HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!! | |
Da fuq User ID: 16258666 United States 11/06/2012 03:10 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27142167 Portugal 11/06/2012 03:24 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 347 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2012 VALID 12Z TUE NOV 06 2012 - 12Z THU NOV 08 2012 ...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR... ...ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AS AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE... A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. AS A BLOCKING RIDGE ANCHORS THE OPEN ATLANTIC...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GAIN LATITUDE WITH LITTLE SHIFT TO THE EAST. THE COASTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP WILL DEFINITELY BE A HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND PRODUCER WHILE CHURNING UP THE SEAS. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER MAY BE NUDGED OFFSHORE A BIT FURTHER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WHICH WOULD LESSEN THE IMPACTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE SETTING UP TO THE NORTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL WEDGE ITSELF ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS FROM DELAWARE UP TO MAINE. THIS CURRENTLY INCLUDES SOME MAJOR METROPOLITAN CITIES INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA...NEW YORK CITY...AND BOSTON WHERE A FEW INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. KEEP IN MIND THAT THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN CHANGING WHICH WOULD ULTIMATELY ALTER THE IMPACTS TO THE NORTHEAST. FOR THE LATEST THOUGHTS ON MODEL GUIDANCE...PLEASE VISIT THE HPC MODEL DIAGNOSTICS DISCUSSION ON THE HPC WEBSITE UNDER THE DISCUSSIONS HEADER. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27142167 Portugal 11/06/2012 03:29 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | 1 minJoe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi Remember heaviest snows focused in areas southeast of halloween areas. Trees weakened from Sandy. I AM NOT PLAYING THIS DOWN! 2 minJoe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi I have an ugly forecast, have had that all the time But if Nam is right, this storm would knock out as much power as last year storm 4 minJoe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi If correct, 18z nam run, which has again shifted west is a disaster. 1-2 million people will have power knocked out by snow, coast raked |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27142167 Portugal 11/06/2012 03:44 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | 5 minJoe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi So this is the storm missing the coast.. over 2" of precip,alot of it snow in Jersey and gale to storm winds at coast [link to twitter.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27142167 Portugal 11/06/2012 03:52 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | SYSTEMS MERGING ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NOR'EASTER MOVING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST ========================================= PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS COMPROMISE WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE SINCE LAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FROM A SOLUTION WHICH SHOWED ONE LARGE, PHASED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH TO A PATTERN SHOWING GREATER SEPARATION ALOFT/MORE STREAMS OF THE WESTERLIES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA, WHICH HAS CAUSED A SURFACE LOW TRACK WHICH HAS WAVERED FROM FAIRLY OFFSHORE (THEN INTO MAINE) TO A MORE COASTAL TRACK BACK TO A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK (INCLUDING MAINE) OVER THE PAST SIX DAYS. BINARY/FUJIWARA INTERACTION IS PLAYING A LARGE ROLE WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM WHICH DROPS CONFIDENCE TO BELOW AVERAGE AS THIS TYPE OF INTERACTION CAN CREATE MODERATE TO LARGE RUN-TO-RUN AND DAY-TO-DAY DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE UNTIL THE PROCESS IS UNDERWAY. THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS SIMILAR SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE 12Z UKMET SHOWING THE QUICKEST/MOST EASTERLY SOLUTION WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THIS CYCLONE. THERE IS NO STABLE FEATURE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM TO HELP DETERMINE ITS LATITUDE IN A TELECONNECTION SENSE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE NORTHERN STREAM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE. DEPTH-WISE, ITS TRACK NEAR THE GULF STREAM INTO WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN A FAIRLY LOW PRESSURE, ULTIMATELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 980S HPA (BUT WELL SHY OF SANDY'S VERY LOW PRESSURE). A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS (WITH A SOMEWHAT DEEPER CENTRAL PRESSURE) REMAINS THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 27142167 Portugal 11/06/2012 04:06 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | 37 sRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue 4-km NAM is off the chain, 972 mb in 18-hours, tight-inner core, near major hurricane force winds. wtf? [link to twitter.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27142167 Portugal 11/06/2012 04:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | 37 sRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue Quoting: Luisport 4-km NAM is off the chain, 972 mb in 18-hours, tight-inner core, near major hurricane force winds. wtf? [link to twitter.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 26687891 United States 11/06/2012 04:15 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27142167 Portugal 11/06/2012 04:15 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | NAM-WRF 4km says to hell with Nor'easter, goes tropical with near-major hurricane. Unbelievable model run. [link to twitter.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27142167 Portugal 11/06/2012 04:18 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | 2 minJoe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi Nam feedback frenzy develops warm core rogue storm within cold overall envelope. Similar to nov 1968 but 150 further east Nasty beast 5 minJoe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi Nam develops almost hurricane like feature in ne coastal waters.. with excessive snow acc forecast S Jersey [link to twitter.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1319233 United States 11/06/2012 04:20 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27142167 Portugal 11/06/2012 04:23 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | 1 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue NMM-core of 12z NCEP 5-km WRF (similar to NAM-4km WRF nest), also agrees on warm-seclusion, impacts same as hurricane. [link to twitter.com] 3 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue ARW-core of 12z NCEP 5-km WRF showed a hurricane off Jersey coast. [link to twitter.com] |
DoorBert User ID: 857877 United States 11/06/2012 04:26 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Actually NAM is showing 45 knots on the surface on the south Jersey shore and 70 knots at about 1000' altitude. Most likely winds on the surface will gust to hurricane force winds. [link to www.twisterdata.com] At this point, I believe NAM now more so than EURO or GFS since it is designed to hone in on time frames of 72 hours or less. |
DoorBert User ID: 870568 United States 11/06/2012 04:28 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Just coming in on the end of its forecast period now. [link to www.twisterdata.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27142167 Portugal 11/06/2012 04:30 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Actually NAM is showing 45 knots on the surface on the south Jersey shore and 70 knots at about 1000' altitude. Quoting: DoorBert Most likely winds on the surface will gust to hurricane force winds. [link to www.twisterdata.com] At this point, I believe NAM now more so than EURO or GFS since it is designed to hone in on time frames of 72 hours or less. |
DoorBert User ID: 857877 United States 11/06/2012 04:31 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Interesting, SREF starts to dissipate it when it gets south of Long Island. [link to www.spc.noaa.gov] So, models are still not all on board with this. |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 27142167 Portugal 11/06/2012 04:37 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | COASTAL WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 413 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012 MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY OUT 20 NM OFFSHORE INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND...LONG ISLAND BAYS AND NEW YORK HARBOR ANZ345-070930- SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY- 413 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. WAVES 2 TO 3 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM LATE. .WED...NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT...BECOMING N 30 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 55 KT. WAVES AROUND 3 FT. RAIN. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM. .WED NIGHT...N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 KT. WAVES AROUND 3 FT. RAIN. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM. .THU...N WINDS 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT...DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WAVES 3 TO 5 FT. SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. .THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. WAVES 2 TO 3 FT. .FRI...NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WAVES AROUND 2 FT. .FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. WAVES AROUND 2 FT IN THE EVENING...THEN 1 FT OR LESS. .SAT...N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING E. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS. .SUN...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS. $$ |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 27142167 Portugal 11/06/2012 04:42 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | 49 sRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue For only a week after Sandy, this as a 30-hour forecast is stunning (even if completely botched/wrong). Can't prepare. [link to twitter.com] |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 27142167 Portugal 11/06/2012 04:52 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 327 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012 ...LIGHT SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTIES... NJZ002-NYZ067-070430- /O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0007.121107T1100Z-121108T1100Z/ WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE- 327 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY. * LOCATIONS...ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTIES. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. * WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. * VISIBILITIES...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO UNDER 1 MILE AT TIMES. * TIMING...WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * IMPACTS...A COMBINATION OF SNOW...GUSTY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING COULD MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS COMBINATION ALSO COULD BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ MALOIT |
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