DEMPSEY: North Korea Putting Nuke On Missile Classified, 'Must Assume Worst Case'... NK Analyst, 'War on Peninsula is 70-80%'!!!

Those are the kind of odds I like!

Ummmm.....why? Sounds ominous.

DL!!

The man who brings real doom

Ill take those odds. Double down and hit me!!! Come on twinkie boy hit the fucking button!

Link to the article -

Steve Herman @W7VOA 3h Huanqiu Shibao: Central Party School Prof. Zhang Liangui says 70-80% chance of war on #Korea peninsula - is.gd/nA6yge (中文)

5*s!!

Zhang Liangui is professor of international strategic research at the Party School of the China Communist Party Central Committee. In 1968 he graduated from the Kim II Sung University in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. He is an influential analyst and is considered one of Beijing’s top North Korea experts.

[link to www.chinasecurity.us]

Awesome doom percentages! Bring it!

B.S. 70-80% is that a confidence Interval?

What test for that - Chi Square?

Good I'm getting serious doom blue balls here.

If China can't stop them, then what the fuck is fatboy kim waiting on? Did he eat the napkin the launch codes were written on?

The ballistic missile launch will mark the end of DPRK exercises, and the beginning of the active phase of the current campaign.

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

What does that mean exactly?

Interesting thoughts by another prominent .mil analyst. I suspect he may be correct -



Raymond Pritchett @Galrahn 39m
The ballistic missile launch will mark the end of DPRK exercises, and the beginning of the active phase of the current campaign.




Raymond Pritchett @Galrahn 12m
@SeanMichaelMc the ballistic missile launch is not the end. Whatever the end is for DPRK, that's not it, there is something else to follow.

I wish someone would dust off the AIM program and send him an IM

China cannot only stop them, they can devastate them, starve them to death or do whatever else they wanted to do to their pathetic little lackey. Use your brains!

Can't wait to see little barry bastard boy's next move.

China needs to put an end to this now before something major happens!
Any conflict on the penninsula that included "nuclear" weapons would result in China's 1.2 Billion people economy crashing to a halt and then chaos would ensue. NO gov't can control that many people at one time!
They need to step in now.

Everyone knows blacks are lousy tippers.

Lil' Kim is waiting for Barry to make a statement, but he's out of luck...he's still stuck on the 15th hole, since yesterday, he already missed 1683 birdies, that guy can't shoot hoop nor golf, poor excuse of U.S president he is.



Last Edited by Bill Paxton on 04/10/2013 12:31 PM

Orville Schell:

Ambassador Lord's response on whether China is making as forceful an effort as it could to control the D.P.R.K. certainly has the virtue of brevity -- shorter even than "Jesus wept," from the Gospel of John. And, while I do not disagree with the short and sweet approach of his answer, I also think that it is incomplete. Why? Because it does not hint at the fact that as reluctant as China has been to overtly pressure the D.P.R.K., there has been a tremendous amount change in the China-North Korea zeitgeist.

The Chinese are unsurpassed when it comes to indirection and President Xi Jinping's Boao talk was a masterpiece of just such indirection. In it, he was clearly criticizing someone, but without naming any names. An in-the-know Chinese colleague visiting from Beijing coyly asked me this morning if I thought Xi was criticizing the Americans and the Japanese ... OR "the North Koreans." When I said that I hoped it was "the North Koreans" and not us, he laughed and said, "We are really fed up with them. But, the reality is that nobody can control them."

After waxing elegiacally about "this balmy season with clear sky and warm coconut breezes" at Boao, Ji went observed that "our world is far from peaceful," and that "No one should be allowed to throw a region and even the whole world into chaos for selfish gains." Although such rubric would also cover the U.S.'s "preemptive warfare in Iraq" or even China's own belligerence toward Japan in the East China Sea and the Philippines and Vietnam in the South China Sea, while Xi never mentioned North Korea by name, it didn't take a lot of guessing to discern that he was targeting Pyongyang.

"While pursuing its own interests, a country should accommodate the legitimate interests of others," he concluded. As oblique as he was, this sort of indirect directness would have been unimaginable during the Hu Jintao era. But what it made it a tantalizing moment was that it suggested that the U.S. and China might actually come to find a new interface of common interest over the D.P.R.K.'s errant behavior.

When I raised this interesting prospect several weeks ago after China joined the recent U.N. sanctions regime against Pyongyang, John Delury posted, noting that Cui Tiankai, Beijing's new ambassador to Washington, almost immediately countered to say that "it's very inaccurate to say China and the United States have reached a deal on imposing sanctions on North Korea."

Perhaps. But then, one must always allow for the possibility that the good Ambassador was simply trying to defend those -- possibly like himself -- who might espouse such a policy from hard-liners in the Chinese military who are less offended by the D.P.R.K.'s increasingly embarrassing, anti-social global behavior.

Former U.S. Ambassador to Beijing, Jon Huntsman, weighed in after Xi's Boao speech calling his comments unprecedented. "It suggests to me, as I've watched the ratcheting up of frustration among Chinese leaders over the last many years, that they've probably hit the 212-degree boiling point as it relates to North Korea," he told CNN on Sunday.

I tend to agree with Huntsman, that the Chinese are reaching something of a kindling point in regard to their stubbornly retrograde neighbors. Pyongyang is increasing an embarrassment to Beijing, which wants to be seen as a viable world power, not part of a two-bit alliance of backward satrapies. They may not want to see South Korean and U.S. troops on the other side of the Yalu River, but they also do not want to see their "economic miracle" go up in a mushroom cloud somewhere nearby. So, I'd say, stay tuned. This story is in process!

And, as to Winston Lord's two letter assessment, "No," in regard to whether or not Beijing has been making a convincing effort to control Pyongyang, I'd add a few letters: "Not yet." But, I say this with several caveat: even if Beijing does end up applying much more pressure, it may not be immediately evident to us. And even if the Chinese end up being willing to make a much more forceful effort, we need to be ready for it to be far less successful than we now imagine it might be. My read is -- and here I agree with my Chinese colleague cited above --that the Chinese have nowhere near as much ability to control what the D.P.R.K.'s leaders do as we like to imagine.

Final question: Once that Beijing card is played -- if it ever is -- what then?

Michael Kulma:

I agree with Ambassador Lord that the short answer to this question is "no." The economic lifeline is certainly important to this conversation, but the political relationship and the long friendship between China and the D.P.R.K. is also relevant, and would lead one to believe that China's sway could/should be stronger. That said, China does seem to be trending toward stronger reaction in both word and deed. Another test by North Korea in the days or weeks ahead will also be another test of how far China is willing to go down the path to doing all that it can do.

Why does every announcement say NK missile "test?"

By shooting a missile high over SK, and setting off a nuke in the atmosphere, the resulting EMP will fry electronic circuits and chips in fighter jets, radars, defensive missiles, etc. This will make SK defenses much less effective. Then NK can shoot artillery fire to take out SK bases, send in ground troops, tanks etc. for a full-on offensive.

I'm pretty sure China can do whatever China wants to....

If Nuc weapons impact China... we will send them to Canada. You have the space... and need more Chinese restaurants anyway.

i read the full article from him an hour ago on german news, is there an english version? everybody here should read this, this is not just this empty sentence, seems like he really knows what he is talking about!