The Deep Water Horizon BP blowout and things we must come to terms with....

It would take 7 years for the oil deposit below the Deepwater Horizon well to empty if left alone.

Estimated by BP to hold 50 million barrels, the seam of oil has emptied as much as 740,000 barrels (one barrel is 42 gallons), or about 1.5 percent of the total.

Because of the immense pressures of the earth's innards, geologists say, the deposit will completely unload into the Gulf unless the Deepwater Horizon well is capped.


If the area of the spill is 90 by 130 miles, then the estimate of 740,000 barrels is far too low IMO.

BP worst case estimate is 2,450,000 barrels.

I still don't think that's close. I did the math earlier, I think it's solid.

Arguments could be given for a thickness of the oil spill being less than 1 inch, that's possible I guess. The media could have reported the size wrong, but that doesn't seem likely, the satellite photos tend to corroborate it's size. The rest of the math is straight forward and I got a low-end estimate of about 5 billion barrels.

EDIT: BP's estimate can't be correct. For theirs to be right, the average thickness of the oil spill would be 1/2000th of an inch. Would that be able to be seen on a satellite photo? Sad part is, when I originally did the math, I chose 1 inch because it was easy to work with, I actually thought the average thickness of the spill would be more like 3 to 6 inches.

EDIT 2: Sorry, BP is just flat out wrong on this one.

yep before or after it rids itself of humans?

And all the rest of life be damned right?

My husband works in a job with alot of heavy piping. He says that they have used liquid nitrogen to freeze pipes that were full of product to repair otherwise unstopable leaks.

Would this be possible five thousand feet deep into the ocean?

It would take 7 years for the oil deposit below the Deepwater Horizon well to empty if left alone.

Estimated by BP to hold 50 million barrels, the seam of oil has emptied as much as 740,000 barrels (one barrel is 42 gallons), or about 1.5 percent of the total.

Because of the immense pressures of the earth's innards, geologists say, the deposit will completely unload into the Gulf unless the Deepwater Horizon well is capped.


Earth is a big girl, she can take care of herself. Humans are adaptable. We'll have hard times, and seafood will be expensive for a while, but the very vast majority of us will live. What it does to the other living creatures on this globe is anybody's guess.

It would take 7 years for the oil deposit below the Deepwater Horizon well to empty if left alone.

Estimated by BP to hold 50 million barrels, the seam of oil has emptied as much as 740,000 barrels (one barrel is 42 gallons), or about 1.5 percent of the total.

Because of the immense pressures of the earth's innards, geologists say, the deposit will completely unload into the Gulf unless the Deepwater Horizon well is capped.


If the area of the spill is 90 by 130 miles, then the estimate of 740,000 barrels is far too low IMO.

BP worst case estimate is 2,450,000 barrels.

I still don't think that's close. I did the math earlier, I think it's solid.

Arguments could be given for a thickness of the oil spill being less than 1 inch, that's possible I guess. The media could have reported the size wrong, but that doesn't seem likely, the satellite photos tend to corroborate it's size. The rest of the math is straight forward and I got a low-end estimate of about 5 billion barrels.

EDIT: BP's estimate can't be correct. For theirs to be right, the average thickness of the oil spill would be 1/2000th of an inch. Would that be able to be seen on a satellite photo? Sad part is, when I originally did the math, I chose 1 inch because it was easy to work with, I actually thought the average thickness of the spill would be more like 3 to 6 inches.

EDIT 2: Sorry, BP is just flat out wrong on this one.



Dan, your estimate is correct :)

**let's not forget the 5 billion cubic feet of natural gas**

It would take 7 years for the oil deposit below the Deepwater Horizon well to empty if left alone.

Estimated by BP to hold 50 million barrels, the seam of oil has emptied as much as 740,000 barrels (one barrel is 42 gallons), or about 1.5 percent of the total.

Because of the immense pressures of the earth's innards, geologists say, the deposit will completely unload into the Gulf unless the Deepwater Horizon well is capped.


If the area of the spill is 90 by 130 miles, then the estimate of 740,000 barrels is far too low IMO.

BP worst case estimate is 2,450,000 barrels.

I still don't think that's close. I did the math earlier, I think it's solid.

Arguments could be given for a thickness of the oil spill being less than 1 inch, that's possible I guess. The media could have reported the size wrong, but that doesn't seem likely, the satellite photos tend to corroborate it's size. The rest of the math is straight forward and I got a low-end estimate of about 5 billion barrels.

EDIT: BP's estimate can't be correct. For theirs to be right, the average thickness of the oil spill would be 1/2000th of an inch. Would that be able to be seen on a satellite photo? Sad part is, when I originally did the math, I chose 1 inch because it was easy to work with, I actually thought the average thickness of the spill would be more like 3 to 6 inches.

EDIT 2: Sorry, BP is just flat out wrong on this one.


Are you talking about the plume? I thought they were measuring that in terms of FEET thick!

It would take 7 years for the oil deposit below the Deepwater Horizon well to empty if left alone.

Estimated by BP to hold 50 million barrels, the seam of oil has emptied as much as 740,000 barrels (one barrel is 42 gallons), or about 1.5 percent of the total.

Because of the immense pressures of the earth's innards, geologists say, the deposit will completely unload into the Gulf unless the Deepwater Horizon well is capped.



I think Matt Simmons has estimated that it will flow for 24 years if left unchecked.

A casing cutter is a shaped charge that leaves a smooth edge on the casing. They are very simple, another of those thing that only ppl in an industry that uses them are aware of their existence. One of these will snip that riser off and leave a regular opening to re-enter or slip over. This is the normal method, don't understand the delay.

Ok people...there are a few things we need to come to terms with regarding this ongoing disaster.....and they ain't pretty...but we really need to come to grips with a grim situation here....

First of all make no mistake, this blown out well is a very difficult problem...No, all the "Plans" like...how come we just don't sink a battle ship on it?....why not stick a Kevlar balloon in it?.,...hey dudes..all we gotta do is fire hemp into it!...it'll do it!....no...no they won't work, sorry....I wish they would work, but they won't... and all the really sincere intentions of "Why don't we just try it!" are not only going to fail again, they may very well make things worse...

We have watched the "outhouse"..the "tophat"...and the "Top Kill" with a junk shot cluster all fail...the heavy mud kill method is one of the tried and true techniques to kill an uncontrolled well...and we have watched it fail...I know this is before they announce that...but it has already failed...BP knows this...they just do not want to tell us yet...but the news will come...

I want to make this short....short for me anyway, lol...and shorter than my other massive thread because you all should be somewhat versed in the dynamics of this well situation by now...so with that said...what comes next...and what can WE do...

First and foremost?...we can raise our voices to STOP WHAT THEY HAVE COMING NEXT...and if you felt helpless up until now?...well...here is your chance to make a difference...

The next move is to saw the top of the bop off...actually the top of the LMRP behind the point we have all seen the riser bent/kinked over the last few days blasting out whatever flow of fluid there was at the time...mud...oil and gas...who the hell can really tell at any one time..,..even the people who are supposed to be in charge don't even know what is going on....typical..

What they will do is use a diamond wire saw to cut off the top where that bent over pipe is connected...by now you should be able to figure what will immediately happen...all the kinked pipe restrictions to that massive pressure behind it?...they will be gone...the well will virtually be a wide open gusher at that point....we can ponder the finer details within the replies to this, but simply and esentially?...that is what will happen...they will saw off most of everything that is holding this well back from gushing to it's full potential...

This of course is meant to be a very temporary condition...Oh we will move in Grommet fixor right away and we will live happily ever after...YAY!...just like cofferdam-out house.. top hat... top kill... junk shot...we were all supposed to live happily ever after once those most awesome contraptions were deployed too...didn't work out that way did it..

The difference with those failed fixes?....they didn't unleash or even increase the full fury of this well...however...this newest one will...they are running out of non-destructive cures...and in fact...have run out...

By now you can probably see where I am going...what will happen if this next "Plan"....what are we on now?....plan-J?....lost track...but, what will happen if and when this next plan fails? what will we be left with?....we will be left with a well that is completely blown out...gushing to near or at it's full potential which BP themselves estimated to be 162,000 BARRELS...Not "gallons", but barrels per day...that is 3 Exxon valdez' a week...it is a worst case scenario and do you trust BP engineering to be right about that HUGE number?....it could easily be much worse and even THEY will tell you that is an estimate....IMO it would likely be worse...maybe 200,000 barrels a day flooding out with nothing that can stop it...and then?...the relief wells which are the best chance to kill this well becomes MORE DIFFICULT to make work...what if takes 3 then?...we will be sucking 5x the oil for another 90 days from the time they find that out....and that is something we cannot live with...you think it is bad now???? LOL!!!!....I don't like to laugh at this, but what we have now?...it WOULD be a joke compared to a 4 or 5 fold increase...and that is a very real and reasonable potential compared to what we are getting slammed in the face with now....and right now?...it's pretty fuckin bad....

So we are faced with a decision...we are at a cross roads and what do we do?...well...what I will do is contact every representative and inform and try to convince as many people as I can that this next "Fix" cannot be allowed...

Look guys we all know more or less that our fuckin govt is useless...however one thing they CAN do is say no to this..and not allow it...they can get in the way...in fact?...they are pretty good at that and it might be the ONLY they actually do well...if enough people scream?...maybe our worthless "leader" will put a stop to this....because the next "oooh wow, well we didn't see THAT comin!...lol...hey now that one REALLY didn't work!, lol, deploy plan-Q! woot!"...is going to be worse news than most of us are prepared for...

We all know the system holding back the full out gusher is deteriorating....myself as well as many others said this would happen because it is impossible for it not to happen, you have seen it happening...it is happening...this cannot be denied...however after watching it?....I think we have the time to hold off...it'll maybe even be close to when the relief wells can make it....and if I'm wrong?...well ok fine....so do the Grommet sucker THEN...it will be the same situation...the riser will erode and fail...or they saw it off and the results are the same...so do plan-J after that happens, but if Plan-J fails like all the others?...at least we bought another month...or weeks at least...and the time we buy carries a two edged sword...because this Blow Out Preventer is not designed to handle a full rushing well...and it won't handle it for long...they didn't tell you that?...surpise surpise....

So I suggest we accept the devil we know rather than the devil we don't....yes we will have the same amount of poison spewing we have now, but we won't have 5 times as much overnight and if the next fail fails like all the rest?...we will be living with a 5x nightmare for who knows how long...and a 5x nightmare that is more difficult to fix...

So that's it...

Obama isn't going to make this call if we the people do not scream for them to stop...and we need to be armed with the facts to make sure that screaming hits the ball...face the facts guys he doesn't give a fuck and is going to use this disaster to move his own agenda and use it will be ALL he does...he won't do a thing to actually help unless it becomes a "popularity gain"...

Tell BP to stop, they are taking too big a risk, they have not had a success yet and this is too dangerous to trust them with. We all understand the well is leaking, but find another way that doesn't saw it wide fuckin open and turn a bad leak into a wide open gusher... please...because if you fail at this next "plan"?...we are the ones that have to live in it...and we have enough to deal with already...

Sorry, bub, but you breathe oxygen and the world's oceans supply most of the oxygen.

On my lunch hour and iphone and don't have enough time to scroll through this posts in this little phone.
Can anyone tell me if the big cut has been done yet?
Thanks. :)

On my lunch hour and iphone and don't have enough time to scroll through this posts in this little phone.
Can anyone tell me if the big cut has been done yet?
Thanks. :)

It would appear that sanity has taken over finally and they aren't going to saw this thing wide open!

On my lunch hour and iphone and don't have enough time to scroll through this posts in this little phone.
Can anyone tell me if the big cut has been done yet?
Thanks. :)

It would appear that sanity has taken over finally and they aren't going to saw this thing wide open!

I HATE TO TELL YOU THIS, BRO...THE INSANITY HAS JUST BEGUN...WAIT AND SEE!

On my lunch hour and iphone and don't have enough time to scroll through this posts in this little phone.
Can anyone tell me if the big cut has been done yet?
Thanks. :)

It would appear that sanity has taken over finally and they aren't going to saw this thing wide open!

I HATE TO TELL YOU THIS, BRO...THE INSANITY HAS JUST BEGUN...WAIT AND SEE!

One step farther away from jumping into the abyss...I'll take it!

On my lunch hour and iphone and don't have enough time to scroll through this posts in this little phone.
Can anyone tell me if the big cut has been done yet?
Thanks. :)

It would appear that sanity has taken over finally and they aren't going to saw this thing wide open!

I HATE TO TELL YOU THIS, BRO...THE INSANITY HAS JUST BEGUN...WAIT AND SEE!

One step farther away from jumping into the abyss...I'll take it!

I think they are still committed to sawing it.

Here's another concern...they are sawing it with a solid blade. As this kerfs in, it will block flow, resulting in a big pressure surge and another damn potential failure below the bop.

On my lunch hour and iphone and don't have enough time to scroll through this posts in this little phone.
Can anyone tell me if the big cut has been done yet?
Thanks. :)

It would appear that sanity has taken over finally and they aren't going to saw this thing wide open!

I HATE TO TELL YOU THIS, BRO...THE INSANITY HAS JUST BEGUN...WAIT AND SEE!

One step farther away from jumping into the abyss...I'll take it!

I think they are still committed to sawing it.

Here's another concern...they are sawing it with a solid blade. As this kerfs in, it will block flow, resulting in a big pressure surge and another damn potential failure below the bop.

I think they are gonna do even better than that...here's a graphic of the "Plan".....

If you cannot see it on your phone?...it shows the entire riser pipe crimped off closed about 60 ft from the bop...

[link to www.bp.com]

On my lunch hour and iphone and don't have enough time to scroll through this posts in this little phone.
Can anyone tell me if the big cut has been done yet?
Thanks. :)

It would appear that sanity has taken over finally and they aren't going to saw this thing wide open!

I HATE TO TELL YOU THIS, BRO...THE INSANITY HAS JUST BEGUN...WAIT AND SEE!

One step farther away from jumping into the abyss...I'll take it!

I think they are still committed to sawing it.

Here's another concern...they are sawing it with a solid blade. As this kerfs in, it will block flow, resulting in a big pressure surge and another damn potential failure below the bop.

I think they are gonna do even better than that...here's a graphic of the "Plan".....

If you cannot see it on your phone?...it shows the entire riser pipe crimped off closed about 60 ft from the bop...

[link to www.bp.com]

Well just lay in the dirt with your dick in the air...surrender...sounds like what you want anyway...


What makes you think we have any control over this thing, or that we ever did?

2000 year-old prophecies, prophecies committed to paper and parchment 2000 years ago, predicted that humanity would see a day when the seas turned black and a third of all life in the seas died.

Now, as recently as 100 years ago, mankind would have not even been able to imagine how to cause such a thing to occur. But now we have not only imagined it, but have started a process in motion that really realistically has the potential to make that prophecy come true.

Do you really think that is just a coincidence? Really?

The prophecy is not imaginary. It really exists, and has for millennia. Likewise, the oil spill really exists as well, and really has the potential to kill a very substantial portion of our planetary oceans. They both exist, and the connection between them exists as well.

The only question is, is that connection merely coincidental?

If it is coincidental, which honestly seems like a longshot hypothesis to me, then we might conceivably still have a shot at reacquiring control over this gusher. But if it is NOT coincidental, then we are not in control of this at all, and never have been, and the seas will turn black regardless of what we might try.

I RESPECT YOUR POST.
PLEASE TELL ME WHY THEY COULDN'T REVERSE FLOW AFTER THEY FAILED TOP-KILL. DRAW INSTEAD OF PUMP.