ARCTIC BLAST COMMING !!! Feb 5 may be coldest since 1996!!!

-13F wind chill here at the moment.



Last Edited by Ozone Baby on 01/22/2013 11:56 AM

Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Cold shot(s) after Feb 1 likely to outdo this one

1 minJoe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Weathermans day ( Feb 5) may be coldest since 1996 @GMBnumba2 birthday

You were so right on this cold snap, hate to think there is a worse one in Feb coming up. But it seems every time you talk, it's true. I remember you hyping Sandy and I was pretty shocked that you were spot on!

Any chance we WON'T see another frigid streak or do we really need to brace ourselves?

Thank you for your words, i'm not hyping and i don't like hyping. my objective is the oposite, because if you have the right information you can take the right measures... so yes i think it will come again... i hope i'm wrong!

[link to www.youtube.com]

Is it here early, Luis?

The Big Chill: unusual stratospheric phenomenon is bringing frigid cold to U.S

Posted on January 23, 2013by The Extinction Protocol

January 23, 2013 – CLIMATE – An unusual event playing out high in the atmosphere above the Arctic Circle is setting the stage for what could be weeks upon weeks of frigid cold across wide swaths of the U.S., having already helped to bring cold and snowy weather to parts of Europe. Forecast high temperatures on Monday, Jan. 21, from the GFS computer model. This phenomenon, known as a “sudden stratospheric warming event,” started on Jan. 6, but is something that is just beginning to have an effect on weather patterns across North America and Europe. While the physics behind sudden stratospheric warming events are complicated, their implications are not: such events are often harbingers of colder weather in North America and Eurasia. The ongoing event favors colder and possibly stormier weather for as long as four to eight weeks after the event, meaning that after a mild start to the winter, the rest of this month and February could bring the coldest weather of the winter season to parts of the U.S., along with a heightened chance of snow. Sudden stratospheric warming events take place in about half of all Northern Hemisphere winters, and they have been occurring with increasing frequency during the past decade, possibly related to the loss of Arctic sea ice due to global warming. Arctic sea ice declined to its smallest extent on record in September 2012. Sudden stratospheric warming events occur when large atmospheric waves, known as Rossby waves, extend beyond the troposphere where most weather occurs, and into the stratosphere. This vertical transport of energy can set a complex process into motion that leads to the breakdown of the high altitude cold low pressure area that typically spins above the North Pole during the winter, which is known as the polar vortex. The polar vortex plays a major role in determining how much Arctic air spills southward toward the mid-latitudes. When there is a strong polar vortex, cold air tends to stay bottled up in the Arctic. However, when the vortex weakens or is disrupted, like a spinning top that suddenly starts wobbling, it can cause polar air masses to surge south, while the Arctic experiences milder-than-average temperatures. During the ongoing stratospheric warming event, the polar vortex split in two, allowing polar air to spill out from the Arctic, as if a refrigerator door were suddenly opened. For reasons I don’t think we fully understand, the changes in the circulation that happen in the stratosphere [can] descend down all the way to the Earth’s surface,” said Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) in Massachusetts. As the polar stratosphere warms, high pressure builds over the Arctic, causing the polar jet stream to weaken. At the same time, the mid-latitude jet stream strengthens, while also becoming wavier, with deeper troughs and ridges corresponding to more intense storms and high pressure areas. In fact, sudden stratospheric warming events even make so-called “blocked” weather patterns more likely to occur, which tilts the odds in favor of the development of winter storms in the U.S. and Europe. –Climate Central [link to theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com]

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

GFS 00z cold again in Midwest to start February, make it stop. [link to twitter.com]

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

GFS 00z extended-range cold, Chicago below zero for several days, highs around 0 -- ugly stuff. [link to twitter.com]

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

@houcivicwxguy Whitehorse goes to -50°F. [link to twitter.com]

8 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Worst wind-chills I could find mid-next-week for Dakotas in the minus (-) 60s °F [link to twitter.com]

8 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

It's usually cold in the Yukon -- but 60°F below normal is a bit unusual. 5-day cold-dome builds & busts loose into US [link to twitter.com]

8 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

20-member GEFS 18z ensemble mean 0-16 day panels show progression of Arctic/Alaskan blast [link to twitter.com]

8 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

GFS 00z extended-range cold, Chicago below zero for several days, highs around 0 -- ugly stuff. [link to twitter.com]

January 24-27 Winter Storm
By Andrew at 6:06 PM

NOTE: Midwestern/Ohio Valley cities could see flurries, little to no accumulation expected.
An accumulating snow event will occur in the Mid-Atlantic in coming days.

It appears that two pieces of energy will combine in the Mid-Atlantic, a byproduct of a clipper system coming from Canada and another piece of energy from the Plains. These two will combine offshore (or very close to the ocean) and produce an accumulating snowfall across the region. Amounts are expected to be on the lighter side, with a trace to 2 inches expected across Pennsylvania, Maryland and eastern Kentucky, to name a few states. Ohio may also get in on the snowfall. Two to four inches could fall in West Virginia and Virginia as a result of this disturbance. Again, nothing major, but enough to bring out the snow plows and shovels to do some clearing.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

January 31 - February 2 Potential Winter Storm
By Andrew at 5:47 PM

I am monitoring the potential for a winter storm from the fluid timeframe of January 31 - February 2.

It does appear that a storm system will be delivered upon the Southwestern US in the closing days of January, and will subsequently move east. This storm was discussed in an earlier post, but again, a strong storm system could eject from the Rockies and center itself over Gary, Indiana, as shown in the above forecast for January 30th. This forecast displays mean sea level pressure anomalies, with cool colors displaying low pressure areas and warm colors indicating high pressure areas. However, look closely at that second low pressure system that has formed right over Brownsville, Texas. This storm system appears to be on the tail of the dominant storm system of Gary Indiana, and that's where our story begins.

The 500 millibar pattern for this timeframe suggests a strong high pressure system will form over the northeast Pacific and West Coast in a classic pattern called the 'positive Pacific-North American pattern', or Positive PNA for short. In a positive PNA, high pressure forms in the aforementioned areas, and, as a response to the jet stream shooting north to get around the high pressure, it must collapse down into the southern Rockies as a response, creating a very favorable set-up for storm systems impacting the Central and East US. This idea is displayed well in the 500mb pattern shown above, which is valid for the morning of January 30th.

Now, the storm system is clearly shown by the dip in the colors on the map above (depressions in lines and colors show low pressure systems, arching patterns indicate high pressure), and is placed in western Texas. Let's revert back to our positive PNA pattern. The first part of the pattern (where high pressure was placed out west) was already explained. But, there is another, more important factor that concerns storm tracks of systems emerging from the Southwest. In a positive PNA, high pressure will tend to form in the Southeast US. This persistant high pressure system is also called the 'Southeast Ridge', a name that lives in infamy for those in the Northeast, as it diverts storms away from that region. However, the phrase lives in glory for its winter storm capabilities in the Central and parts of Eastern US. I drew three arrows in the map above; the single arrow represents a rough sketch of what the system would do if it abides by the positive PNA, while the set of arrows that crawl up the East Coast demarcate what the system would do if it managed to bypass the Southeast Ridge.

There is one more thing that is helping the Midwesterners and Ohio Valley folk in this situation- a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The negative NAO involves high pressure being present over Greenland, but its the placement of that high pressure that matters. You see, if the high pressure system is west of Greenland, it is appropriately named a 'West-Based negative NAO'. while high pressure centered east of Greenland results in the 'East-Based negative NAO'. If you look closely at the same 500mb map, you see an intrusion of blues in eastern Greenland. These are higher height anomalies, indicating high pressure, then indicating an east-based negative NAO. Why do we care about this? Because an east-based negative NAO enhances the potential for storms over the Midwest and Ohio Valley, while a West-Based negative NAO encourages the storm formation over the Northeast, which are known as Nor'easters.

This is going to be a very potent time period, and the dates of this are very fluid. We will need more model runs to either confirm or deny the potential of such an event occurring, but right now, things are looking up for the snow-starved Midwest if this model forecast is to come true.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

January 29-31 Potential Winter Storm
By Andrew at 5:47 PM

There is potential for a winter storm during the timeframe of January 29-31. The models have been hinting at this for quite a while, so let's discuss.

This system will be shot out of the central Plains to begin the whole fiasco. The GFS model forecast of mean sea level pressure anomalies shows that, by the morning of January 30th, the storm system has developed into a very strong system centered over Gary, Indiana. This would provide snowfall to the Upper Midwest and parts of the Northern Plains. However, there is another low pressure system that has developed just around of Brownsville, something we need to keep an eye on. That low pressure system, should history be an indicator of what could happen beyond this image, could develop into a coastal storm if it keeps a low profile as it moves along the Gulf Coast and is strong-armed into moving north in response to high pressure already east of Cuba. But, beyond this image, I am not confident in model forecasts that could explain it.

So, using what little information we have, there is potential for a storm system to develop and possibly bring some accumulating snow to parts of the Plains and Midwest.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Snow-depth Friday afternoon skims Atlanta metro, hopefully will stay north -- temps in the upper 30s warm enough rain [link to twitter.com]

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Minnesota & Int'l Falls living up to icebox nickname. Temps 40°F below normal overnight. Actual temps -25°F to -30°F [link to twitter.com]

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

@ScottDimmich 72-hr forecast accumulation for ECMWF deterministic. Individual ensembles are in the works. [link to twitter.com]

Thanks for tracking this, chief.

Luisport (OP) could u plz send us some warm air soon. we r sick of this frigid mess.its byond brrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.i work outside,mostly. its so cold boss pulled me from my normal work.
seriously, glad u r keepin watch n all of us updated.

I will do my best!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
912 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013

WVZ037-038-046-047-241900-
/O.EXT.KRLX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-130124T1900Z/
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SUMMERSVILLE...RICHWOOD...CRAIGSVILLE...
COWEN...MARLINTON...ELKINS
912 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-PRINCE GEORGES-
ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-LOUDOUN-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-
SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-
938 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013

.NOW...
ANY LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES OR PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO
AN END BY 11AM ACROSS THE WASHINGTON DC METROPOLITAN AREA.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO PERHAPS
AROUND 20 DEGREES...SO NO MELTING IS ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE ROADS
WILL REMAIN SLICK THROUGH THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH...KEEPING WIND CHILLS AROUND 10.

$$

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
913 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013

WVZ035-036-039-040-241630-
RALEIGH-FAYETTE-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BECKLEY...OAK HILL...FAYETTEVILLE...
BUCKHANNON...PHILIPPI...BELINGTON
913 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013

SNOW SHOWERS...OF VARY INTENSITY...COULD LINGER DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS BARBOUR...UPSHUR...FAYETTE...AND RALEIGH
COUNTIES. SOME LOCAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...OF AN INCH OR
LESS...ARE LIKELY DURING THE 9 O`CLOCK TO NOON PERIOD.

ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO DRIVE SLOWER AND SAFER ON UNTREATED SNOW
COVERED ROADS.

THE LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MIDDAY...WITH
EVEN SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING THROUGH.


$$

KTB

looks like tomorrow is snow day for alot of states [link to www.srh.noaa.gov]

[link to weather.rap.ucar.edu]

Weather Underground‏@wunderground

Dr. Masters says, "U.S. deep freeze continues; dangerous air pollution episode in Utah" [link to wxug.us]

January 29 Severe Weather Event
By Andrew at 4:18 PM

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a risk of severe thunderstorms for January 29, 2013.

Before we get into this, it is worth noting that outlining severe weather risk areas this far out is very rare. The Storm Prediction Center will only do such an outline if confidence is high that a severe weather event (possibly significant) could occur. Some of the worst severe weather outbreaks have been predicted at this same forecast period of 6 days away (although it days Day 7 (D7), it is actually 6 days away because Day 1 is referred to as the present day). I'm not saying this will be an incredible weather event, but such a long range forecast certainly says something.

We'll start off with the general synopsis. A strong, positively tilted storm system will be pushing east after coming into contact with the Southwest. The phrase 'positive tilt' refers to the highest vorticity values being positioned towards the southwest. This is good news, as negatively tilted storms (highest vorticity pointing towards the southeast) are known to be more volatile as far as severe weather goes. Nevertheless, this storm system will be pushing east towards Texas. This image is valid for the evening of January 29, which is when we expect this severe weather event to be ongoing. Seeing as how high pressure is in place over the Southeast, I would not be surprised to see the storm system take on a neutral (vorticity maximums pointing to the south) or even negative tilt as it rolls up the hill of high pressure. This could cause more severe weather chances for states in the Southeast in the future, but that remains to be determined. One bone I have to pick with this forecast is I am not comfortable with the storm system being so far from the predicted severe weather zone. I can see a band of vorticity readings in southeast Oklahoma that would attempt to provoke severe weather, but in order to see this risk verify, I would like to see the system further east, closer to the severe weather zone.

Upper level winds show great strain being inflicted upon the jet stream for the same forecast timeframe of the late hours of January 29th. The storm system is clearly shown by the blade of quiet winds in the Northern Plains into the Rockies. Again, you can see the positioning of this 'blade' depicts a positively-tilted storm system. Winds reaching above 120 knots are forecasted across much of Texas and northern Mexico in response to this great strain, not unlike a rubber band being stretched. As the system moves east, the jet stream should be provoked to tilt this system to a more neutral angle as high pressure tries to push in on the West Coast. Anyhow, strong upper level winds exist in Arkansas at this time, the predicted zone of severe weather. However, again, the strongest winds are centered further west in Texas, making me revisit the question of whether this risk should be moved further west in accordance with more favorable upper level winds in that area.

But all that doubt in the placement of the severe weather risk area subsides when you take a look at the 700 millibar forecast map for the same timeframe as the above two maps. This forecast shows wind speeds in the lower levels of the atmosphere, in the domain of the nocturnal lower level jet stream (LLJ). The LLJ is a well-known instigator of severe weather and even tornadoes overnight. So if you're wondering how the atmosphere can sustain that energy when the sun has gone down, there's your answer. There are poised to be strong winds in the lower level jet stream over eastern Kansas and parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. This does ease many fears about the Storm Prediction Center being wrong in their placement of the severe weather risk, but I'm persuaded to believe that the risk should be pushed a tad west, more in line with west AR, east OK and east KS for the maximum risk areas.

Finally, we take a look at deep layer shear, or DLS values for the same evening of January 29th timeframe. The higher shearing values indicate a more favorable environment for tornadoes in the spring, summer, and any time the climate is prepped for severe weather. If this forecast comes to fruition, I see no reason why a substantial tornado threat would not exist in the aforementioned areas in Kansas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. We see very elevated valies over these same areas, even extending into Illinois and Wisconsin.

I expect the system to be too far west to comply with the Storm Prediction Center's outlook, and positioned my highest risk area over the regions where highest shearing would occur. I made sure to include where more favorable upper level winds would be positioned to aid in severe thunderstorm development, and lower level winds were also factored into this map. While the dewpoint gradient may be a bit further east than this highest risk I am projecting, I believe this is an accurate depiction of my thoughts at the moment, which are fluid as forecasts continue to come in.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

Wednesday, January 23, 2013February 1-3 Potential Winter Storm
By Andrew at 5:30 PM

Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits
The latest GFS forecast has an accumulating snowfall in the forecast from February 1 to February 3rd.

The above image shows the precipitation type, mean sea level pressure (black contour lines) and 1000-500mb thickness (dashed and colored contour lines) for the morning of February 2nd. This would then change the storm title to February 2-3, but the event is likely to put down precipitation beginning on the 1st. It appears a modest storm system will be pushing out of the Rockies, leading to precipitation across the North Plains and into the Midwest. I do not doubt this could be the result of two separate pieces of energy, and such a scenario would result in quite a storm further east. There is high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic, something that would result in the storm track being pushed further north and west, favoring a Great Lakes Cutter storm scenario.

Moving ahead 12 hours, the storm has intensified in the Great Lakes as I expected, and heavy snow is ongoing across the Midwest, Great Lakes and Upper Midwest while a rain event occurs in the Ohio Valley and Gulf Coast regions. Judging by the liquid equivalent snow legend on the right-hand side, it would not surprise me to see upwards of 4 inches of snow in many areas of the Midwest and Great Lakes if this forecast verifies, which isn't that likely at the moment. Strong Arctic high pressure filtering in through the Plains would provoke lake effect snow in the storm's wake.


Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits
Another 12 hours into the future, we see the storm has further intensified, and is dropping large amounts of snow across much of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes into southern Canada. A glance at the liquid equivalent legend for the hardest-hit areas would mean nearly 10 inches of snow could be falling within a 12 hour period if ratios remain the typical 10 inches of snow to 1 inch of rain. Any higher, and we would be talking about over a foot of solid snow on the ground in parts of the Ohio Valley. Rain is overspreading the Northeast area as a result of the warm sector impacting the region with...well, warm air.

So, this is just another fantasy model forecast that won't happen, right?

NOT SO FAST!

The Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC) is involved here. The LRC includes a repeating pattern of weather disturbances and high pressure systems that repeat, or cycle, every 40 to 60 days. The cycle length varies year by year, and no winter's LRC pattern is the same. This winter, thanks to the dedicated folks at the AccuWeather Forums, it has been found that the cycle length is 53 days. If we rewind February 3rd back 53 days, we get December 11th. Now, look below and see the comparison between the forecasted 500mb height anomaly on February 3rd (top) and the observed 500mb height pattern from December 11, 2012 (bottom).

HPC
What a coincidence- they are almost a perfect match! You have the deep low pressure in the North Plains in both, slight high pressure in the Pacific Northwest in both, and even high pressure slightly displaced from the Southeast on Dec. 11, but still just offshore on Feb. 3. This proves that the LRC does indeed have a role to play here, and if we look at observed precipitation for that time period in mid December, we find that, should a similar precipitation pattern play out, over half a foot of snow for the Ohio Valley and parts of the Midwest.

Very exciting things happening here, so stay tuned!

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

RT @nwscolumbia: Temperatures have warmed up to 60 in Columbia and 63 in Augusta through noon! Big change tonight with arctic air arriving.

25 minAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Snow band going through Chicago. Radar: [link to ow.ly]

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

The evolution of this Arctic outbreak [link to ow.ly]

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Snow and slippery travel from Chicago/ Detroit to DC/ Richmond [link to ow.ly]