ISON Webcast Update Thread! *Going to pick up the pace if government shutdown occurs*

YES its fake as you should well know.


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Last Edited by IWASTHERE on 09/18/2013 12:10 PM

No, it's not.
:isonbw1:

Well, this below is more credible than your stuff:

[link to fbcdn-sphotos-a-a.akamaihd.net (secure)]



Last Edited by IWASTHERE on 09/18/2013 12:25 PM

[link to www.heavensgate.com]

Thank you for all your info Astro, but look at this link, what do you have to say about this, on Ison?





[link to modernsurvivalblog.com]

They had an estate sale here for all those creepy peoples things..

It was written by someone with no clue about comets or celestial mechanics.

"What about this… ‘what if’ the nucleus of the comet explodes into smaller chunks as it swings around the sun? If the chunks survive, on what trajectory will they be? Could we be in danger? Of course no one knows. It hasn’t happened… yet."

A) Meteor showers happen all the time, and the well-known ones are all far more dense than anything we'll encounter from a single pass by a comet with an earth MOID of about .05 AUs.

B) No it won't hit us if it breaks up at perihelion as it "swings around the sun." We're not in danger. In order to put any piece of the comet on an earth-collision course at perihelion would require more than 50 km/s delta-V in a sunward direction. That's insane.

[link to img12.imageshack.us]
57590 next to "Tot" is the total delta-V needed to put it on an earth collision trajectory in m/s. That's 57.59 km/sec. Not happening. To put this in some perspective, that's about 5 times as much velocity as the total velocity the Apollo command module had at entry interface coming back from the moon. To get that velocity required a rocket the size of a skyscraper to propel a payload smaller than the space shuttle. So no, even if ISON breaks up at perihelion, its fragments are not going to receive over 50 km/s delta-V in a sunward direction. Not even close.

Thank you very much astro, I wanted to know your input on that link, Thank you for clearing up everything, you're the best. <3

Check this website [link to www.cometison2013.co.uk]

So what's the point Doc?

As the man said, why not go watch in on TV?

Nothing to see here!!

[link to www.youtube.com]

Astro please explain how you know the nucleus isn't made of dark matter and the tail made of cyanide. Nancy Lieder said that it will poison us with the tail! She said that a well known NASA agent is telling lies when he says it's a normal comet. Is she talking about you?

Stalker troll, go back to your ghost town of a ning. There is probably cyanogen gas in the tail but it's too tenuous to affect us and we're not going to pass through the tail anyway. As for the nucleus being made of "dark matter," if it were then we wouldn't be able to see the coma or tail of the comet since that would be made of dark matter too.

Just make sure all your batteries charged, software updated and back ups in place. We don't need another NaSA type blackout.

Well it's currently still raining here, so it doesn't look promising for tomorrow morning. I may have to wait until Friday morning, but if so, so be it. In case it does clear up, here is the ephemeris for ISON from my observing site on the 19th. I'll be talking about this some more during the webcast to show that ISON's orbit has not changed as is being claimed on youtube and elsewhere lately.
[link to dropcanvas.com]
ISON's orbit and the resulting ephemeris were calculated using the astrometric data excluding any observations from the month of September. So if the orbit has recently "changed" as claimed, these coordinates shouldn't work.

If the weather clears by 4:30 am eastern I'll post a separate thread for that morning's webcast, otherwise I'll try again Friday morning.

Still too much cloud cover in the east, I'll try again tomorrow.

You know, if this is going to be your continuing ISON tracking thread, you may want to consider:

To preclude the above sort of thing, you could post a daily ephemeris from say 01Oct 2013 through 31Dec 2013 generated either by JPL or MPC so when the claim is made again (and you know it will be made again ... Elenin!!!!) you can point to the date stamped post and ephemeris.

You could edit your OP with an addendum so it is up front - first thing.

Generating the ephem. when the claim is made and comparing it to the one in the OP generated in Sept. will exhibit only minor arcsecond changes as the orbit is continuously refined.

Those dates include most of what the woo²s would consider "ominous" dates: Mars close approach, Earth close approach both ways, crossing Earth's orbit inbound and outbound, crossing the ecliptic (north to south... "OMG!!!! It's the Chartreuse CatChina!!!!"), perihelion, etc.

Just a thought...

Have fun.


R.

Not a bad idea. One problem though is that the claim's already been made so if I generate it from JPL or MPC now they could just say, "well the new orbit accounts for the change." That's why I'm generating it myself from FindOrb while excluding any recent data, but the results do agree with JPL to within a couple arcseconds which is all that really matters. I do like the idea of a daily ephemeris though. I think I'll generate one that runs for that time period on the half hour. That should give me enough points to make my point at any time in the future.

Yeah, it won't help with the current woo, but it would pose a problem for future woo.

Fro example: On 02Oct a kOOk starts posting that ISON's orbit has changed!!!!!!.
There is a 19Sept dated post on this thread with an ephem for 02Oct and beyond. It is a small matter to show that observations made after 02Oct agree with the ephem posted here on 19Sept proving that the orbit has not changed.
For written observations you can merely select the independent amateur reports to the MPC and for images you can solve astrometrically - both showing RA and Dec matching the 19Sept values.

kOOk will have to do some heavy hoaxing to get around the ephem record and numerous independent reports showing ISON exactly where predicted on 19Sept.

Have fun.


R.

Alright, here is my computation of the orbit with ephemeris for my usual observing location with a sample rate of about every half hour from now until January.
[link to dropcanvas.com]
The results do agree with JPL to within a fraction of an arcsecond for the current time and to within a few arcseconds by January. This despite the fact that I deliberately omitted every astrometric observation from the month of September. So no, the orbit hasn't changed. I'll use that file to find ISON for my webcasts to show that it works.

Last Edited by Astromut on 09/19/2013 08:21 PM

I'll post an update at 4:30 or so tomorrow morning (eastern time). Right now it's still completely overcast, but the clear sky clock forecast still calls for complete clearing at midnight tonight through the morning tomorrow. We'll see. If it clears I'll do the next ISON webcast.

Very good. You know these dishonest tards will most likely make the claim again.

Allow me to post the JPL ephem. for Oct 01 - Dec 31 2013 here on GLP so no one can accuse you of swapping the ephem file:

JPL/HORIZONS - - - - - - ISON (C/2012 S1) - - - - 2013-Sep-19 06:54:20
Rec #:903910 (+COV) Soln.date: 2013-Sep-16_13:13:54 # obs: 4266 (2011-2013)
Ephemeris / WWW_USER Thu Sep 19 06:54:20 2013 Pasadena, USA - - / Horizons

Initial FK5/J2000.0 heliocentric ecliptic osculating elements (au, days, deg.):
EPOCH= 2456333.5 != 2013-Feb-10.0000000 (CT) - RMSW= n.a.
EC= 1.000004233506487 - QR= .01249404771654018 - TP= 2456625.2787711076
OM= 295.7244706878164 - W= 345.5171498294994 - IN= 61.9338829062995

Earth - Geocentric:

Date__(UT)__HR:MN - R.A._(ICRF/J2000.0)_DEC ------ r ------------- delta
2013-Oct-01 00:00 -- 09 34 34.63 +17 37 29.8 1.651029884483 2.15073815511332
2013-Oct-02 00:00 -- 09 36 43.19 +17 25 01.3 1.632109702574 2.12132341137355
2013-Oct-03 00:00 -- 09 38 53.99 +17 12 12.5 1.613080079230 2.09181128007472
2013-Oct-04 00:00 -- 09 41 07.12 +16 59 02.6 1.593938441632 2.06220668844423
2013-Oct-05 00:00 -- 09 43 22.71 +16 45 30.3 1.574682106719 2.03251486557905
2013-Oct-06 00:00 -- 09 45 40.87 +16 31 34.6 1.555308274973 2.00274136758425
2013-Oct-07 00:00 -- 09 48 01.73 +16 17 14.3 1.535814024363 1.97289209889072
2013-Oct-08 00:00 -- 09 50 25.43 +16 02 28.0 1.516196303208 1.94297332745093
2013-Oct-09 00:00 -- 09 52 52.11 +15 47 14.4 1.496451922017 1.91299169474977
2013-Oct-10 00:00 -- 09 55 21.94 +15 31 32.0 1.476577544441 1.88295422351006
2013-Oct-11 00:00 -- 09 57 55.09 +15 15 19.2 1.456569677398 1.85286832700164
2013-Oct-12 00:00 -- 10 00 31.73 +14 58 34.3 1.436424660297 1.82274182384277
2013-Oct-13 00:00 -- 10 03 12.07 +14 41 15.3 1.416138653301 1.79258296135273
2013-Oct-14 00:00 -- 10 05 56.32 +14 23 20.5 1.395707624478 1.76240044947000
2013-Oct-15 00:00 -- 10 08 44.70 +14 04 47.5 1.375127335774 1.73220350663499
2013-Oct-16 00:00 -- 10 11 37.45 +13 45 34.2 1.354393327598 1.70200191874852
2013-Oct-17 00:00 -- 10 14 34.83 +13 25 38.0 1.333500901895 1.67180611227261
2013-Oct-18 00:00 -- 10 17 37.13 +13 04 56.4 1.312445103496 1.64162724216245
2013-Oct-19 00:00 -- 10 20 44.64 +12 43 26.5 1.291220699532 1.61147729458861
2013-Oct-20 00:00 -- 10 23 57.69 +12 21 05.3 1.269822156652 1.58136920355555
2013-Oct-21 00:00 -- 10 27 16.62 +11 57 49.5 1.248243615750 1.55131698005259
2013-Oct-22 00:00 -- 10 30 41.81 +11 33 35.7 1.226478863859 1.52133585264985
2013-Oct-23 00:00 -- 10 34 13.66 +11 08 19.9 1.204521302806 1.49144241944858
2013-Oct-24 00:00 -- 10 37 52.60 +10 41 58.3 1.182363914162 1.46165481264918
2013-Oct-25 00:00 -- 10 41 39.10 +10 14 26.4 1.159999219928 1.43199287827408
2013-Oct-26 00:00 -- 10 45 33.66 +09 45 39.6 1.137419238295 1.40247837450409
2013-Oct-27 00:00 -- 10 49 36.82 +09 15 32.9 1.114615433711 1.37313519261823
2013-Oct-28 00:00 -- 10 53 49.17 +08 44 00.9 1.091578660310 1.34398960476329
2013-Oct-29 00:00 -- 10 58 11.34 +08 10 58.0 1.068299097594 1.31507054283870
2013-Oct-30 00:00 -- 11 02 44.02 +07 36 18.2 1.044766177012 1.28640991270205
2013-Oct-31 00:00 -- 11 07 27.94 +06 59 55.0 1.020968497794 1.25804294762214
2013-Nov-01 00:00 -- 11 12 23.89 +06 21 41.6 0.996893730054 1.23000860428010
2013-Nov-02 00:00 -- 11 17 32.74 +05 41 31.0 0.972528502675 1.20235000349719
2013-Nov-03 00:00 -- 11 22 55.40 +04 59 15.9 0.947858272954 1.17511491625515
2013-Nov-04 00:00 -- 11 28 32.85 +04 14 48.6 0.922867174189 1.14835629382101
2013-Nov-05 00:00 -- 11 34 26.16 +03 28 01.5 0.897537836432 1.12213283959461
2013-Nov-06 00:00 -- 11 40 36.46 +02 38 46.9 0.871851174355 1.09650962028832
2013-Nov-07 00:00 -- 11 47 04.95 +01 46 57.2 0.845786134442 1.07155871498463
2013-Nov-08 00:00 -- 11 53 52.92 +00 52 25.3 0.819319391516 1.04735990114700
2013-Nov-09 00:00 -- 12 01 01.72 -00 04 55.1 0.792424981434 1.02400137488496
2013-Nov-10 00:00 -- 12 08 32.75 -01 05 09.5 0.765073852626 1.00158049818963
2013-Nov-11 00:00 -- 12 16 27.48 -02 08 21.6 0.737233313195 0.98020455957120
2013-Nov-12 00:00 -- 12 24 47.43 -03 14 33.1 0.708866341938 0.95999152902803
2013-Nov-13 00:00 -- 12 33 34.10 -04 23 43.1 0.679930719584 0.94107078614165
2013-Nov-14 00:00 -- 12 42 49.03 -05 35 47.0 0.650377918784 0.92358380398894
2013-Nov-15 00:00 -- 12 52 33.68 -06 50 36.2 0.620151664742 0.90768478504068
2013-Nov-16 00:00 -- 13 02 49.49 -08 07 56.9 0.589186037316 0.89354127396793
2013-Nov-17 00:00 -- 13 13 37.73 -09 27 29.4 0.557402920469 0.88133482558274
2013-Nov-18 00:00 -- 13 24 59.57 -10 48 47.6 0.524708498847 0.87126189899502
2013-Nov-19 00:00 -- 13 36 55.97 -12 11 18.0 0.490988321643 0.86353530641498
2013-Nov-20 00:00 -- 13 49 27.72 -13 34 20.2 0.456100136712 0.85838681147929
2013-Nov-21 00:00 -- 14 02 35.48 -14 57 05.9 0.419863109180 0.85607193546779
2013-Nov-22 00:00 -- 14 16 19.87 -16 18 40.0 0.382040879285 0.85687888234763
2013-Nov-23 00:00 -- 14 30 41.81 -17 38 00.3 0.342313456746 0.86114519760441
2013-Nov-24 00:00 -- 14 45 43.09 -18 53 57.4 0.300227239832 0.86928956368423
2013-Nov-25 00:00 -- 15 01 27.72 -20 05 11.0 0.255097490511 0.88187572347968
2013-Nov-26 00:00 -- 15 18 05.02 -21 09 58.7 0.205791371843 0.89975417237326
2013-Nov-27 00:00 -- 15 35 58.81 -22 05 31.1 0.150136693086 0.92443553899262
2013-Nov-28 00:00 -- 15 56 28.78 -22 43 29.0 0.082582713746 0.95945160822858
2013-Nov-29 00:00 -- 16 23 17.64 -19 52 50.8 0.032205030309 0.97616739260291
2013-Nov-30 00:00 -- 16 21 22.40 -16 20 29.6 0.114502986707 0.91250970866644
2013-Dec-01 00:00 -- 16 19 11.81 -13 59 05.4 0.175675739457 0.86804387647474
2013-Dec-02 00:00 -- 16 17 23.83 -11 56 01.3 0.228163114834 0.83089687244201
2013-Dec-03 00:00 -- 16 15 54.24 -10 00 53.2 0.275454839022 0.79802936228828
2013-Dec-04 00:00 -- 16 14 39.46 -08 09 21.4 0.319145032901 0.76809554902800
2013-Dec-05 00:00 -- 16 13 36.99 -06 19 03.2 0.360129570069 0.74036078766276
2013-Dec-06 00:00 -- 16 12 45.05 -04 28 25.8 0.398974861941 0.71437695228466
2013-Dec-07 00:00 -- 16 12 02.36 -02 36 21.8 0.436067656368 0.68985253336197
2013-Dec-08 00:00 -- 16 11 27.94 -00 41 57.5 0.471686807818 0.66659109227512
2013-Dec-09 00:00 -- 16 11 01.06 +01 15 32.7 0.506041726738 0.64445863390700
2013-Dec-10 00:00 -- 16 10 41.16 +03 16 49.0 0.539294721710 0.62336487077520
2013-Dec-11 00:00 -- 16 10 27.81 +05 22 28.2 0.571574813044 0.60325180563248
2013-Dec-12 00:00 -- 16 10 20.69 +07 33 04.8 0.602986702668 0.58408644246080
2013-Dec-13 00:00 -- 16 10 19.60 +09 49 10.5 0.633616835283 0.56585594261513
2013-Dec-14 00:00 -- 16 10 24.38 +12 11 15.2 0.663537631383 0.54856427135508
2013-Dec-15 00:00 -- 16 10 34.98 +14 39 45.4 0.692810526887 0.53222975485326
2013-Dec-16 00:00 -- 16 10 51.43 +17 15 04.6 0.721488208325 0.51688316983245
2013-Dec-17 00:00 -- 16 11 13.81 +19 57 31.3 0.749616290617 0.50256610108040
2013-Dec-18 00:00 -- 16 11 42.33 +22 47 18.4 0.777234599303 0.48932936858511
2013-Dec-19 00:00 -- 16 12 17.27 +25 44 31.3 0.804378166112 0.47723136958198
2013-Dec-20 00:00 -- 16 12 59.04 +28 49 06.5 0.831078012939 0.46633621618254
2013-Dec-21 00:00 -- 16 13 48.19 +32 00 49.9 0.857361777019 0.45671158649677
2013-Dec-22 00:00 -- 16 14 45.46 +35 19 15.6 0.883254215177 0.44842625284693
2013-Dec-23 00:00 -- 16 15 51.80 +38 43 44.6 0.908777614716 0.44154730767870
2013-Dec-24 00:00 -- 16 17 08.50 +42 13 24.9 0.933952131363 0.43613717421603
2013-Dec-25 00:00 -- 16 18 37.24 +45 47 11.6 0.958796069592 0.43225055736105
2013-Dec-26 00:00 -- 16 20 20.28 +49 23 48.8 0.983326116927 0.42993154819517
2013-Dec-27 00:00 -- 16 22 20.69 +53 01 51.6 1.007557541165 0.42921112740568
2013-Dec-28 00:00 -- 16 24 42.73 +56 39 49.5 1.031504357425 0.43010530578953
2013-Dec-29 00:00 -- 16 27 32.47 +60 16 10.1 1.055179470481 0.43261408810729
2013-Dec-30 00:00 -- 16 30 58.81 +63 49 22.3 1.078594796689 0.43672135618999
2013-Dec-31 00:00 -- 16 35 15.28 +67 18 00.0 1.101761368954 0.44239565649452
R.A._(ICRF/J2000.0)_DEC =
J2000.0 astrometric right ascension and declination of target center.
Adjusted for light-time.
*****************************************

Now, should anyone state the orbit has changed one can merely pull up the Geocentric Astrometric JPL ephem for Oct 01 - Dec 31 2013 @00:00UT each day and compare to this post.
They will be virtually the same.

And because they will be the same, it is legitimate to use the Horizons' ephem at that future time to find the predicted position to compare to that of any observation, since it is shown that the ephem then is the same as the ephem now (Sept 19 2013).

I've a story about the close approach of Toutatis in Sept. 2004 that somewhat mirrors what you are doing and the dishonest fearmongering "truth seekers" that came out of the woodwork... complete with stealing my work and calculations and altering the data and reposting at an alternate woowoo forum to imply I had found an anomaly in the orbit and DOOM was immanent... amongst other outrageous behaviours of the kOOks.

Later.

Have fun.


R.

OK Astro...

1) How many comet pilots does it take to actually steer said Comet ISON?

2) Arrrrrre you going to the mall today?

Weather is a go, 95% clear at the moment. Going to head out now to set up.