IRAN CLOSING HORMUZ STRAit soon? WW3, OIL to the roof or GLP EFFECT? I WANT YOUr opinion

The Iranians will announce a pending limited closure of the strait in line with the opportunity for the Europeans and Americans to reverse their sanctions on the Islamic republic. This will be sometime in mid-September.

The Iranian President will deliver a speech at the UN chronologically outlining the events that led to the current crisis. This will fall on deaf ears in Washington and most of Europe (and Israel).

The Russians and Chinese will mediate but not budge. They, in concert with Iran, will blame the West for the escalation of tensions.

Between October 19-23 the strait will be closed following a diplomatic deadlock. Western warships will give a 24 hour ultimatum to the Iranians to re-open the strait. Russia will up the ante by sending warships into the Persian Gulf outside regular drills for the first time.

Vladimir Putin will warn that the only way out of the confrontation is for the West to drop the sanctions (which will bring Iran to re-open the strait). Reluctantly, the West will do this.

The same retreat in hostilities, however, will not be followed by Israel. They will see this as a PR triumph for Iran and may take unilateral action against Iran shortly afterwards (unless Russia decides to send the sophisticated anti-aircraft missiles it had previously denied to Iran).

It's a tricky situation with so many variables. There isn't enough room on this entire site to list them all.