I'm back - more on Gustav

Change your avatar.

Full of himself isn't he.


Do you remember when he said he was leaving and not coming back? GUESS WHAT HE LIED!!

Remember when he wanted to charge for the same weather reports we can all get for free from the NWS?

How about that illegal pyramid scheme?

Man the GLP crowd is rough. If this guy (who is not qualified to be doing this anyways) was wishcasting a Cat 5 UTTER DOOM/GLOOM/DESTRUCTION/HYSTERIA/CHAOS storm, everyone would be agreeing because that what GLPers want.

When he does the opposite, the mob comes out because they can't deal with the idea that they won't get to see their much hoped for DOOM.

One of the keys with Katrina wasn't strength at landfall, but how long it stayed a Cat 5 over the Gulf, giving it plenty of time to build a huge storm surge

Also East of New Orleans is the worst for it. Not West. Lake Ponch is to the NORTH. Katrina did that in perfectly...

Read carefully what I said above. Katrina was a Cat 5 for a very long time. It built up huge waves for that period and the surge was very bad. This isn't building as much surge and probably won't. The West track it will push the water North in Lake Ponch, NOT South like Katrina and into N.O. disaster areas.

A West hit is much better than an East hit for New Orleans.

I'll say any damn thing i want, Bitch.

Let me clarify.

West hit is much better to save the city than an East hit. To some of you better = more doom.

Did you see O's link?

THIS IS KEVIN MARTIN AND YOU BETTER LISTEN TO ME NOW OR I WILL THROW A HISSY FIT

Whether you are right or wrong about landfall, you still have to consider rainfall and other crap that comes along with a hurricane. It wouldn't have to make a direct impact on NO to be "the storm of the century" and wreak some serious havok. Heck, it doesn't even have to be a major hurricane either. I would far rather people sensationalizt it beforehand so people GET OUT than play it down.
Katrina wasn't supposed to be a big deal either, remember? They weren't sweating, then that guy from the hurricane center called Nagin in the middle of the night and told him he had a bad feeling about it. He was on the news saying he had never called anybody like that before in the middle of the night but he didn't want to wait because there wasn't a lot of time to get evacuations started. Anybody remember hearing about that?

No what about O's link.

Just it isn't about weather forecasting. It's about topography upon landfall. Katrina was East and shoved water South into the City.

This will hit West and shove water North. Very good track for New Orleans.

If I kept the forecast going West like my posts said then what would that show? It would show laziness and disrespect to all posters here on the Gulf Coast. If new information is gathered I MUST report it, REGARDLESS if it ruins my first forecast on it. It's not about getting it right the FIRST time, It's about getting it right before the event happens.

Indeed...! :)

Noble words, sir! Kudos!!

NHC still projects CAT 4 later today and at landfall. I also am curious why it's thought a Cat 3 is not a serious storm?

It's the track, not intensity. The topography of the landfall area affects how dangerous the storm can be.

Strengthening rapidly and track has been revised to fall just east of NOLA then to make westerly turn after landfall tomorrow morning as a strong cat 4......

Well I hope it does land somewhere that allows for limiting the damage, but it's only about an 80 mile average error now.

You mean West of NOLA?

Dry air is wrapping in from the southeast.. It is killing the east side of the storm...

[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]

Looks to be modeling West of NO, but the consensus is that makes it worse for them as they are on the so called 'dirty side' of the storm.

is that Kevin Martin?

Or is that Johnny Depp predicting my hurricane?

Oh shush I ain't Johnny Depp. I got a name, lol.

In my final forecast for Gustav I had to keep it at a Cat 2/3 due to the conditions. I just can't go to Category 4. It's a rarity at landfall for that and you know it.

I'm seeing other opinions that concur. I suppose the NHC decides to err on the side of caution.

"One of the keys with Katrina wasn't strength at landfall, but how long it stayed a Cat 5 over the Gulf, giving it plenty of time to build a huge storm surge"

Yeah, I thought that as well. He was going too fast...


*note: In another life I would've been a meteorologist

This is the first time I've ever seen a barometeric pressure map...especially an animated one!


I LOVE this model!!


<edit>
He was going too fast...
I mean Gustav

I agree with NHC in their forecast for "one" reason.

They have to look at what the "other side" of the problem is. "WHAT IF?" and that is fine. What if it goes into a Cat 4-5 unexpected? They have to prepare even for a smaller hit because of Katrina. They have a "Track" record with media etc and they need to put a window on their forecast to keep it solid...


Projection Cat 3 would be a window from them of Cat 2 to Cat 4 damage. Always a median because of what it "could" do.

What about it is she cares enough and was kind enough to put it up for ppl to see. I believe she wanted your opinion.

I answer anything, lol. Can you point me to the link or thread? If it was about Hannah my primary concern is the Carolinas not really FL.

Im back - with more bs info on Gustav

Thread: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! (Page 43)

If you are talking to me, she put it on this thread.. no it wasn't necessarily about hannah.. I think the last post on the previous page.. ty..