UK WEATHER UPDATE: Level 1 issued for parts of Ireland, Scotland, UK, France, Benelux, Germany, Sweden and Denmark!!!

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 16 h
MT @scotlandwx ECMWF 12z extended-range (10-days) has 913 mb Icelandic cyclone -- near top of historical strength [link to twitter.com (secure)]

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 8h
Also Norway getting strong wind gusts from 952 mb extratropical cyclone spinning to west. [link to twitter.com (secure)]

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 8h
Wednesday Warm seclusion extratropical cyclone -- chevron shaped extreme winds > 100 knots along bent-back warm front [link to twitter.com (secure)]

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 8h
@MendyWax that low is followed by another -- and another.


Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 8h
Someone could kindly count all of the low pressures during the next 10-days forecast for NE Atlantic. Very busy storm track

Is this expected to hit UK mainland?

yes, for shure! Do you see the maps?

Not a problem...

A rather high AO index with the polar vortex still placed over Greenland and E-Canada keep intense band of westerlies/southwesterlies in place over N-Europe. Downstream ridge affects most of S/C Europe. The main progressive features will be compact cold-core lows over SE-Europe. One leaving the Ionian Sea to the E around noon with a constant weakening trend forecast and another one approaching the Adriatic Sea during the late afternoon hours with a constant motion to the south.
Another progressive feature will be a developing mid-layer wave, which crosses Scotland, Norway and Sweden during the day from SW to NE.... ... NE-Scotland to SW-Norway ...

A developing wave exits Scotland to the NE during the morning hours and approaches SW Norway around noon. Rich prefrontal BL moisture becomes trapped in the widening warm sector, although warm mid levels keep the stratification stable. Of interest will be the developing tropopause fold along the tip of that wave, which overspreads the NE-ward racing cold front/occlusion. A confined time-frame between 6-12 Z exists, where enhanced convection could evolve along the N-part of that front between NE-Scotland and SW-Norway. Shear would be more than adequate for severe or damaging wind gusts as 850 hPa winds exceed 25-30 m/s. Later on, CAPE diminishes over SW-Norway as onshore moisture decreases. Impressive forcing could keep a forced line of probably broken convection alive for a few more hours/well inland. Ongoing uncertainties with track and strength of that wave and low confidence in an organized/closed line of deep convection preclude any level area for now.

Otherwise, active marine convection is forecast over the Norwegian Sea. Sporadic lightning is possible and a broad lightning area was issued. [link to www.estofex.org]

Yeah just looking now

it will veer north. As most of them do/

Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81 3 h
EC Det is an outlier in terms of depth of the low. However, here's a closer look at the 933mb low just NW of Ireland! [link to twitter.com (secure)]

Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81 3 h
Should be noted that 15 ECMWF members do provide a similar evolution to that of the deterministic model and deep low scenario.

This one scares me. More storm surges and not on the East coast this time! I plan to go shopping soon. Fill the car etc. News reports are going to play this down.. GFS still showing late Wednesday arrival - thought that is the 06Z.

Thanks for this thread!

Take care, i will update this event.

More info needed. What are other models showing?

[link to moe.met.fsu.edu]

So if I am looking at the map right we have a drop of 980 mb, what wind speeds can this system generate? it looks to be the north of the UK from Manchester to Scotland taking in Ireland.

Just had 100mph winds the other week and it was pretty windy last night.

They can only forecast for 5 days and this cyclone my turn and be a threat to all the uk thursday

What are the chances of this system dropping below 950 mb over the north of the UK?

I posted a snapshot of the ens. UKMO has the storm affecting Scotaland. This is preliminary but when you look at the Atlantic you can see another cyclonic low which may deepen and career towards us also.. Heaven knows. The storm could slide further South. As it is, damaging winds are forecast. Further, the next atlantic low could bring us a very stormy Christmas. You, like me will have to watch this low deepen on the day...

980mb is classed as a cat-1 hurricane with winds reaching 100 miles an hour, water surge 5ft. If this drops to below 960 then we are in trouble, cat-3 wind speeds 110-130 miles an hour. This would be a first for the UK

Storm EMILY -

[link to www.independent.ie]

Thanks for the information....
And 5*s as always...

Thank's! Just trying to find more info!

Well done again Luisport, for getting the news out early...

British press now on board.. the Independent --


"UK weather: Forecasters warn of 80mph wind and rain to batter Britain before arrival of ‘Storm Emily’"

[link to www.independent.co.uk]


A hint in there about the storm affecting the South!

[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com] [link to www.tropicaltidbits.com] [link to www.tropicaltidbits.com]

PIN!