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January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!

 
Luisport

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01/21/2013 10:13 AM

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January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm (Updated 1/20)
By Andrew at 10:18 AM
There is potential for a winter storm from January 24th to January 27th across much of the nation east of the Rockies. Let's do a model analysis and see what the latest forecasts hold.

Shown above is the GFS forecast, valid for the morning of January 25th. We can see the storm system is centered in eastern Tennessee, with precipitation also shown. Snow is shown in blue, and rain is forecasted in the traditional green colors. We see the system is moving relatively eastward towards the Mid-Atlantic, dropping some accumulating snow as it goes. This snow would most likely accumulate in the northern Mid-Atlantic, with cold air still in place following this weekend's cold outbreak and additional cold air following in the wake of this system.


It should be noted that the GFS model has been swaying from a north track (snow hits the Midwest and northern Ohio Valley) to a south track (snow impacts the areas shown above), reducing my trust in its credibility. Now that we have seen the southern track, let's take a glance at the north track.

The highly-respected ECMWF model and its ensemble system (commonly called the EPS) are supporters of the northern track at this time. The ECMWF takes the system a bit north of its ensembles, putting the storm system in south central Indiana. Enough cold air would be in place to theoretically give snow to many of the areas described in the small paragraph above these images, like the Midwest, Ohio Valley and into the Lower Great Lakes. The EPS takes the storm system just a few hairs south of the operational ECMWF model, but nonetheless would keep accumulating snow within the same relative realm of the ECMWF model itself. A quick glance at ECMWF snow accumulations on a pay-to-view site agrees with my above thoughts in a swath of accumulating snow in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, to name a few states.

The Canadian GGEM model, usually not one to be in sync with other models, appears to be lining up relatively well with the ECMWF model, The low pressure system is a bit further north on the GGEM model, and temperatures are warmer than the ECMWF model, but the Canadian model can still theoretically be defined as in the north track. Although I don't really care for the GGEM on account of its messy track record, it's in one of the tracks at this time, and thus deserves to be noticed.

At the moment, looking at various teleconnections, I am seeing the Pacific-North American index go negative during this timeframe. This means negative pressure anomalies (low pressure) on the West Coast (hence negative PNA), which causes high pressure to build in the East. This would most likely prevent suppression of this storm, giving some strength to the North Camp. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will be in a phase favorable for making storms stay away from the Deep South and instead taking a more northern route like the ECMWF/EPS are suggesting. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which, in its negative phase can cause Nor'easters, will be too weak to help this situation out.

My preferred forecast: ECMWF/EPS solution. Snow accumulates in Midwest, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Heaviest totals hit Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Michigan, among others. Accumulations range from 2 inches to 6 inches. Confidence: 60%


Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]
Luisport (OP)

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01/21/2013 10:14 AM

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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

A 2nd, more potent snowstorm for Thursday night and Friday. #Boston #NYC [link to ow.ly]
Luisport (OP)

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01/21/2013 10:15 AM

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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm - 1/20 Evening Update
By Andrew at 4:58 PM

This is the current situation unfolding with the potential winter storm that would fall within the timeframe of January 24-27. I have displayed the two most reliable weather models' ESTIMATED tracks (I say estimated because I believe the ECMWF is actually a bit further south) for this storm system. There is a very messy agreement that the storm will happen, but that's where the line is drawn. While the ECMWF projects widespread accumulations, much of which falls within the blue 'Potential Accumulating Snow' area, the GFS is much more restricted on snow, with only parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast benefitting.

At the moment, out of consistency, lower cyclone track error and overall better verification in recent runs than the GFS, I'm feeling much better siding with the ECMWF than the GFS. I feel that the GFS is just too wobbly for my liking, while the ECMWF has a swath of accumulating snow down pat in a situation much more fit to happen with frigid Arctic air to the immediate north. Additionally, the ECMWF's ensemble system is in good agreement with the blue ECMWF track, greatly enhancing the credibility of such a track. On the contrary, the GFS' ensemble system is disorganized with this system and should not be taken at face value- it faces some of the same issues as the GFS model itself.

At the moment, I will side with the blue track, but I will not map out accumulations due to model disagreement that I am not comfortable deciphering for the time being.

Exciting times ahead for many in this nation!

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]
Anonymous Coward
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01/21/2013 10:17 AM
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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
What are the chances I will see snow in Virginia near Richmond? I really want to use my 4wheel drive.
Watching the world
Crypt Watcher

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01/21/2013 10:19 AM

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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
Thank you Luisport!

Sure do appreciate you!

hi
Ignorance is bliss until reality bites you in the ass.

I bury the dead.
ANNONYMOUS
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01/21/2013 10:19 AM
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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
5a

Thanks for the info L!
Luisport (OP)

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01/21/2013 10:19 AM

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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
RyanMaueRyan Maue 19 jan


Heart of coldest-air in a while for Great Lakes, actual 850 mb temps of -37°C -- worse of it 23°C below normal [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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01/21/2013 10:22 AM

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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Two snow events are in the works for the Northeast's heavily populated I-95 corridor this week. More info: [link to ow.ly]
Luisport (OP)

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01/21/2013 10:22 AM

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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

The initial Arctic blast arrived, but the Great Lakes are looking at even colder lake-effect snow much of the week. [link to ow.ly]
Luisport (OP)

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01/21/2013 10:23 AM

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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
Thank you Luisport!

Sure do appreciate you!

hi
 Quoting: Watching the world


Thank you so much! This weekend was so tuff... we get 140km/h wind gusts!
Luisport (OP)

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01/21/2013 10:26 AM

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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
346 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-08 3-220915-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWAS SEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LE NAWEE-MONROE-
346 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE AROUND
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE BETWEEN M-59 AND I-94 CORRIDORS.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN ZERO AND 5
ABOVE...LEADING TO WIND CHILLS AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WIND CHILLS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO...AS
HIGHS ONLY REACH AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

LATER THIS WEEK...A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

$$
Luisport (OP)

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01/21/2013 10:27 AM

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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
BIG SNOWSTORM HERE....URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
944 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013

OHZ011>014-089-PAZ001>003-212245-
/O.CON.KCLE.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130123T1200Z/
/O.CON.KCLE.WC.Y.0001.130122T0300Z-130122T1600Z/
CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON...
JEFFERSON...ASHTABULA...ERIE...EDINBORO...MEADVIL LE
944 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY...

* ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND INLAND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BE SLOW AND HAZARDOUS WITH HIGHLY
VARIABLE ROAD CONDITIONS.

* TEMPERATURES...4 TO 20 ABOVE.
Luisport (OP)

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01/21/2013 10:28 AM

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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
snow spreading into the northeast............URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
411 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013

...ACCUMULATING SNOW DEVELOPS BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES AT
TIMES TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TUESDAY MORNING...

MAZ005-013-017-020-RIZ001>008-211715-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WW.Y.0003.130121T2100Z-130122T1500Z/
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...FOXBORO...
NORWOOD...TAUNTON...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...FOSTER...
SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...
NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND
411 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 AM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND AND ALL OF RHODE
ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE A NARROW SWATH OF 3 TO 6 INCHES NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE AT TIMES TONIGHT. THE SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF SOMETIME TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY
TONIGHT AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POOR AT TIMES. THE TUESDAY
MORNING RUSH HOUR MAY BE IMPACTED.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.
Luisport (OP)

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01/21/2013 10:29 AM

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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH...AND BRIEFLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE-HALF MILE. MELTING FROM ANY SNOW SHOWER
COULD QUICKLY ICE OVER AS ARCTIC AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
Anonymous Coward
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01/21/2013 10:44 AM
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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
bump thanks for this thread to keep me informed...im in the ohio valley and supposed to be going back home to s.e. michigan middle of the week by car...i had no idea this storm was coming because we dont have tell u vision...my gosh, am i stuck here?
Watching the world
Crypt Watcher

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01/21/2013 10:57 AM

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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
Pinned! 5 stars

banana2
Ignorance is bliss until reality bites you in the ass.

I bury the dead.
Luisport (OP)

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01/21/2013 11:00 AM

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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
Pinned! 5 stars

banana2
 Quoting: Watching the world


red_heart thank you so much!!!
littlemiracles

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01/21/2013 11:01 AM
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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
Thanks Luis!
besensible
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01/21/2013 11:09 AM
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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
If you think a 2 to 6 inch snowfall is
"the potential for a significant winter storm" you have no job and are bored, or ,just like creating drama. Be sensible will you?
4Evergirl
Earthbound for now...

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01/21/2013 11:11 AM

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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
Stay east, please with this one....I still don't have power at my house from the wind blowing 55mph gusts from Saturday night....Good to be a prepper, though...

Generator running and wood stove keeping everything nice and toasty....
Definitely not made for this world--at least not this century.

...you are dangerous to everyone---not because you are ungifted, but because you embrace evil with your teachings. In so doing, in trying to be kind, to be unselfish, in trying to be nonjudgmental, you allow evil to become far more powerful than it otherwise would. You refuse to see evil, and so you welcome it among you. You allow it to exist. You give it power over you. You are a people who have welcomed death and refuse to denounce it. You are an empire naked to the shadow of evil. Terry Goodkind, NAKED EMPIRE
MHz

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01/21/2013 11:18 AM
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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
To get a drop this fast usually means some fast moving air along the Rockies.

[link to www.theweathernetwork.com]

Would the yellowish areas hold lots of moisture that would fall if the temp dropped 10-15 deg?

[link to www.theweathernetwork.com]
Luisport (OP)

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01/21/2013 11:18 AM

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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
Stay east, please with this one....I still don't have power at my house from the wind blowing 55mph gusts from Saturday night....Good to be a prepper, though...

Generator running and wood stove keeping everything nice and toasty....
 Quoting: 4Evergirl

Really? I lost power, cell phone and whater friday with the ciclone,and only get it two hours ago!
Luisport (OP)

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01/21/2013 11:29 AM

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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Snow (and rain) showers Monday night can make for dangerous travel for Midwest, mid-Atlantic & New England [link to ow.ly]
MHz

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01/21/2013 11:50 AM
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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
Stay east, please with this one....I still don't have power at my house from the wind blowing 55mph gusts from Saturday night....Good to be a prepper, though...

Generator running and wood stove keeping everything nice and toasty....
 Quoting: 4Evergirl

Saw a neat little lamp on one of the latest episodes of Moonshiners. Use a short pre-made candle that can be picked up anywhere and split a tin-can partway down the side so you can open it up like two windows and that is how you load the candles in and the device directs the light in one direction and with some experimenting the lowest a chimney and inlet holes can be determined as it is also supposed to act like a little stove and double burning the exhaust makes the air less toxic. 6" of snow is not a big deal until the wind just keeps blowing it around for days on end, from the ground to 20' the visibility is zero, above that the sky is blue. Having a bit of hose that will slip onto your exhaust pipe means you don't have to get out and keep digging that spot clear should you get stuck.

Anybody make a 220v genset that I can run off my vehicles tire (like a dyno), for the times I want to use the stove and dryer and welder. All my lights are 12v so the battery charge means the vehicle has to run that amount anyway
Astral Goat
From the deep space petting zoo...

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01/21/2013 11:57 AM

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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
I told you about this weeks ago however my forecast places it 2nd week in Feb

Last Edited by Astral Goat on 01/21/2013 11:59 AM
--> [link to nextgenfm.com]

There was a nuclear war. A few years from now, all this, this whole place, everything, it's gone. Just gone. There were survivors. Here, there. Nobody even knew who started it. It was the machines, Sarah.

We used to look up at the sky and wonder at our place in the stars, now we just look down and worry about our place in the dirt.
Neb

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01/21/2013 12:02 PM

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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
What about Cincinnati luisport???
goldielucks

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01/21/2013 12:16 PM

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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
Ooooh a winter storm, now THAT is pin worthy.

jerkit yawnrolleyes
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 32725783


It is because the weather channel is full of bullshit, and some people don't have tv. Read the thread opinion tard
"Democracy is nothing more than mob rule, where 51% of the people may take away the rights of the other 49%." ~ Thomas Jefferson

Mrs. Powel of Philadelphia asked Benjamin Franklin, “Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?”
With no hesitation, Franklin replied, “A republic, if you can keep it.”
Anonymous Coward
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01/21/2013 12:32 PM
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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
Will I get to use my snow blower on the jersey shore finally ?
Luisport (OP)

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01/21/2013 12:35 PM

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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
[link to icons-ak.wunderground.com]
Anonymous Coward
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01/21/2013 12:37 PM
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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
How many inches of snow can we expect in St. Louis, Missouri? I'm in town for business and don't want to be trapped in this shithole.
Luisport (OP)

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01/21/2013 12:38 PM

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Re: January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm!!!
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 05:08 PM GMT em 21 de Janeiro de 2013

A blast of Arctic air more intense than anything experienced during the winter of 2011 - 2012 has descended over the Midwest U.S., bringing the coldest temperatures in nearly two years. The low hit -2°F Monday morning in Des Moines, Iowa, marking the first day since February 10, 2011 that Des Moines had dropped below zero. The 710 consecutive days the city had gone without reaching 0°F was the longest such streak on record (previous record: 368 straight days, beginning January 23, 1954.) In Minneapolis, the mercury dropped to -10°F Monday morning, the coldest day since February 10, 2011. With the high temperature not expected to get above zero Monday, the city will likely snap its record-long streak of just over four years without a high temperature above 0°F. The last time the high temperature at the Minneapolis airport was below zero was on January 15, 2009, when the thermometer climbed to only -6°F. Strong winds accompanying today's cold blast have dropped the wind chill to a dangerously cold -40 to -50°F across much of Minnesota and North Dakota. The wind chill bottomed out at -51°F at Langdon, North Dakota at 4:35 CST Monday morning, thanks to a temperature of -22° combined with a wind of 17 mph. The wind chill hit -46°F at nearby Devils Lake and -51° at Hamden. The lowest wind chill in Minnesota was at Le Center: -43°F. Brr!

Jeff Masters
[link to www.wunderground.com]

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