The Significance of the Coup in Turkey and the Impact of a Possible Civil War

Yesterday, on July 15th 2016, a faction within the Turkish army initiated a coup with the goal of deposing President Erdogan, abolishing Turkey's government, implementing an interim Peace Council, and establishing a new constitution aimed at ensuring secular government, peace, and the protection of human rights. This coup follows years of increasingly dictatorial and paranoid leadership by President Erdogan and the increasing Islamization of the traditionally secular Turkish state. The coup centered on Turkey's two largest cities, Istanbul and Ankara, with Ankara emerging as the center of the coup and the most pro-coup of the two cities. The coup was quickly condemned by nations worldwide, including the United States and the European powers. As of this writing, the coup has failed.

This event may emerge as one of the pivotal events of the early 21st century. Here, I am going to attempt to draw together the threads of interpretation and prediction and paint a picture as to what has happened and what is going to happen in Turkey, primarily for people who aren't following every single page of all the relevant threads.

BIG PICTURE

For the recent history of Turkey, see here: Thread: The Significance of the Coup in Turkey and the Impact of a Possible Civil War

As the sun set in Turkey, military forces gathered on the bridges crossing the Bosphorus, in the streets of Istanbul, and across the city of Ankara. Thousands of military personnel and supporting armored vehicles shut down the city centers and seized Ataturk airport in Istanbul. Throughout the rest of the nation, military bases went quiet, and helicopters and fighters took to the sky. The State TV station in Ankara was raided, and Turks were greeted with a message telling them that the country was under martial law, that the government had been abolished, that a new Peace Council had been established by the military, and that a new constitution would be drafted. Turkish citizens were asked to stay home in order to avoid injury. From the outset, the coup forces made it clear that Erdogan's dictatorial government was their target, and that a safe, peaceful, and secular Turkey was their goal.

In the confused hours that followed, forces loyal to President Erdogan, including police, military units, and thousands of civilians, fought against this coup and eventually ended it. Sporadic fighting continued nationwide and continues as of this writing. In the aftermath, it has become apparent that this coup was rushed, possibly because it was discovered and Erdogan loyalists were preparing to arrest its leaders, which largely accounts for its failure.

In the hours since, Erdogan has blamed the United States for the coup, which he claims was initiated in conjunction with Fethullah Gulen, a secularist Turk currently living in the US. Neither of these claims has been substantiated.

Erdogan's response has been rapid and overwhelming. He has used the opportunity to arrest and purge military high command, to arrest over 2700 judges, and is currently preparing to expand his Stalinist-like purge to include other areas of the Turkish state such as education and the police. Erdogan loyalists are attacking Kurds and secularists in the streets of Istanbul, and perhaps other cities, and Incirlik airforce base, which houses NATO nuclear weapons and thousands of NATO personnel, is effectively under siege, having had its power cut and a demand issued to surrender the supporters of the coup within the base. Most troubling of all, Turkey appears to be on the brink of civil war, with civilians increasingly fighting in the streets of the major cities.

What, given this situation, is in store for Turkey and for the rest of us?

Factions

There appear to be 5 factions that may emerge from this coup:

(1) The Erdogan government and its millions of Islamic followers.
(2) The remnants of the coup forces, perhaps a few thousand military personnel.
(3) The Kurds, scattered throughout Turkey but centered in the east.
(4) The millions of secular Turks.
(5) The radical Islamic groups such as ISIS.

The path forward?

It seems that there are three general possibilities going forward:

(1) Erdogan suppresses the coup and no opposition emerges.
(2) The coup and its support continues piecemeal for a period of time, but fails to gain popular support.
(3) Popular resistance to Erdogan and his loyalists, who are attacking people in the street, coalesces with the coup forces and a civil war breaks out.

BRAINSTORMING A CIVIL WAR AND THE INVOLVED PARTIES

In what follows, I assume that a civil war begins. However, much of what I say will be true even if a civil war does not break out.

Nuclear Weapons: Erdogan has blamed the US for the coup and currently has Incirlik base in southeast Turkey under siege, which he claims is held by coup sympathizers. This base stations 5000 US personnel and a number of NATO nuclear weapons. NATO forces on the base have two options in the event that Erdogan's forces enter the base. First, they may surrender. If they do so, they risk arrest by Erdogan for helping the coup, and the West will face the possibility seeing soldiers executed by the Turks. Further, this would give Erdogan control of nuclear weapons. Second, they may be ordered to defend themselves and the base, and more importantly the nuclear weapons. If this happens, the West will have to fly additional military personnel to the base and will enter a de facto war with Turkey.

The United States: President Obama has been accused of supporting the coup by several figures in the Turkish government, including President Erdogan, despite quickly offering support to Erdogan yesterday. Obama must decide whether to defend Incirlik or not, and what to say in response to Erdogan's claims.

The EU: Quite likely, Turkey will not be admitted into the EU at this point. It may perhaps leave and may be kicked from NATO. Alternatively, the EU leadership may decide that integrating Turkey into the EU is the most effective way of precluding a future coup.

Russia: Tensions have been running high lately between Turkey and Russia. Russia has a significant military presence in the eastern Mediterranean at the moment, and Erdogan may close access to the Bosphorus in order to weaken Russia's position. If civil war breaks out, the likelihood of this happening increases. However, if the Bosphorus is closed, Russia may send warships into the strait to reopen it, and may even declare some sort of closed peacekeeping zone. This would have the effect of flaring NATO-Russian tensions, and perhaps even cause a West-East showdown over the strait. Let us not forget that Russia now controls Crimea and has positioned itself to exert military power throughout the Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean regions.

Kurds: Attacks on Kurds have already begun in Istanbul and in the east of Turkey. Erdogan has been waging a war against the Kurds for several years in the east. Quite possibility, a Kurdish uprising would be the spark for a civil war. In the event of a civil war, we could expect the Kurdish east to unite and break away, and perhaps integrate to some degree with the Kurdish forces in Syria and Iraq. Should this happen, we would see the emergence of a new national player in the region as well as the breakdown of northern Iraq. This in turn could spur Iraqi advances into Kurdistan and perhaps even Iranian involvement. What is certain is that with the civil war in Syria and with the de facto independence of the Kurds in Iraq, the possibility of a Kurdish breakaway state has never been greater.

Iraq: The Iraqis are currently advancing on Mosul and are driving ISIS back. The question of Iraq-Kurd relations is therefore becoming more significant as the days progress. Iraq has no special interest in the Turkish civil war - it is far more concerned with the Syrian civil war and with access to the Mediterranean trade routes via oil pipelines in Syria. However, if Turkey descends into civil war, ISIS' position will weaken, as support from Turkey will falter, and thus Iraq will be enabled to push strongly west and perhaps initiate a war with the Kurds to reintegrate them into Iraq. Hence, a Turkish civil war could lead to a Turkey-Kurd conflict and an Iraq-Kurd conflict, which would further integrate the Kurds, and further splinter the region. This, in turn, would possibility permit ISIS to regain some measure of control, and we would see both the Islamic State and Kurdistan wedged between Turkey and Iraq.

Iran: The likelihood of an Iranian invasion is small. Iran is vying for prominence in the Islamic world and is pursuing this through proxy wars and covert means. Hence, we would expect Iran to foster a revolt in Turkey and to perhaps aid a fledgling Kurdistan (or, less likely, it would crackdown on Kurdistan to secure its border). Iran would seek to gain more influence in Iraq, which it has been doing for years by supporting the Shia Brigades and unifying them into a cohesive fighting force. But Iranian ambitions would extend no further than that. It would allow the Sunni powers to destroy themselves, and give them a push in that direction.

Syria: A Turkish civil war would relieve pressure on Assad and increase the likelihood that he would end the civil war in conjunction with Russia. In the aftermath, he would likely leave a fledging Kurdish state alone in order to secure the remnants of Syria. However, he would increase cooperation with Russia and secure his Turkish border. Assad could trade reconstruction contracts for Russian military presence. With the threat of a closed Bosphorus, Russia would would need a Syrian foothold to leverage its presence in the region, and if that brings Assad capital to rebuild Syria, then all the better. Syria has moved firmly into the Russian orbit following the Arab Spring, so cooperation with the West seems unlikely.

ISIS: ISIS faces a difficult challenge. First, we can expect them to take advantage of the situation in Turkey and launch more terror attacks. But the breakdown of Turkey would permit Syria to redouble its efforts against ISIS. However, if the Iraqis enter conflict with the Kurds, pressure on ISIS' eastern border, which is currently high, would weaken, and ISIS may be able to retain a foothold in the region.

Egypt: Egypt is a wild card here. It shut down the UN's attempt to condemn the coup, suggesting that it sympathizes with the coup and was perhaps even involved. We will have to watch Egypt carefully.

Greece: A Turkish civil war might lead to a renewal of the Greek-Turkish conflict. It's a slim possibility, but with radical Islamic forces loyal to Erdogan calling the shots in western Turkey, and with their current paranoia, we may see skirmishes. The real challenge arises if refugees begin to enter Greece in the event of a civil war. We may see Greece shutting its border and shooting on Turkish civilians, which would bring the Turkish army into the equation, an escalation of border skirmishes, and so on.

Refugees: If a Turkish civil war begins, two things will follow with respect to refugees. First, the Turkish wall against refugees will collapse and we will see millions of Kurds, Syrians, and Iraqis flood into southeast Europe. Tensions will run high, and we will see skirmishes in the region. Second, millions of Turks will flee Turkey and enter Europe. We may see, in short, something like 10 million Muslims entering southeast Europe in the next year or two.