of this country back on the course which I personally wish to see it back on...a far more constitutionally conservative and pro business/ wealth creation course...then you will see me, once the war's tide has turned, be more berzerkly happy than any of the Ronulans....trust in that...;)

NG - 22.6% - huh? lol

That's national - select NH from the drop-down menu.

Huckabee dropped when he was beat and there was no chance to win...so I guess that was the que...lol..

Wasn't my karma...but I looked and it seems constructive enough I suppose...I get more negatives over Ron Paul than anything else...as often caustic as I am...it doesn't bother me and if I am shaking people up a little?....well...can't ask for more than that.

We'll see how close I am on NH...one thing good about elections is that we actually do get the see real life outcome vs people like me that take a stab at predicting it...and hey...ya never know...I could be completely wrong!...lol...I've been wrong in the past...once...about some trivial little thing...I think?.....ROFL!!!!!!!


BTW I also grew up in NY....good luck to your guy and good luck keeping his "message" alive...

Also ARG just released new polling data on SC and Romney has surged past Newt...heavily...with Santorum also Surging...and now tied with NG in second...the remaing pack in single digits with Paul in fourth...

Here yas go...

[link to americanresearchgroup.com]

Last Edited by SHR on 01/06/2012 02:04 PM

Ahhh SHR... felt much better this time! You have a fairly high consciousness level and I appreciate seeing that shine in you! You have much to offer.

Ya know, I lost interest in Obama early on during his campaign. I didn't see any substance and felt his rock star performance was simply that. All polish and no sincerity. I was right. Am not happy about that either!

So, now that the masses see through Obama and many are disappointed, they will look to less polished candidates. Hopefully it will be a sense of "fool me once" attitude. RP is not polished and doesn't use teleprompters. He speaks from the heart. Looney, yes! Of course! We are not used to that straight talk! We are used to being coddled, deceived and told all is well when it IS NOT!

RP can't do all things he is suggesting.... Congress has some say! RP is not a fool! If he gets the votes, at least that sends a message to our legislators all is not well with the direction they are going.

I want to see you bezerkly happy!! Actually everyone!

Let's see if Obama can survive the 2 (I think anyway) court cases. We could use another Nixon shock factor right about now in this country. The President should not be above the law!

OHHH!! haha - much different! TY

Good break down; I am far from a Paultard myself and the "Ronulans" name, actually like that one :) I am happy Paul has taken the stage and gotten the message out to the masses; people are waking up and talking about real issues.

I really think "economically", we are to far gone and any one of the candidates, should they be elected to POTUS, will have a hell of a time reversing the legislation already set in place. To do so without the approval of Congress, would be using dictorial powers to their advantage, just as the other POTUS's before them.

Here's to some real hope and change in the right direction.....Ron Paul 2012.....Blessings to you

Last Edited by BBQ Guy on 01/06/2012 04:46 PM

No wonder I like you, even though we don't agree on a lot of stuff! Yeah, I hope we can keep the message alive, but I'm not holding my breath. Hubby and I are ready for anything. We aren't going quietly into the night ... cheers :)

Last Edited by Girl Genius on 01/06/2012 08:54 PM

Haha - yeah, I prefer Ronulans, too. I think we know what we're up against -- and it ain't pretty!

Good ole Judge!

This paragraph is 100% ignorant hideous fail.

A) There is no "rock star" type following of Ron Paul. People like him for what he STANDS FOR, dumbass.

B) People who were into Obama are shitforbrains know nothing zombies in 100% of cases. People who are into Ron Paul understand WTF is going on.

There is NO comparison possible in any way whatsoever between Obama and Ron Paul, nor between their supporters.

So how about you

Latest results from my newest college football message board national republican poll.

37 total votes.

Ron Paul - 46%

Mitt Romney - 27%

John Huntsman - 11%

Newt Gingrich - 11%

Rick Santorum - 3%

Rick Perry- 0%



Rom Paul supporters; keep your heads up & remain positive. Don't let the shills & naysayers get to you. They represent the evil nation wreckers. Even the ones who appear to be moderate or level headed.

We will win this. Keep the faith.

Vote for America this election!

Vote Ron Paul 2012!

I totally agree with you, NAM. I resent the comparison.

--

Last Edited by Girl Genius on 01/06/2012 10:37 PM

Suuure...I guarentee if I asked you WTF was going on and why RP was so great a counter to it I'd get some bone/ mirror head response.

Frankly I think much the same from most RP supporters...here's a simple question...without looking it up...what is the ABCT, how does it pertain to RP and what is it's current status?

I will virtually guarantee not one of you reading this know the answer.

Lol....how about playing both "The One" ads side by side and getting back to me?....

I try and keep the fresh hits comin....Ronulans is the latest...lol...

Well man I know we face serious issues...never surrender.... we've been through a lot as a country...we CAN still turn this around if don't let it go much longer.

Sorry, but I am so right and you are so wrong, there is no way to bridge the gap.

SHR - I don't have TV and I don't know the ads you are referring to. I would rather think that there may be some attempts to paint Paul supporters like Obots, but I'm really out of the mainstream there so can't comment. I just don't think most are like that. I know I'm not. I see a lot of faults with Paul, actually. Nobody's perfect. He's a lot better than the others and truly a sincere and honest person. Really, the most important thing to me is that Ron Paul is the only candidate that has vowed he would not start an undeclared war or engage in ad hoc "strikes" and would abide by the constitution and pare back big government.

I really don't know much about economics, but I do feel that Paul is off-base on a number of specifics having to do with monetary policy. For example, a strict gold standard won't work ("they" own the bulk of the gold, for starters) and any currency that carries interest is prone to corruption and misuse, so I don't agree with making the Fed part of the treasury. We need something else (perhaps something similar to "colonial scrip" as discussed in the Money Masters). Anyhow, it's not my area. I'm really not sure what the fine points of his economic policy are but it doesn't matter for now -- he is one man and will not rule by decree. It's like you're in a speeding train about to derail and are worried about holding the drink glasses steady on the tables lest they spill. I'm not looking at him to fix everything - he can't. It's enough that he will abide by the constitution and put the breaks on and possibly avoid the looming train wreck.

ABCT (Austrian Business Cycle Theory) or Austrian Economics as I've heard it called. Without going into a lot of great detail, it basically states that the boom/bust cycle of an economy are created by a central bank artifically expanding the money supply using low interest rates and easy credit through the money creation system. This couldn't happen with a currency based on a commodity of some sort, usually gold and/or silver thus ending the inflationary and resulting deflationary cycles. Ron Paul is a student of Austrian Economics and Ludwig Von Mises, hence his rallying cry of end the fed and sound money.

I'm not sure what you mean by what is it's current status so i'll take a stab at it.

It's not really used at all as far as I know. All nations that have a central bank have adopted a Keynesian Economic philosophy as put out by Mayard Keynes, or at least some derivative of it. It differentiates in that it proposes a fractional reserve system with the money supply and credit being controlled by a central bank. The problem is that the people controlling the central bank end up, either by accident or design, trying to control market forces through policy. This usually creates bubbles in the market place and curtails the action of the free market. The market, however, is a force that cannot be easily controlled through policy and ends up trying to correct itself through inflation, recession, depression and recovery. If they don't let the cycle run through by trying to stop the depressionary cycle, you end up with the mother of all economic of epic fails...hyper-inflation, as witnessed by the Weimar Republic of 1930's Germany.

I could spend hours running through the entire gambit of the pros and cons of each school of thought, but I'm a little rusty on my economic theory these days and some of what I have proposed above may not be 100% accurate, but that is the gist of what I remember of it. To keep it simple for all us "Paultards" out there, just bleat this, "von Mises good, Keynes bad, mkaaay."

Great!
Maybe with President Paul we can make permanent a Gilded Age and relieve corporations of those pesky rules and regulations.
It will be so great.....if you're a millionaire....